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Rain or not, I am loving this weather. Our last respite of cool weather before Wxman57 and his band of hot folks rule the day until October....

I'm a bit confused. The NWS indicated that most of the rain would be inland with very slim chances along the coast....and yet all the rain right now is along the coast with the surface front.

If the 12Z GFS is correct, we'd see some nice rains/storms starting around the 11th. I'm not holding my breath on that though...

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GFS is correct, we'd see some nice rains/storms starting around the 11th. I'm not holding my breath on that though...

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Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 3 " and Convective: 1.18 "

That would be great! Maybe something will still be alive by then to enjoy it.

jasons wrote:I'm a bit confused. The NWS indicated that most of the rain would be inland with very slim chances along the coast....and yet all the rain right now is along the coast with the surface front.

Earlier, all the rain was located well behind the surface front (across NE TX). Currently, a small band of showers has developed right along the surface front (along the coast). Rain chances have obviously risen south and east of Houston, but not here in Houston.

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GFS is correct, we'd see some nice rains/storms starting around the 11th. I'm not holding my breath on that though...

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Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 3 " and Convective: 1.18 "

The GFS has been doing that JUST beyond the high-resolution point in the run for weeks now. Remember it had that big rain event for Easter Weekend? Then the weekend after. It's always at around 10 days out. I'll believe it when I see it.

Why in the world did that front jump right over Houston...?

Tell me there will be more than what's to our south/southeast.
I was all fired up thinking we'd at least hear a clap of thunder.
Sheesh........

That's good reasoning, Ed. As one of my coworkers observed recently - our climate this year is very similar to Corpus Christi most years. That SSW-SW flow aloft comes over land for us, but just east of us it cuts across the Gulf. That's why it's raining in Beaumont now. Just too dry aloft here. 12Z GFS has less than 0.1" of rain for IAH for the next 192 hrs (8 days), and most of that is today. Doesn't look like we'll even see that much rain.

That makes sense, for us. So, why are they getting plenty of rain up in the DFW area? Their flow is out of the SW/SSW over land too. It's like we're just trapped here in the middle.

San Angelo area under a Frost Advisory...late in the year to see this strong of a front...

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BRING
A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LYING AREAS FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

jasons wrote:That makes sense, for us. So, why are they getting plenty of rain up in the DFW area? Their flow is out of the SW/SSW over land too. It's like we're just trapped here in the middle.

There's a LOT more vertical lift up there in Dallas. Not enough lift here to break the cap.

wxman57 wrote:

jasons wrote:That makes sense, for us. So, why are they getting plenty of rain up in the DFW area? Their flow is out of the SW/SSW over land too. It's like we're just trapped here in the middle.

There's a LOT more vertical lift up there in Dallas. Not enough lift here to break the cap.

I notice the cap is always over Houston, but low pressure systems keep them in check, which is why El Nino is wetter. La Nina causes the jet stream to go further north depriving us the RAID to kill the cockroach cap.

What about a wave of low pressure with a warm front attached on it?

I left the office and Bellaire & the West Loop and it was 81. Pulled into the driveway and it was 63. 56 here now...crazy.

We can't even get this on Halloween...

Pitiful......don't believe we saw one drop around here. Now we'll get cool and dry, BAD.
Ed, that glass is bone dry.

Bone dry is right. I'm speechless really...I mean REALLY!!!!!!

Okay, when is the next good chance of NOT getting rain in central and southeast Texas?

52F this morning and even a very very very light sprinkle. Enjoy the cool weather because the heat looks to return with a vengeance next week.