TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[biggerbyte]

This will end up in either Mexico or Texas. The way things look right now, it could go either way. However, as the next few days progress, I'd put money on it looking more like somewhere in Texas. Several days for conditions to flip flop, so all Gulf residents should stay tuned. There is a lot of untapped energy out there. Depending on the path this takes into the Gulf, there could potentially be a big problem for somebody. It will interesting to see how all the players come together to give this system its final destination.

[Andrew]

This will end up in either Mexico or Texas. The way things look right now, it could go either way. However, as the next few days progress, I'd put money on it looking more like somewhere in Texas. Several days for conditions to flip flop, so all Gulf residents should stay tuned. There is a lot of untapped energy out there. Depending on the path this takes into the Gulf, there could potentially be a big problem for somebody. It will interesting to see how all the players come together to give this system its final destination.

Why would you say Texas?

[Ptarmigan]

92L has me concerned. The Caribbean is very warm right now. Once 92L spins up into Julia, this could be a very intense hurricane. We should really keep an eye on this one, besides Igor. Igor's weakening could actually be a bad thing since it allows it go more westerly.

[Andrew]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAVA IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT EITHER REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER/KIMBERLAIN

[biggerbyte]

This will end up in either Mexico or Texas. The way things look right now, it could go either way. However, as the next few days progress, I'd put money on it looking more like somewhere in Texas. Several days for conditions to flip flop, so all Gulf residents should stay tuned. There is a lot of untapped energy out there. Depending on the path this takes into the Gulf, there could potentially be a big problem for somebody. It will interesting to see how all the players come together to give this system its final destination.

Why would you say Texas?

Hi, Andrew

There are a couple of possible scenarios right now.

One is that this system gets drawn more northerly, taking it over Cuba and into the Bahamas before getting pushed back westerly with a building ridge. The other is that stays on a westerly route all the way to Mexico. Note that I did not say where in Texas. Even a more southerly route like Alex took leaves a fine line between northern Mexico and Southern Texas.

[Andrew]

This will end up in either Mexico or Texas. The way things look right now, it could go either way. However, as the next few days progress, I'd put money on it looking more like somewhere in Texas. Several days for conditions to flip flop, so all Gulf residents should stay tuned. There is a lot of untapped energy out there. Depending on the path this takes into the Gulf, there could potentially be a big problem for somebody. It will interesting to see how all the players come together to give this system its final destination.

Why would you say Texas?

Hi, Andrew

There are a couple of possible scenarios right now.

One is that this system gets drawn more northerly, taking it over Cuba and into the Bahamas before getting pushed back westerly with a building ridge. The other is that stays on a westerly route all the way to Mexico. Note that I did not say where in Texas. Even a more southerly route like Alex took leaves a fine line between northern Mexico and Southern Texas.

Alright cool I just wanted to know why you though that. Tonight's 00z run's should be telling.

[biggerbyte]

Awesome! Might be some interesting read. Right now the models are for entertainment mainly. Scenario building is always fun. So much can change over the long range.

[Andrew]

Awesome! Might be some interesting read. Right now the models are for entertainment mainly. Scenario building is always fun. So much can change over the long range.

Of course. I look at them right now for the overall pattern (Ridges and trofs)

[Ptarmigan]

If 92L moved more to the northwest and over the Caribbean as some models suggest. It has plenty of fuel.

[Andrew]

NAM 48H:

[Andrew]

84h

[Andrew]

GFS 30h:

[Andrew]

[Andrew]

GFS doesn't see it.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro (500mb) suggests 92L will be at least a TD/TS as it approaches the Yucatan at hour 168...

[srainhoutx]

At hour 240, the Euro does show what appears to be a TS/HU nearing Tampico or a bit S...HGX mentions as well...

THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT TRACKS SLOWLY WNW ACROSS A
VERY WARM CARIBBEAN. AM LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SOME
SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE YUCATAN NEXT
FRIDAY MOVING WEST OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGING OVER TX AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT MARINE
IMPACTS COULD BE POSSIBLE.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles suggests a track S of Jamaica into the Yucatan and on to the Gulf...

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Nice curving structure beginning to take shape...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100910 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  1200   100911  0000   100911  1200   100912  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  60.2W   13.5N  61.5W   14.0N  63.0W   14.7N  64.6W
BAMD    12.8N  60.2W   13.3N  62.0W   13.9N  64.1W   14.4N  66.3W
BAMM    12.8N  60.2W   13.4N  61.7W   13.9N  63.6W   14.5N  65.6W
LBAR    12.8N  60.2W   13.5N  61.6W   14.3N  63.4W   15.1N  65.4W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  1200   100913  1200   100914  1200   100915  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N  66.5W   16.0N  70.6W   16.8N  74.9W   17.6N  79.7W
BAMD    14.9N  68.7W   15.8N  73.4W   16.9N  78.0W   17.8N  83.3W
BAMM    15.0N  67.9W   15.9N  72.5W   17.0N  77.3W   18.0N  82.7W
LBAR    16.0N  67.6W   17.5N  72.5W   19.6N  76.6W   21.4N  79.9W
SHIP        63KTS          79KTS          86KTS          98KTS
DSHP        63KTS          79KTS          86KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  60.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.4N LONM12 =  59.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  57.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM