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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

Paul wrote:its a TD ..nhc is always conservative. I wouldn't doubt it gets named later tonight or tomorrow am..

NHC conservative? They've had a quick trigger finger during the entire last decade...

Anyway, this was never a TD. Convection has never really been that deep around the center. And, what center there was was never really well defined as the low level circulation itself never really tightened up and has remained rather broad/troughy...

This is about to be ripped to bejesus and back, so I would not expect any further development of this system at this time. Our first storm of the 2010 season will have to wait, and with the way things are looking we may be in for another long wait...

Ed Mahmoud wrote:WV loop.

It looks like it is getting sheared from the South, all the convection and ouutflow looks North of the surface center.

On the Western side of the loop, one can see where first the outflow to the West will get impeded, than the system will just get flat sheared, but for now, it is still producing cirrus level outflow on the Northwestern through Northeastern sides of the system.


It'll probably be solidly in the shear the day after tomorrow, so I don't think a plane will wind up being tasked tomorrow, or if it is, it'll be canx on Wednesday.


Non-development does mean this has a better chance of getting to the Western Caribbean, a climatologically more favored area.

CIMMS shallow layer steering.

I was going to say that as well, Ed Mahmoud. Needless to say that La Nina could certainly assist that thing to form much better and easier without a doubt.

sleetstorm wrote: I was going to say that as well, Ed Mahmoud. Needless to say that La Nina could certainly assist that thing to form much better and easier without a doubt.

La Nina conditions usually equate to a 'slower starting' season.

Interesting to note that shear tendency forecast are suggesting that those Upper winds may be relaxing a bit. We shall see.

srainhoutx wrote:Interesting to note that shear tendency forecast are suggesting that those Upper winds may be relaxing a bit. We shall see.

This is what we do not want correct? If these relax then that gives the disturbance a better environment to potentially gain strength and develop is that correct?

The environment for development could be improved with the relaxing of shear, should that occur rnmm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE
REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

I disagree Mr T...this was a TD yesterday and barley one now....just because the NHC didnt upgrade doesnt mean it wasnt. Their reasoning as ED has stated is its about to get decapitated fairly soon and is no immediate threat. If this was in the GOM it would be a TD...

srainhoutx wrote:The environment for development could be improved with the relaxing of shear, should that occur rnmm.

Thank you so much for the explanation, I just wanted to make sure I was understanding things right as I am learning

Windshear map right now.

Nice VIS/IR Loop...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

so that is not a TD....please I have seen TS look worse than this....its not near anything and shear is about to do it in...THAT is the only reason the NHC has not upgraded.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME
LIMITED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Agreed! If 92l comes in north of Cuba, then folks in LA, and points east would need to pay attention. Otherwise folks from the middle Texas coast, over to LA would need to.

As pressures fall in the comings days over the Gulf and the Carribean, and shear begins to ease, we will see an uptick in activity. July may end up being the month the real fun began for this hurricane season.

If this heads for the gulf, intact, I hope it stays away from the northern and eastern parts. They don't need to be pushing that oil inland any quicker.

92L has some life in it yet...nice cold tops out there now.....going to hit some nasty shear though and soon.....this my friends is a TD....I bet if recon went out there now there would be TS winds......where is QSCAT when you need it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

not for the faint at heart....to see this so early in the season...

Just an open wave now. Lots of shear and rising pressure in the vicinity of the disturbance.