biggerbyte wrote:In order for some of the suggested tracks to become valid, the ridge is going to have to weaken and move away quit a bit. A Texas, to Texas LA border makes more sense at this point. Everybody in the western gulf should watch this carefully.
i totally agree with you. i just dont understand what these other people are seeing to make them believe this is going to plow through a high pressure to its north
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
749 PM AST MON JUL 19 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS REISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10 NM TO 19.5N...
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM...
* UNTIL 945 PM AST
* AT 745 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10 NM TO 19.5N...OR
ABOUT 24 NM NORTH OF CULEBRA...MOVING WEST AT 5 KNOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF
POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Yes, this is going to be one of those stubborn systems. If the ridge breaks down as much as some claim, then everyone in the gulf region should pay attention. I don't see it. If anything, I see it building back a bit towards weeks end. At least the oil spill is not a huge factor now to need to worry over.
biggerbyte wrote:Yes, this is going to be one of those stubborn systems. If the ridge breaks down as much as some claim, then everyone in the gulf region should pay attention. I don't see it. If anything, I see it building back a bit towards weeks end. At least the oil spill is not a huge factor now to need to worry over.
Couldn't be further from the truth.
Any track towards the Mancando well would have major implications on both the relief wells and current status of keeping it shut in.
biggerbyte wrote:Yes, this is going to be one of those stubborn systems. If the ridge breaks down as much as some claim, then everyone in the gulf region should pay attention. I don't see it. If anything, I see it building back a bit towards weeks end. At least the oil spill is nitba huge factor now to need to worry over.
I agree it will be fun and stressful to watch. Timing as always will be the biggest problem for predicting where this storm will go. The thing to also remember is that with Alex gfs did a pretty good job with the breaking down of the ridge but Alex was too far south to take advantage of the weakness. I think the best idea for predicting the track would be looking at a blend of the Euro and GFS. GFS didn't do good on the track but did have the good idea of what the big picture was going to be like.
As for the oil spill remember there is a lot of oil out there and if this storm becomes big it could really mess someone up and also the cap is only temporary and it would be terrible if this storm messed it up.
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biggerbyte wrote:Yes, this is going to be one of those stubborn systems. If the ridge breaks down as much as some claim, then everyone in the gulf region should pay attention. I don't see it. If anything, I see it building back a bit towards weeks end. At least the oil spill is not a huge factor now to need to worry over.
Couldn't be further from the truth.
Any track towards the Mancando well would have major implications on both the relief wells and current status of keeping it shut in.
I think you know exactly what I am talking about, Scotty boy. They capped the well. We don't have oil gushing into the gulf right now. That is a huge plus. I never said there would be no impact. All the work they still have to do out there was always secondary to stopping the leak in the first place. That includes the cleanup. There would/could be nothing worse than a hurricane passing over that area without that leak plugged.
biggerbyte wrote:Yes, this is going to be one of those stubborn systems. If the ridge breaks down as much as some claim, then everyone in the gulf region should pay attention. I don't see it. If anything, I see it building back a bit towards weeks end. At least the oil spill is nitba huge factor now to need to worry over.
As for the oil spill remember there is a lot of oil out there and if this storm becomes big it could really mess someone up and also the cap is only temporary and it would be terrible if this storm messed it up.
There has been some thoughts thrown around that some of the mild storminess from Alex and general weather has broken up the spill somewhat.
Right now the first relief well has about 100 feet vertically to drill. After finishing up with casing they will be ready to intercept. The second relief well has suspended operations as they use imaging to zero in on the original well and will remain suspended until they do in fact intercept. It would be a shame for any interruption being so close to nearing a possible completion of killing the well.
The other issue is how it's currently being shut it. They can't just open it back up and will take a day or two. So as it stands now they could be faced with some serious decision making depending on how 97l plays out.
biggerbyte wrote:Yes, this is going to be one of those stubborn systems. If the ridge breaks down as much as some claim, then everyone in the gulf region should pay attention. I don't see it. If anything, I see it building back a bit towards weeks end. At least the oil spill is not a huge factor now to need to worry over.
Couldn't be further from the truth.
Any track towards the Mancando well would have major implications on both the relief wells and current status of keeping it shut in.
I think you know exactly what I am talking about, Scotty boy. They capped the well. We don't have oil gushing into the gulf right now. That is a huge plus. I never said there would be no impact. All the work they still have to do out there was always secondary to stopping the leak in the first place. That includes the cleanup. There would/could be nothing worse than a hurricane passing over that area without that leak plugged.
Come on guys... Elementary here.
At least the oil spill is not a huge factor now to need to worry over.
Your words. Not mine. It was a irresponsible comment to make.
Nothing is secondary to the relief wells and both BP and the Government have been quite clear about this since abandoning the top kill procedure.
The current capping of the well is only a bonus and is not in fact the final solution.
Quite elementary, yes...
Back to 97l which may or may not have future implications on the well.
18z GFS has a general track towards the Upper Texas Coast
I wouldn't be suprised if this ends up riding the path straight into Mexico. The seasonal trend is your friend, and a large upper high still exists across the SE. If the models try to break down this ridge, it is likely in error as models have been way to generous with troughs traversing the Northern States...
Mr. T wrote:18z GFS has a general track towards the Upper Texas Coast
I wouldn't be suprised if this ends up riding the path straight into Mexico. The seasonal trend is your friend, and a large upper high still exists across the SE. If the models try to break down this ridge, it is likely in error as models have been way to generous with troughs traversing the Northern States...
I don't know T. Seems far enough N that the axis should at least keep gaining some lat as it progresses westward with the flow I looked at earlier.
Definitely agree about the models breaking down ridges to early.
