December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has come in a bit stronger (amplified) with the disturbance and suggests some light snow across OK (1-2 inches). Also on note is a robust short wave diving S in the Central Plains as our feature exits the TX Panhandle. There are also some hints on the GFS of a Coastal trough/low trying to develop along the Middle TX Coast. That has been seen on the Euro charts of yesterday. While the GFS suggests temps will not be cold enough here for anything of the wintry variety, the fact that it suggests a bit strong U/A disturbance does bear watching.

[wxman57]

I think it certainly means no freezing temps here Tuesday night, not with the overcast and possible light rain.

[srainhoutx]

Soooo close...oh, and wxman57, here is your winter cancel update.

[txflagwaver]

Any chance for lake affect snow??

[TexasBreeze]

There's plenty of lake effect snow up north along with some synoptic clipper snow too...

[djjordan]

I'm heading up north to Chicago in a couple of weeks ..... hoping for some cold and snow!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Cold front has passed College Station and Brenham. Should be nearing Huntsville at the moment.

[wxman57]

Nothing much changed with 12Z GFS. Cold but not freezing, just a trace of precip Tuesday night. Canadian and Euro are similar.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z GFS says we can hope, lol...

A nice reminder from HGX concerning a year ago...

CLIMATE...
IT WAS A YEAR AGO TODAY THAT HOUSTON RECEIVED IT`S EARLIEST
SNOWFALL ON RECORD. AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT HOU AND IAH IN 2009.
THIS YEAR...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH WARMER AND AS OF 2 PM...WE ARE
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD.

[helloitsb]

The 18Z GFS says we can hope, lol...

A nice reminder from HGX concerning a year ago...

CLIMATE...
IT WAS A YEAR AGO TODAY THAT HOUSTON RECEIVED IT`S EARLIEST
SNOWFALL ON RECORD. AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT HOU AND IAH IN 2009.
THIS YEAR...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH WARMER AND AS OF 2 PM...WE ARE
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD.

LOL! I'm liking the 18z

[ticka1]

The 18Z GFS says we can hope, lol...

A nice reminder from HGX concerning a year ago...

CLIMATE...
IT WAS A YEAR AGO TODAY THAT HOUSTON RECEIVED IT`S EARLIEST
SNOWFALL ON RECORD. AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT HOU AND IAH IN 2009.
THIS YEAR...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH WARMER AND AS OF 2 PM...WE ARE
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD.

LOL! I'm liking the 18z

Come on don't leave us hanging - what does the 18z GFS show?

[helloitsb]

The 18Z GFS says we can hope, lol...

A nice reminder from HGX concerning a year ago...

CLIMATE...
IT WAS A YEAR AGO TODAY THAT HOUSTON RECEIVED IT`S EARLIEST
SNOWFALL ON RECORD. AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT HOU AND IAH IN 2009.
THIS YEAR...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH WARMER AND AS OF 2 PM...WE ARE
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD.

LOL! I'm liking the 18z

Come on don't leave us hanging - what does the 18z GFS show?

The snow depth map that Srain posted, it shows traces of snow for northern SE TX and Louisiana

[srainhoutx]

Our disturbance is heading toward CA this evening. We'll see just how much it weakens.

[Baseballdude2915]

18z teased us. The 00z shows snow only as far south as southern Arkansas.

Its going to be interesting to see how all the factors come into play.

[wxman57]

Still looks like the air will be too "warm" here and moisture will be extremely limited Tuesday night. Look for a few patches of light rain with temps close to 40. I'm quite confident that this "event" is nothing to get excited about. Still can't absolutely rule out a few small (very small) sleet pellets mixed in with the light rain, but that's only if the models are all wrong and the air aloft is a little colder than they're forecasting now.

[redneckweather]

So whatever happened to the bitter cold that the Euro was showing a week or so from now? I'm guess that was a fluke also since no one is posting about it anymore?

[srainhoutx]

So whatever happened to the bitter cold that the Euro was showing a week or so from now? I'm guess that was a fluke also since no one is posting about it anymore?

Oh, it's still there...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 12 2010

GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCES
AND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRY
THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE IS
THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z
GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WEST
COAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU
THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY
00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH
VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH
CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT
STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO
D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE
DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR
WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION
AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY
AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED
UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN
RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF.

00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS WHILE DIGGING THIS SHORTWAVE AND CREATING A
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORM ELIMINATE THE PHASING
POTENTIAL OF ECMWF BUT STILL HAVE AN ANALOG CORRELATION TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED NOV 1950 EPISODE. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT STILL
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND ERN DEEPENING CYLOGENESIS IS
THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THIS WAS USED AS BASE FOR HPC MORNING
UPDATED PROGS.

ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAINS COME INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST AND NRN
CA WD WITH PCPN SPREADING EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE COMING
EWD ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL WED TO FRI WILL SPREAD A FAIRLY WIDE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ND INTO MN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THE REFORM OFF THE NEW ENG COAST
WITH SNOW POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL NEW ENG SAT.

UPSTREAM DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE
SOME NRN ROCKIES SNOW SAT THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY SUN WITH A REFORMING SFC LOW
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE BUT WINDY SNOW EVENT ACROSS IA/IL
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. ANOTHER VERY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR SURGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST AND DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE SFC
LOW TRACK BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE.

[redneckweather]

Thanks for the update srain. Well, I guess we should focus on the next cold surge then. Fun times ahead hopefully.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z GFS meteogram. Mid 40s and light rain Tuesday night. That's exciting! Not...

[srainhoutx]

Actually the NAM and GFS have come a bit wetter for our area on Tuesday. The WRF suggests a much further S track into TX and off the Middle TX Coast with the short wave. I do not think the storm track is anywhere near 'set in stone' at this point. Temps, well that's a different story. Cold rain looks like the best bet today regarding Tuesday. I will say this is going to be a fast disturbance lasting perhaps 6-8 hours.