Wx Infinity Forums

Alright night crew. It's been a while and we have stuff to follow. Have fun and enjoy the new platform...

One good thing about Earl with respect to the NE Caribbean islands is that most of the strong wind will be north of the track, including all the hurricane-force winds, as it passes. So most likely, the BVI will be brushed by TS winds tomorrow night. Beyond then, a recurve between the U.S. and Bermuda is most likely.

Time for bed.

wxman57 wrote:One good thing about Earl with respect to the NE Caribbean islands is that most of the strong wind will be north of the track, including all the hurricane-force winds, as it passes. So most likely, the BVI will be brushed by TS winds tomorrow night. Beyond then, a recurve between the U.S. and Bermuda is most likely.

Time for bed.

Even though it is the NAM, it respectfully disagrees with your statement of a re-curve. Will be extremly interesting what the other models show.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290303
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...NEAR THE CENTER OF EARL.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1232.shtml



000
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tough day in the Islands...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 291457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A
DEVELOPING CDO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF
64 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE
EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS
SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT
EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL
AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 58.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.6N 60.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.3W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 69.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 37.0N 71.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

A trough of low pressure currently forecast to move off the east coast Friday will be the main determinant to whether or not Earl makes landfall on the US east coast. Being about 5 days out, models are going to be struggling with strength and timing of that system. A stronger and faster moving trough will likely pick up Earl and re-curve him out to sea just in time to avoid a major east coast landfall; however, as we all know, it is quite possible that the trough could be weaker than currently forecast or move slower and that would be very bad news...especially from North Carolina and points northward up the east coast. NWS Upton (NYC Weather Service) already is keeping a close eye on the storm. Below is a snippet from their AFD...

UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON...AS
MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AS
A RESULT HOW THEY HANDLE EARL. THE 12Z/28 ECMWF IS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION AND WAS FOLLOWED IN THE EXTENDED - THIS IS ALSO THE
OPTION SELECTED BY HPC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z/29 ECMWF
IS A CLEAR OUTLIER TO THE LEFT (CLOSER TO THE COAST) WITH EARL.

BASED ON 12Z/28 ECMWF WOULD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A 500 HPA TROUGH CROSSING
THE AREA. WITH THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE
NORTH...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH ITS
PASSAGE. FOR NOW GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY -
CONSISTENT WITH A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...WITH A COOLER AIRMASS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ON
SATURDAY...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...SO
EXPECT CHANGES...POSSIBLY QUITE SIGNIFICANT...AS TIME PROGRESSES.

SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD BRING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

Ptarmigan wrote:I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

What that forecast doesn't quite show yet is the sharp trof nearing the East U.S. Coast by the time Earl moves north of 35N. That should result in a NNE-NE turn between days 4-5.

wxman57 wrote: What that forecast doesn't quite show yet is the sharp trof nearing the East U.S. Coast by the time Earl moves north of 35N. That should result in a NNE-NE turn between days 4-5.

The East Coast should still keep an eye regardless. Better to be safe than sorry. Looks like Earl is intensifying. I would not be surprised if it becomes a major hurricane by tomorrow.

Earl is moving off to the west again. When will it do the turn.......?

Correction looks a little north of west.

full available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2352.shtml

800 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

A lot of assets flying tonight for Earl. Last vortex message...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 01:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 1:22:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°45'N 60°40'W (17.75N 60.6667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 89 miles (144 km) to the ENE (61°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,840m (9,318ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 46° at 79kts (From the NE at ~ 90.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.67 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the west to the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:44:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (321°) from the flight level center

000
WTNT42 KNHC 300236
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND
SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE
SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM
THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT
30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS
SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING
AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Earl is already moving WNW. Don't expect to notice a turn. It will just make a gradual change from WNW to NW over the next 24-36 hours.

Expected to become a major today http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1147.shtml


000
WTNT32 KNHC 301147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTCA82-TJSJ.shtml P.R. / V.I.


000
WTCA82 TJSJ 301117
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST... SOUTHEAST...EASTERN
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR... PONCE AND
VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUES FOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RIO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3N...LONGITUDE 62.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 170 MILES EAST
OF SAINT THOMAS VI...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAINT
CROIX VI OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. HURRICANE EARL IS
PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15
MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 105 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD MAINLY INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND MAINLAND PUERTO RICO
TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
EASTERN PASSAGES AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 900 AM AST ...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-311130-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.W.1007.100830T1117Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
717 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM POSITION.
WARNING WAS UPGRADED.
UPDATED TRACK.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 64 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 98 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT.


$$

with forecast & models - they look to be in pretty good agreement

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

Latest vortex message states the the eye is open to the W. Still an impressive Hurricane...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.