Re: June 2019: Rain Chances Increase/INVEST 91L/SW Gulf
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:44 pm
Models struggle with surge of tropical moisture
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It's not strange...with precipitable waters forecast to get too as much as 2.5 inches, there is potential that any storms that do develop on Wednesday/Thursday have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time due to the potential of high rainfall rates. Global models tend to lack the resolution to detect these mesocale features.I've seen many events through the years when models showed the area getting an inch or two and someone ends up with 6+ inches of rain, it's just the nature of living in a subtropical climate. Not to mention the future organization and direction of 91l will also play a large part when it comes to how much rainfall we may get in Southeast Texas. The latest run of the Texas Tech WRF shows the potential for mid week we need to pay close attention to 91l rather it develops or not.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:07 pmThat’s kinda strange cuz from everything I’m seeing on the models so far it looks like only an inch or two.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:01 am The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...
That would be the best case scenario mainly because tropical storms or hurricanes can greatly change the weather patterns. Right now Texas is overall in a decent pattern for rain. We want that to continue.
that's not 91L, but pretty cool https://twitter.com/BillyForney3/status ... 3939058689
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AL, 91, 2019053100, , BEST, 0, 171N, 869W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019053106, , BEST, 0, 180N, 874W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019053112, , BEST, 0, 188N, 883W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019053118, , BEST, 0, 190N, 894W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, al742019 to al912019,
AL, 91, 2019060100, , BEST, 0, 194N, 906W, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060106, , BEST, 0, 197N, 917W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 929W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060118, , BEST, 0, 197N, 940W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060200, , BEST, 0, 197N, 942W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060206, , BEST, 0, 197N, 944W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060212, , BEST, 0, 196N, 945W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060218, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060306, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060312, , BEST, 0, 199N, 946W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060318, , BEST, 0, 201N, 947W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060400, , BEST, 0, 207N, 953W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060406, , BEST, 0, 210N, 959W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 91, 2019060412, , BEST, 0, 226N, 969W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1109 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will
drift NW toward Tampico Mexico today, with a diminishing chance
of intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate ESE winds will persist S of a ridge in the northern
Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on
Wednesday. Expect S to SE return flow for most of the basin
through Friday.