April 2023

[DoctorMu]

In the next week, I think the main rain event could be east of CLL. Houston could benefit from the stalled front. We *might* get enough rain so I don't have to water.

There could be another tornado outbreak in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois:

[DoctorMu]

Chance of rain just dropped from 50% to 30% here in CLL for today. No surprise.

[Cpv17]

In the next week, I think the main rain event could be east of CLL. Houston could benefit from the stalled front. We *might* get enough rain so I don't have to water.

There could be another tornado outbreak in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois:

College Station could get several inches of rain this week. Houston as well.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu euro and GFS both give CS a ton of rain , pretty good agreement

[TexasBreeze]

Glad that phpBB server issue is resolved on here and S2k! There was no plan C for seeing posts since both sites were out.

[Cpv17]

Glad that phpBB server issue is resolved on here and S2k! There was no plan C for seeing posts since both sites were out.

How do you know what happened?

[don]

The 12Z Euro. The Euro has been pretty consistent with the front stalling around the I-59 corridor.

Screenshot 2023-04-02 at 13-53-13 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

[srainhoutx]

Glad that phpBB server issue is resolved on here and S2k! There was no plan C for seeing posts since both sites were out.

How do you know what happened?

It happened. Glad both sites are back up and running smoothly!

[Stratton20]

Interesting to see global models consistently spitting out pretty high rain fall totals for the region, will be very interesting to see the mesoscale model outputs once they get into range, stalled fronts almost always spell flooding issues around here even with dry grounds

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu euro and GFS both give CS a ton of rain , pretty good agreement

Count me as highly skeptical. If the front stalls over CLL, then maybe.

This has been one of those springs where the energy has been ripping east and north of here. Houston will see significant rain on the stalled front.

NOAA dropped rain chances later in the week for CLL to 50%, peaking at 70% Thursday night. 80-90% in Houston for days.

[DoctorMu]

I know y'all want to wishcast a lot of rain for CLL this week. My decades of living here and observing spring/severe weather patterns says hold my beer.



aka broken line of showers...

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu euro and GFS both give CS a ton of rain , pretty good agreement

Yeah, I agree. I think it’s almost a lock at this point.

[Cpv17]

Looks pretty good:

[Stratton20]

Havent see those colors in a long time! Beautiful!! Also the WPC has a 2/4 or slight risk of excessive rainfall at the day 5 outlook for most of SE Texas

[DoctorMu]

We'll see. I think I-10 and south are a lock.

NWS weekend crew is betting on the location of the stalled front in 4-6 days. That forecast could change tomorrow and Tuesday.

[DoctorMu]

Most of the rain I'm seeing in CLL on the Ensembles, Euro, GFS are dependent on disturbances riding the front and SJT in a Thursday night - Monday time frame on the cold side, rather than the initial passage or warm sector.

CMC sees a lot less of the back door stuff after FROPA. We're days away - it should be interesting.

[Cpv17]

The EPS just trended even wetter for southeast TX.

[DoctorMu]

Tornado radar couplet near Marlin, NNW of CLL on Hwy 6.

[DoctorMu]

The EPS just trended even wetter for southeast TX.

Heavy gradient SE of Hwy 1*5.

[Stratton20]

GFS still has 5 inches for me, bring it on!