Wx Infinity Forums

Appears we are going to have a TD 2 from 93E in the near future...

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invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep022010.ren
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EP, 02, 2010061506, , BEST, 0, 141N, 954W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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EP, 02, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 144N, 954W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 02, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 953W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 02, 2010061606, , BEST, 0, 146N, 953W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161523
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM PDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA
MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 830 AM PDT...1530 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
OAXACA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
THESE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

92-E now TD-3E...may get confusing as guidance and HPC are suggesting more development in the days ahead...

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040
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0000
201006171248
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

WTPZ33 KNHC 171450
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 171537
TCUEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
840 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM A SHIP INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM BLAS...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM PDT...1540 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010061818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942010
EP, 94, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 128N, 939W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 128N, 943W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 129N, 947W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 130N, 951W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061818, , BEST, 0, 131N, 955W, 25, 1009, DB

ABPZ20 KNHC 181850
TWOEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 191214
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
530 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 97.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR
6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP
WKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF
T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
CELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...
COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.5N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.4N 98.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.3N 99.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

What is that island to the northwest of Tropical Storm Blas? Does anyone know? I am simply inquisitive.

Appears Celia is well on the way to Hurricane status...I see an eye forming...

I second that, srainhoutx.

WTPZ34 KNHC 202035
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...CELIA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 100.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

another EPAC invest...95 E...

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EP, 95, 2010061918, , BEST, 0, 80N, 850W, 15, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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EP, 95, 2010062006, , BEST, 0, 80N, 870W, 15, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010062012, , BEST, 0, 80N, 880W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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WOW!!! The EPAC is on fire right now!

rnmm wrote:WOW!!! The EPAC is on fire right now!

Yes it is, as of 2:52 p.m. this afternoon, rnmm. Now, all of us in this forum wait to see what forms in the Gulf of Mexico, Carribean Sea, and Bay of Campeche.

sleetstorm wrote:

rnmm wrote:WOW!!! The EPAC is on fire right now!

Yes it is, as of 2:52 p.m. this afternoon, rnmm. Now, all of us in this forum wait to see what forms in the Gulf of Mexico and Carribean Sea.

I have been lurking and reading...I place more trust in this forum than words can do justice, this forum was why I left as early ad I did when Ike hit...

I couldn't imagine what it would be like for the Gulf/Carribbean to be as busy as the EPAC is right now...can't even wrap my mind around that thought!