January 2023

[jasons2k]

Wind advisory has been hoisted.

Re: SCW - go back and carefully read what they wrote. They are also talking about official records unless otherwise specified. There was a bit of an uproar/disagreement over what they posted and I was saying it was unwarranted at the time. Fast forward to now and what the guys wrote has verified very well.

If they were off the mark, believe me, I’d be one to notice.

[don]

What is the timing of the wind and tornado threat?

Things should start picking up by mid to late morning and peak around early to mid afternoon. The storm should be east of most of the area by 6 pm.

Wind advisory issued.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436-438-439-240600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0002.230124T1400Z-230125T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu,
Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque,
and Galveston
348 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Winds 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts up to 45 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

[Cpv17]

The CPC is betting on the SE ridge winning out. Has above average temps for us into the first few days of February. We’ll see how that plays out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The CPC is betting on the SE ridge winning out. Has above average temps for us into the first few days of February. We’ll see how that plays out.

Strange. CPC typically hugs model output with a dose of climo.

I see nothing from the last few runs on the globals that suggests normal, much less above normal temps outside 1-2 days between the second and third (big crashing Arctic front).

Seeing several 30s and 40s for highs late January and early February. It hits the 60s for about 36-48 hours first week of February before the big front comes.

[don]

That 18Z GFS sure looks nice LOL.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That 18Z GFS sure looks nice LOL.

Wow, that would make a run at the all time record for hours below freezing.

Also it drops 1-3 inches for everyone in the viewing area.

Wish it was 3 days out instead of 8-9 days

[Cpv17]

That 18Z GFS sure looks nice LOL.

Wow, that would make a run at the all time record for hours below freezing.

Also it drops 1-3 inches for everyone in the viewing area.

Wish it was 3 days out instead of 8-9 days

It’s in the cards. Wouldn’t surprise me if we get something major.

[Stratton20]

Definitely love that GFS run, gotta watch the trends, a winter storm definitely is possible in this kind of setup

[Cpv17]

This brings up the old saying “if there’s thunder in the winter, it’ll snow 7 days later” … hmmmm, interesting!

[sambucol]

That 18Z GFS sure looks nice LOL.

Wow, that would make a run at the all time record for hours below freezing.

Also it drops 1-3 inches for everyone in the viewing area.

Wish it was 3 days out instead of 8-9 days

It’s in the cards. Wouldn’t surprise me if we get something major.

Just checking in. Does this include SETX?

[Iceresistance]

Wow, that would make a run at the all time record for hours below freezing.

Also it drops 1-3 inches for everyone in the viewing area.

Wish it was 3 days out instead of 8-9 days

It’s in the cards. Wouldn’t surprise me if we get something major.

Just checking in. Does this include SETX?

Yes

[DoctorMu]

Very unusual to see that high of a severe threat for coastal counties, usually its up north

In the winter, southern counties get in the severe action. By March and April, the cap around HOU usually puts a well, capper on severe weather. Hit and miss for CLL.

[DoctorMu]

For your entertainment and consideration:

2 feet of snow N of Hwy 1*5.

Our Labrador is hoping this happens.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu ive seen alot of insane gfs fantasy runs, but this one takes the cake haha

[DoctorMu]

I'll believe it if the Canadian, Euro and Ensembles trend this direction. We're a ways off.

Having said that, the ingredients for a COLD February are there and pretty consistent with the expection of

- Cold Christmas

- January thaw, then cool down

- Cold February and potential wintry mischief.

We'll see. It's not just for Oklahoma anymore...

[brazoriatx]

Atleast everyone gets something not just hwy 1*5 on that run lol

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu ive seen alot of insane gfs fantasy runs, but this one takes the cake haha

It's absolutely bonkers.

[DoctorMu]

Atleast everyone gets something not just hwy 1*5 on that run lol

All the way to the coast - that's a beautiful (fantasy) sight!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ll tell y’all what.

I’ll make a deal with Mr Heat Miser to give us this. I’d bring my skis back and ski our farm if that happened. We have plenty of 20-25 degree hills on our land.

[DoctorMu]

I’ll tell y’all what.

I’ll make a deal with Mr Heat Miser to give us this. I’d bring my skis back and ski our farm if that happened. We have plenty of 20-25 degree hills on our land.

There's an area of hilly terrain that runs from east of Huntsville to Navasota, N of Brenham, then to south of Smithville, hopping over the Colorado. Between Columbus and Schulenburg.

We have Tower Point. You can see A&M from 6.5 miles away there.