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Looking good for my biking chances, though. Got a new high-power (1400 lumen) light for my birthday that should set the Brays Bayou trail on fire. As for the Gulf, check out this web site for some good graphics on development potential:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Here's one of the graphics depicting the current instability of the Gulf vs. normal. Airmass out there is quite stable now, making it hard for something to develop:

Funny what a difference a day can make. Yesterday things looked promising for some home grown activity, not to mention a pattern change for the Atlantic systems to push more west. I had made a statement earlier on that the Atlantic storms go fish, Caribbean Storms learn spanish, and Gulf storms go poof. It looks like things are even more troublesome than that. The Gulf has been a beast this year. Will we ever get rain????? Arggggg! I give up on trying to forecast this unrelenting season. I've never seen such huge shifts in thinking from one day to the next.

We still need to watch Earl. In spite of the models saying otherwise, it looks to me like that pattern change will indeed come about. Earl will sail farther westward under the ridge. If he gets under the ridge over the s.e states, there will be no turn northward like and when depicted by the models. At that point the ball game changes. Folks in the Caribbean and Gulf become the focus. Let's watch to see if he gets to ride north behind Danielle at some point before the door slams shut. If not....

Still a bit noisy in the Gulf. HGX suggested higher rain chances near the coast and offshore for the weekend. We will see.

If this would all just shift west... A change is coming. Dwayne is getting impatient.

wxman57 wrote:Looking good for my biking chances, though. Got a new high-power (1400 lumen) light for my birthday that should set the Brays Bayou trail on fire. As for the Gulf, check out this web site for some good graphics on development potential:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Here's one of the graphics depicting the current instability of the Gulf vs. normal. Airmass out there is quite stable now, making it hard for something to develop:

Yesterday or today was your birthday, wxman57? Happy Birthday, man.

Still looking disturbed S of Lafayette...

The Gulf remains unsettled today. Even though the official word is nada, I'm not sure I agree. When we have something more than nothing in the tropics, it always bears watching. We are certainly seeing a trend.

Looks like shear is keeping this disturbance in check... so far...

Story of our lives, here lately..

Sunny and shear.

New Orleans AFD...snip...


.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTEND FROM NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY...TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TO NORTH
OF MOBILE AT 19Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON RADAR ABOUT 60NM TO THE SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY...MOVING WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DETECTED FROM
PASCAGOULA TO NEW ORLEANS TO THIBODAUX WITH ONE OF THE BANDS.

Wow! KLIX radar out of LA clearly shows a rotation over water south of the state. I'll get a better fix on it later this evening. It is heading westward. Rain!!!! Exciting!!!!


More later...

There's a definite trof axis offshore but I can't find an actual closed surface low center. All model projections take the rain northward into SE LA and MS over the weekend and leave us in the dry air. We may see an increase in onshore flow by Sunday which could result in a few PM thunderstorms if we're lucky. Fortunately, it doesn't look like there is much chance of tropical development out of this.

Didn't humberto spin off an old frontal boundary? I remember going to bed that night with just a disorganized mess in the gulf......by the next afternoon when I went to tropical class it was a full fledged tropical cyclone. Pretty impressive intensification in such a short period of time.

Humberto did spin up quickly, but this thing is not moving west, that was clearly a mis-statement - no need to get anybody hyped over it. All indications show (& have showed since much earlier today) that it's moving north.

OIC... We'll the point of view I had at the time looked like a very slow westward drift. That must not be the case now.

I think you are right, unome. I always thought all these professionals were seeing things.

A snipet from srain earlier today:

New Orleans AFD...snip...


.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTEND FROM NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY...TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TO NORTH
OF MOBILE AT 19Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON RADAR ABOUT 60NM TO THE SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY...MOVING WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DETECTED FROM
PASCAGOULA TO NEW ORLEANS TO THIBODAUX WITH ONE OF THE BANDS.

I guess I missed that, sorry. This from HGX discussion http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1 - good eyes BB, I stand corrected

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST IS WORKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY
AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM AROUND 0.60 INCHES UP NORTH TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST. DECIDED TO NOT BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK LOW AND
SEE WHAT IT GENERATES OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. BEST RAIN
CHANCE FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES MOVE INLAND AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO KICK
OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS...AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE AREA JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING STORMS EACH DAY. FOR THE WEEKEND AND ON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK...IT WILL BE WARM OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND AROUND 90
AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST COMMON.
SOME TEMPERATURE RELIEF MIGHT COME TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. 42
&&

From SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC AC 280600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF DRIFTS NWD. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.

This area is still drifting westward. I expect that we in S.E. Texas will finally get some more widespread rains at some point from this. I don't see any way around that, considering what LA radar is showing with this system. It appears to be getting slightly more together this morning, as the rotation is now visible on sat. as well.

One other thing.. It looks like there is yet another rotation just s.e. of Brownsville.