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A few days ago, the chance of rain for me tomorrow (Tuesday) was 80% from the NWS. Then it was 70%. Then, the last two days they had it at 60%. Now, the forecast for tomorrow has me down to 50%.

Another SE TX day of heat and humidity. So much for any scattered showers yesterday. Summer continues onward.

In some summers, the ridge is stronger or weaker than others. So many factors come to play in terms of strength.

It's probably the persistent East Coast mid-latitude troughing. From what I've seen for the recent decade, that feature has been more present in summer when it's not supposed to be. That diverts moisture away from Texas/Eastern Mexico, leading to more potent dry spells that wouldn't have happened otherwise (especially 2011 and 2015).

Rain! Heavy too in Beaumont.
I think I can hear my roof sizzling...lol

A nice line forming around Marlin. Hope it reaches us. The spigot turns off tomorrow.

I have a sinking feeling today I will get nothing, just like my rain chances have been sinking for days.

There was a blowup along 290 headed this way, but it quickly fizzled. Will probably be the story of the day.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:10 pm I have a sinking feeling today I will get nothing, just like my rain chances have been sinking for days.

There was a blowup along 290 headed this way, but it quickly fizzled. Will probably be the story of the day.

It's redefining broken line(s) of showers. Seems to be slipping to the east just north of us.

I’m just 5-10 miles too far south to get anything. Jogging distance - after waiting for days for today to get here. Maybe another degree or two of heating will pop things a little further this way - we’ll see but not betting on it.

Nothing down here. The scorch gets here in a couple days too.

The tail end of the line licked us. 0.45 inches.

Hunkering down now for nearly 2 months of scorch.

The 10 day Euro is laughing at us.

Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Heat wave likely across much of Texas this weekend into early next week.

Building and expanding area of high pressure over the SW US and northern Mexico will bring increasing heat to much of Texas late this week into early next week. 500mb heights over the SW US pushing into the 590-600dm range suggest this is an impressive heat ridge for this time of year. SE TX will lay on the eastern edge of this ridge, but come under the influence of this ridge and its associated subsidence to limit rain chances and result in rising temperatures.

With surface high pressure over the SW Atlantic helping to maintain a SSW to SW wind and influx of low level moisture, expect dewpoints to remain in the mid to upper 70’s and this combined with rising temperatures into the mid and upper 90’s by early this weekend will likely push heat index values into the mid to upper 100’s or even low 110’s. A heat advisory will likely be needed by Friday and into the weekend once widespread heat index of 108 becomes likely. Additionally, overnight lows will struggle to fall much below 80 and these warm overnight temperatures will offer little relief and increase heat stress over time.

High temperatures late in the weekend into early next week may approach 100-103 over the region, especially west of I-45 and north of I-10 and this will likely push heat index values close to 110 if low level moisture and dewpoints do not mix out in the afternoon.

Persons across the region should be prepared for high heat index values and increasing heat stress and take to proper precautions.

500mb heights over the SW US pushing into the 590-600dm range suggest this is an impressive heat ridge for this time of year. SE TX will lay on the eastern edge of this ridge, but come under the influence of this ridge and its associated subsidence to limit rain chances and result in rising temperatures.

Yep. Let the Big Suck begin.

#SummerSucks

There’s some signs beginning to show up after about 10 days or so from now the heat might relax at least back to averages and we could get an onshore flow bringing some better chances for rain with it.

Enjoy the quiet weather while it lasts. The heart of Tropical Season lies ahead...wink

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:46 pm There’s some signs beginning to show up after about 10 days or so from now the heat might relax at least back to averages and we could get an onshore flow bringing some better chances for rain with it.

That's because the models are finally starting to pick up on the Mexican monsoon signal. That helps to relocate the ridge into the Midwest/Northeast US (where it belongs), allowing tropical moisture to flood into Texas, Mexico, and Arizona.

Ok. Had enough. Im ready for fall.

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:00 pm Ok. Had enough. Im ready for fall.

It’s just getting started lol

Long range models have been consistently showing a tropical wave heading into the western gulf around the 20th. Being that far way though take it with a grain of salt for now.