March - Slow Warming Trend With Rain Chance This Weekend?

[Ptarmigan]

Ed, 1979 was a pretty dry summer if I recall correctly. Was actually playing in the Junior All American golf tournament in Friendswood when the heavens opened up.

Initially it was thought the system would remain progressive, however, a blocking ridge formed to its north preventing recurvature
for an additional day, which led to extremely heavy rains between Alvin, Freeport, and Sergent in Texas. The 42 inches that
were measured at Alvin within a 24 hour period set a new 24 hour rainfall record for the United States.

Anyway, I don't believe those three month outlooks can predict Tropical Depressions, storms, or Hurricanes.

1979 Monthly Rainfall (April to September)
Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)
April: 7.79
May: 3.78
June: 1.88
July: 8.10
August: 4.57
September: 9.83
April to September 1979 Total: 35.95
1979 Total: 58.97

Hobby Airport (KHOU)
April: 5.87
May: 4.99
June: 6.75
July: 17.26
August: 5.49
September: 15.00
April to September 1979 Total: 55.36
1979 Total: 83.02

Galveston (GLS)
April: 4.91
May: 3.45
June: 0.79
July: 17.48
August: 4.47
September: 10.86
April to September 1979 Total: 41.96
1979 Total: 59.35

Alvin WSO
April: 6.66
May: 5.97
June: 5.49
July: 35.70
August: 7.56
September: 18.94
April to September 1979 Total: 80.32
1979 Total: 102.58

Angleton 2W
April: 6.12
May: 6.48
June: 7.11
July: 22.13
August: 0.66
September: 21.03
April to September 1979 Total: 63.53
1979 Total: 86.25

Freeport 2W
April: 4.56
May: 5.52
June: 6.29
July: 30.95
August: 4.17
September: 31.61
April to September 1979 Total: 83.10
1979 Total: 106.44

June 1979 was dry at KIAH and Galveston, but wet at KHOU. Strange, isn't it? Most likely due to sea breeze thunderstorms. July 1979 was wet due to Claudette. 43 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Alvin, which stands to this very day. September 1979 was wet due to Tropical Storm Elena and a tropical depression from September 17-21. Some areas saw up to 25 inches of rain from the mid September storm. The mid September 1979 storm caused widespread flooding. I wonder if anyone remembers Tropical Storm Elena and mid September 1979 storm.

1979 was a rather interesting year. Closer to the coast was wetter. Further away from the coast was drier. It is wettest from Brazoria County, Southern Harris County, and Northern Galveston County. It centers around Brazoria County. About 80 percent of Alvin WSO's 1979 rainfall total fell from April to September! July 1979 was very wet as Alvin WSO recorded 26 inches of rain from Claudette. The 43 inches happened 2 miles northwest of Alvin. Alvin and Freeport got over 100 inches of rain in 1979 and most of it fell from April to September.

What I find interesting about Claudette is that the heaviest rains were south of the circulation.

[Karen]

I remember Claudette we had 3 feet of water in our house we flooded in the middle of the night. I do remember the September storm also as we sat in our house watching the creek rise wondering if we were going to flood again. Did not flood that time.

[srainhoutx]

After a quiet week with a dry NW flow aloft, signals are increasing that significant Spring Storm will move in land over California later next week. While it is way too soon to know ‘the finer’ detail, The Global models have been rather insistent a deep trough develops to our W and a potent upper low cuts off and slowly treks NE. It will be interesting to see if the computer models have sniffed out a trough base that deep into Northern Mexico.

[Belmer]

This looks to be more of a severe weather threat than winter storm threat, correct?

[C2G]

Claudette was a weather event I'll never forget. Grew up in Sunmeadow right on the border of Alvin/Friendswood, I'm sure Karen may know where it is. At 11 years of age it was fun to play in that nasty water. Today I'd try to avoid it at all cost. Still remember how much our carpet smelled when we pulled it out, whoa. Remember getting shots at Almeda mall a few weeks later. Alicia was exciting too at 15 years of age, never forget all the trees down. Ike was a major pain in the buttocks.

[srainhoutx]

This looks to be more of a severe weather threat than winter storm threat, correct?

Yeah, Belmer. The main concern is the severe potential. The $64,000 question is just how much of a return flow off the Gulf can become established and for how long. There is going to be a big East Coast Winter Storm this week for someone in the SE/Mid Atlantic Regions of the US and we are going to be on the back side of that circulation with a dry Northerly flow until that storm can move away. The fly in the ointment is the big Greenland block ridging back into Eastern Canada. That should keep the system moving on shore in California on a southerly suppressed track and a bit slow moving. All that said and if we can over come capping issues, this may be the next best shot of rain/storms for our Region.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2013

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 05 2013 - 12Z SAT MAR 09 2013

...POSSIBLE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLC
SOMETIME DURING THE TUE-THU TIMEFRAME...

...A WET PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE WRN CONUS AS A MEAN TROF SETS
UP OVER THE REGION...


THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE
PRESENT SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS AN
UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW POSITIONED INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE SLIDES EWRD...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SPREADING
HGT FALLS THRU THE SERN U.S/LWR MID-ATLC. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DIVERGE ON EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...PARTICULARLY WITH
THE POSN OF THE UPR LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE UPR TROF WILL BRIEFLY WRAP-UP ALONG THE
COASTAL MID-ATLC BEFORE TRACKING OFFSHORE LATE WED/EARLY THU. ON
THE CONTRARY...THE 12Z UKMET WAS MUCH QUICKER IN EJECTING THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GIVEN THIS IDEA WAS NOT SUPPORTED
BY ANY OF THE GLOBAL ENS MEANS...THE UKMET WAS NOT UTILIZED BEYOND
DAY 4. BEFORE THIS...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAD GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE SFC TRACK FROM 05/1200Z THRU 06/1200Z WITH A BLEND OF
THESE THREE PIECES OF GUIDANCE UTILIZED IN THE PRODUCTS. THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH BUT
THE POTENTIAL DOES HOLD FOR A WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
MID-ATLC REGION. REGARDLESS...IT DOES APPEAR COLD WX WILL TAKE
HOLD FROM THE GRT PLAINS EWRD TO MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WITH TEMP
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 15 TO 20 F BELOW CLIMO.

THE OTHER MAJOR SYSTEM IMPACTING THE CONUS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEP UPR LOW WHICH IS FCST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW
EARLY TUE. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND...IT SHOULD SLOWLY SHEAR
OUT ACRS THE UPR INTRMTN WEST/NRN ROCKIES LATE WED INTO THU.
HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY PCPN ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...BUILDING HGTS OVER THE INTRMTN WEST EWRD TO
THE GRT PLAINS WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THIS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE D4/D5 PERIOD. LOOKING BACK TO THE
WEST COAST...AS ONE SYSTEM SHEARS OUT ACR THE INTERIOR MTN
WEST...ANOTHER TROF IS FCST TO SLIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST BEFORE
CLOSING OFF ACRS CA BY EARLY FRI. DETERMINISTIC/ENS GUIDANCE
REASONABLY SHOW THIS IDEA ALTHOUGH THE 12Z CMC IS FURTHER UP THE
CA COAST. EVENTUALLY THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD SLOWLY PROPAGATE
TOWARD THE E REACHING NRN MX/SRN AZ BY 09/1200Z. WHILE THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE EXACT POSN OF THIS SYSTEM ON D7...ENOUGH
552-DM SPAGHETTI MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS FCST EVOLUTION TO FEEL
REASONABLY COMFORTABLE WITH THE MODELS HERE. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET REASONABLY AGREED TO SUPPORT
THEIR BLEND THRU D4. THEREAFTER...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID-LATITUDE PATTERN THE 12Z UKMET SUGGESTS APPEARED MUCH TOO
QUICK. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
MEANS WERE USED IN THE HPC BLEND FOR D5/D6 GIVEN INC SPREAD ACRS
THE BOARD. BY D7...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST SUGGESTED ALL
ENS MEANS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE UPR
CYCLONE NEAR THE AZ/MX BORDER. ONE RAMIFICATION WITH THE POSN OF
THIS TROF IS THE ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN TOWARD THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL BY LATE MAR
8/EARLY MAR 9.


RUBIN-OSTER

03032013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

03032013 00Z GEFS 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA180.gif

03032013 00Z NAEFS 00znaefs500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

[Katdaddy]

This morning's AFD mentions next weekend's storm system. We will be a Lake Conroe next weekend,

MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS POINTING TO POTENT LOOKING TROF APPROACHING LATER NEXT WEEKEND SENDING A LINE OF STORMS THRU ON SUNDAY. THAT`S BEYOND THIS FCST PACKAGE, BUT APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP.

[jasons2k]

Tonight's NWS update now has a forecasted low of 30F for me. That's a bit more chilly than the 35 they were predictng just a couple of days ago! I covered what I could. I sure hope this is the last chilly blast - ready for spring to get here and STAY!

[unome]

forecast graph keeps us at 33 or above



unfortunately, Hooks hit 32 at 1 am http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html

[Katdaddy]

This morning's SPC disco:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS REGARDING THE EJECTION OF A
STRONG SPEED MAX INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/TX BY SUNDAY WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM WILL
ESPECIALLY LIMIT THE PREDICTABILITY OF ROBUST CONVECTION THIS
PERIOD.

[jasons2k]

32.1 and 32.5 here depending on the thermometer. Much better than 30

[srainhoutx]

There are not a whole of changes in the Regional forecast the week. Today looks to be the warmest of the week before a cold front sweeps through the Region later today into tonight. There does appear to be a Major Winter Storm traversing the Northern Plain/Mid West heading toward the Mid Atlantic that may bring a significant snow storm the Washington DC area Tuesday night into Wednesday. That system does appear to be very dynamic and may well drop a foot+ of snow across the Mid Atlantic Region with near blizzard conditions. Those traveling to locations along the East Coast be advised.

The next weather maker for our Region is currently out over the N Pacific and should begin to move inland into California later this week. While there remains some differences as to how quickly the upper low in the Desert SW ejects E, next weekend appears to be the time frame that our rain chance increase. There are indications that severe weather may well be possible with this system and blizzard conditions across the front range of the Colorado Rockies into the Central Plains. The storm track bodes well for those in exceptional drought conditions across the Central/Northern Plains and we may see those drought conditions improve dramatically with all the snow that has fallen the past couple of weeks from two powerful Winter Storms. Fingers crossed that we can get a slower moving storm like the GFS is indicating that would benefit West/Central Texas with some much need rainfall.

[wxman57]

No rain this week, but at least the temperatures are warming up. GFS indicates a little rain early next week (total of less than 1/4" Mon/Tue:



Yesterday was cold (69) but not too bad for a long solo ride (wife was working). Take a look at my route below. Left the house at 11:30am and got home around 4pm. Another 20 degrees warmer and it would have been a perfect day for such a ride.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Mainly a wind and temperature forecast for the next several days.

Strong surface low pressure over OK this morning is supporting a strong pressure gradient across the area with winds just above the surface already running near 40-50mph. Given good solar insolation and the onset of mixing by mid to late morning expecting some of this stronger wind energy aloft to transfer down to the surface….hence a Wind Advisory is in effect for today. Gusty winds of 20-35mph will be fairly common with a few gust to 40mph this afternoon from the south. Very warm afternoon highs today with temperatures well into the 70’s and possibly 80’s over many areas.

Another strong old front will move across the area tonight with strong NW winds on Tuesday. There is little moisture to be found with this front, so only some clouds and a sprinkle with the boundary as the area continues to sink into drought conditions yet again. Cool to cold nights and mild days under sunny skies will continue through the end of the week. Do not think overnight temperatures will reach freezing, but a few locations could see a light frost both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, but nothing colder than this past weekend.

Next potential weather maker will be a large upper level storm system that moves into the SW US late this week. Global forecast models are not in very good agreement on when this system will eject eastward into the plains with the EMCWF the faster and the GFS more closed off and slower. The trend in all the guidance has been slower and slower which may push the best rain chances from the weekend into early next week. Still too soon to know how much potential shower and thunderstorm development will be possible as the track of the cooling aloft associated with the storm system will help determine this and the degree of capping coming NE from Mexico.

Fire Weather:
Gusty winds both today and Tuesday will support elevated fire weather concerns. While winds are off the Gulf today, the air mass will be slow to moisten and this will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. More critical conditions can be expected on Tuesday behind a cold front with afternoon RH falling below 30% and strong NW winds of 15-30mph. Recent dry weather and “very dry low level air mass” is making fine fuels more readily to burn. Highest fire danger will be west of I-45 and throughout the coastal counties of Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday and this will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warnings later today.

[srainhoutx]

Not sure the models have a clue with how the weekend event unfolds. The GFS keeps a positive tilted trough dangling across Texas ~vs~ the closed core low depicted by the Euro. That said a C-130 will fly the Pacific on a Winter Storm RECON mission, so expect changes ahead.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1205 PM EST SUN 03 MARCH 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z MARCH 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. A65/ DROP 9/ 06/0000Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-
A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 05/0000Z
B. AF301 19WSC TRACK54
C. 04/1900Z
D. 17 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 05/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[South_Texas_Storms]

When will the recon data be in the models? Will tonight's 0z runs have them?

[srainhoutx]

When will the recon data be in the models? Will tonight's 0z runs have them?

Some limited data may be available for the 00Z suite. Certainly fully ingested for the 12Z suite tomorrow. It also appears additional RECON missions are possible as well...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1140 AM EST MON 04 MARCH 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MARCH 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
A. P37/ DROP 9/ 07/0000Z
3. REMARKS: TRACK P54 WILL BE FLOWN TODAY
AS DETAILED ON WSPOD 12-093.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Thanks srain. It seems like every GFS run over the past several days has shown a different scenario for our next system this weekend. Hopefully the recon data helps the models to paint a wetter picture across Texas!

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
ATHENS TO HEARNE...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUST UP TO 45 MPH.

TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133-134-144>146-157>160-174-051800-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130305T1800Z/
COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-MILAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...SHERMAN...DENISON...
BONHAM...PARIS...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...
TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...
GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...
CORSICANA...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...
FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...CAMERON...ROCKDALE
256 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE.

* LOCATION...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO HEARNE.

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL EASILY MOVE LOOSE OR LIGHT
WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST
ROADS MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
VENTURING ONTO AREA LAKES. RESIDENTS MAY WISH TO TAKE ACTION TO
SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER LIGHTWEIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONG WINDS.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Wind Advisory in effect today

Red Flag Warning in effect today.

Strong cold front currently crossing the area will bring very strong winds to the region today. Tight pressure gradient noted over central TX this morning will spill southward over the next few hours with winds rapidly increasing into the 20-35mph range behind a cold front. By mid morning mixing of stronger winds aloft toward the surface will result in wind gust to 40-45mph.

Given the very dry air moving into the region from the north combined with the strong and gusty winds, near critical fire weather conditions are expected from late morning through late afternoon. Fine fuels (grasses) continue to dry with a lack of recent rainfall and some areas especially west of I-45 and north of I-10 have yet to see significant spring green up increasing the potential for wildfire. Should a wildfire develop, strong winds will result in rapid and erratic growth and fast forward burn rates. Conditions appear most dangerous west of I-45 where the lowest RH and strongest winds will be found. Very critical fire weather conditions will be found over much of central TX into the coastal bend where several fires developed last Friday with more marginal conditions.

Dry and cold air mass will cover the region tonight with high pressure building overhead winds will weaken but not likely go calm. Lows will average in the mid to upper 30’s for most areas. High pressure slowly moves eastward allowing a return of SE winds by late Friday and a slow but steady warming/moistening trend through the weekend. NW upper level flow of late becomes increasingly more SW with time opening the door to disturbances moving NE out of MX and possibly interacting with increasing moisture to produce a few showers.