TD #02L Gulf of Mexico
0z GFS not showing 96L...at all out 42hrs
Must be the operational.
NHC's beloved 00z "TVCN" consensus model has 96L coming ashore between Galveston and Corpus, or just to the west of Freeport
Methinks this possible future tropical cyclone will probably make landfall further north than Alex, as the ridging across the Southern Plains will be much weaker than what was observed during Alex. I'm not naming any locations yet as we still do not have a definitive LLC center. A trough will be swinging through the Upper Midwest as 96L enters the Gulf. This could be enough to send 96L or whatever it will become on a more northerly course somewhere towards Texas or LA. I think enough ridging will be found across the SE US to (again) spare locations east of LA a direct landfall from 96L. Mucho tropical moisture will again be found all across the Gulf Coast because of it, however.
Methinks this possible future tropical cyclone will probably make landfall further north than Alex, as the ridging across the Southern Plains will be much weaker than what was observed during Alex. I'm not naming any locations yet as we still do not have a definitive LLC center. A trough will be swinging through the Upper Midwest as 96L enters the Gulf. This could be enough to send 96L or whatever it will become on a more northerly course somewhere towards Texas or LA. I think enough ridging will be found across the SE US to (again) spare locations east of LA a direct landfall from 96L. Mucho tropical moisture will again be found all across the Gulf Coast because of it, however.
Parallel shows potential system in the BOC @ 54.
Scott747 wrote:Parallel shows potential system in the BOC @ 54.
the ops show it in LA,AL at 54hr.....I would take the parallel over the ops on this one....funny how they are so far apart...
I love me some TVCN!Mr. T wrote:NHC's beloved 00z "TVCN" consensus model has 96L coming ashore between Galveston and Corpus, or just to the west of Freeport
Methinks this possible future tropical cyclone will probably make landfall further north than Alex, as the ridging across the Southern Plains will be much weaker than what was observed during Alex. I'm not naming any locations yet as we still do not have a definitive LLC center. A trough will be swinging through the Upper Midwest as 96L enters the Gulf. This could be enough to send 96L or whatever it will become on a more northerly course somewhere towards Texas or LA. I think enough ridging will be found across the SE US to (again) spare locations east of LA a direct landfall from 96L. Mucho tropical moisture will again be found all across the Gulf Coast because of it, however.
Can't argue with your initial thoughts. Crazy how such a return setup/possibilities could be in play so soon after Alex.
Ditch the ops Paul. I hardly even look at it anymore.Paul wrote:Scott747 wrote:Parallel shows potential system in the BOC @ 54.
the ops show it in LA,AL at 54hr.....I would take the parallel over the ops on this one....funny how they are so far apart...
Link for the parallel if you don't have it - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml
i have a funny feeling southeast texas may want to watch this one closely 
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Bluefalcon
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Figures........I'll be heading down to my Dad's house in Freeport on Wed. night for vacation at the beach and some fun in Galveston and Kemah.......or not.redfish1 wrote:i have a funny feeling southeast texas may want to watch this one closely
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
Looks like the 0z GFS parallel (ignoring the OP) brings 96L to around Brownsville, similar to the 12z Euro.Scott747 wrote:
I love me some TVCN!
Can't argue with your initial thoughts. Crazy how such a return setup/possibilities could be in play so soon after Alex.
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sleetstorm
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HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY, everyone!!! 
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Bluefalcon
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God bless America! And keep her safe.sleetstorm wrote:HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY, everyone!!!
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
A buoy measured a pressure drop within 96L.
Something tells me it will develop soon.
Something tells me it will develop soon.
Amen to that!Bluefalcon wrote:God bless America! And keep her safe.sleetstorm wrote:HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY, everyone!!!
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Andrew
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Just got back tonight. 96L looks descent as of now and looks to have good potential. It will defiantly be something to keep up with.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
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http://spaghettimodels.com/
With things looking as though they might be heating up, I thought I'd share this site some of the people like myself that are not pros at reading models and such. I like this because it's sort of "one stop shopping".
With things looking as though they might be heating up, I thought I'd share this site some of the people like myself that are not pros at reading models and such. I like this because it's sort of "one stop shopping".
No rain, no rainbows.
0z GFDL picks it up and takes it into the mid Texas coast -
Well it looks like 96L could be one to watch. I didn't expect to have another one this soon! It could be a long season.
0z Euro...
[quote="don"]0z Euro...quote]
Sure that wasn't the 12z run Don. Allan's site doesn't update that quick.
Looks like the latest Euro takes 96 more towards western La. - Tx/La. border.
Sure that wasn't the 12z run Don. Allan's site doesn't update that quick.
Looks like the latest Euro takes 96 more towards western La. - Tx/La. border.