May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF
SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071740Z - 071915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF SAN ANGELO. THIS APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AND THE DRY LINE...WHERE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH INSOLATION BENEATH VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ONGOING CONVECTION MAY NOT YET BE SURFACE
BASED...BUT A ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR/
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFYING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 20-22Z. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE
HAIL INITIALLY.

..KERR.. 05/07/2012


ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     1245 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TXC043-049-059-081-083-095-103-105-137-173-235-267-307-319-327-
     335-353-371-383-399-411-413-431-435-441-443-451-461-465-
     080200-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.120507T1745Z-120508T0200Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     BREWSTER             BROWN               CALLAHAN            
     COKE                 COLEMAN             CONCHO              
     CRANE                CROCKETT            EDWARDS             
     GLASSCOCK            IRION               KIMBLE              
     MASON                MCCULLOCH           MENARD              
     MITCHELL             NOLAN               PECOS               
     REAGAN               RUNNELS             SAN SABA            
     SCHLEICHER           STERLING            SUTTON              
     TAYLOR               TERRELL             TOM GREEN           
     UPTON                VAL VERDE           
     
     
     ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT...

[TexasBreeze]

The sea breeze is starting to get active. That will be another boundary.

[srainhoutx]

The sea breeze is starting to get active. That will be another boundary.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has trended a tad further N with the upper low crossing Texas on Friday and a touch stronger as well. We'll see if this trend continues as that model now brings heavier rains/storms back to the area on Friday...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in far SETX/SW LA...

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
130 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

GMZ430-432-435-455-LAZ028-029-031>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-
TXZ215-216-072030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...
BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...MANSURA...OAKDALE...KINDER...
VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...
SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...
CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...
PATTERSON...BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...
HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...
ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY
130 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ACTIVITY WILL
BE ISOLATED ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE ACADIANA REGION.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HOURLY TOTALS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY.

[unome]

could really use some rain, sooner, rather than later... 85 is feeling hotter than 95 did last summer

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 263
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   325 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TXC019-021-027-029-031-035-053-055-091-093-099-127-137-145-171-
   187-193-209-217-259-265-271-281-287-299-309-323-325-331-333-385-
   453-463-465-491-507-080400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0263.120507T2025Z-120508T0400Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BANDERA              BASTROP             BELL                
   BEXAR                BLANCO              BOSQUE              
   BURNET               CALDWELL            COMAL               
   COMANCHE             CORYELL             DIMMIT              
   EDWARDS              FALLS               GILLESPIE           
   GUADALUPE            HAMILTON            HAYS                
   HILL                 KENDALL             KERR                
   KINNEY               LAMPASAS            LEE                 
   LLANO                MAVERICK            MCLENNAN            
   MEDINA               MILAM               MILLS               
   REAL                 TRAVIS              UVALDE              
   VAL VERDE            WILLIAMSON          ZAVALA              
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...

[srainhoutx]

From EWX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO SAN ANGELO TO WACO LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH. STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE FRONT
AS WELL AS ON THE BURRO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. CAPES OF
2K TO 4K J/KG...SWLY SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND LI-S OF -8 TO -12
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
CDT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT...SOME UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION WILL
INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WILL BEGIN AT 6 PM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SONORA STATE IN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN HIGH POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WILL DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH STEERING
FLOW TAKING THEM TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LEADING TO A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES END GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH A
FEW MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ADDITIONAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL AWAIT SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING POPS.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ171-172-072100-
BURNET-LLANO-
329 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BURNET AND LLANO COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OXFORD...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF LLANO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
LLANO...
KINGSLAND...
BUCHANAN DAM...
GAINESVILLE...
STOLZ...
LONE GROVE...
BABY HEAD...
BLUFFTON...
VALLEY SPRING...
INKS LAKE STATE PARK...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...HILL COUNTRY TO EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...263...

VALID 072231Z - 080000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
261...263...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK SHOULD LIE WITH MCS INVOF HILL COUNTRY
AND WITH TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE TOWARDS PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. SEVERE THREAT N OF THE CONCHO VALLEY IN WW 261
APPEARS TO HAVE SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISHED TO CLEAR PRIOR TO 02Z
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE PORTION OF MCS WAS CENTERED OVER LLANO
COUNTY AS OF 2215Z...WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WWD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE INTO TERRELL/CROCKETT COUNTIES. PRIMARY RISKS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH A 52 KT GUST REPORTED AT JCT DURING
THE PAST HOUR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE MOST INTENSE CORES...GRK VWP HAS SAMPLED MINIMAL SHEAR
THROUGH 6 KM AGL WITH 0-3 KM SRH ONLY AROUND 10 M2/S2...WHICH SHOULD
MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

ACROSS MOST OF WW 261...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE MCS AND
PRESENCE OF THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONT BEING SHOVED TOWARDS THE RIO
GRANDE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS N OF THE CONCHO VALLEY COULD BE CLEARED
PRIOR TO WATCH EXPIRATION.

..GRAMS.. 05/07/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

05072012 mcd0750.gif

[srainhoutx]

EWX reports quarter sized hail covering ground 4 miles W of Fredericksburg

[Ptarmigan]

If these storms could hold up, we may see them overnight.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXC171-080200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0043.120507T2351Z-120508T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILLESPIE-
651 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
GILLESPIE COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...FREDERICKSBURG...ALBERT...BLUMENTHAL...CAIN CITY...
CRABAPPLE...ECKERT...GRAPETOWN...LBJ STATE PARK...LUCKENBACH AND
ROCKY HILL.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Austin heads up. Looks like some hail reports with gusty winds with the cell approaching from the N and W.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TO S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263...

VALID 080054Z - 080200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMNANT TSTM CLUSTERS INVOF TX HILL COUNTRY HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED...WITH PULSE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
IN NERN TX. RISKS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...MCS OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY HAS APPEARED INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST HOUR WITH OUTFLOW SURGING AHEAD OF STRONGER
CORES APPROACHING THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AREA. WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB WOULD SUGGEST THAT
STRENGTHENING MLCIN MAY CURTAIL MCS REINTENSIFICATION WITHIN A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STILL...WITH RENEWED UPDRAFTS WITH SRN
EXTENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITHIN A HOT ENVIRONMENT /100 F AT 00Z
AT LRD/...A SMALL WW MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF S TX.

FARTHER NE...PULSE UPDRAFTS WITH MINIMAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /PER 00Z
FWD RAOB/ ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN TX SHOULD POSE A NEAR-TERM
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS.

..GRAMS.. 05/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[biffb816]

If these storms could hold up, we may see them overnight.

I left clothes out on the line to increase the odds.

[Ptarmigan]

That should leave a much more pronounced boundary somewhere around here tomorrow after it dies tonight...

I see some nice outflow boundaries from the storms.

[rnmm]

Can we expect storms overnight or will they fall apart before they get here?

[C2G]

Can we expect storms overnight or will they fall apart before they get here?

Wish they'd hold together, but I'm thinking they'll die out before getting here.