Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[SusieinLP]

I guess anything is possible with the models.....But just from the satellite I am seeing, Alex is not gaining much latitude at all. Is it possible he never makes it out into the GOM??

[srainhoutx]

Getting stronger with each center pass by RECON...

000
URNT12 KNHC 261919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 26/19:08:30Z
B. 17 deg 19 min N
087 deg 28 min W
C. 925 mb 655 m
D. 56 kt
E. 182 deg 29 nm
F. 237 deg 52 kt
G. 181 deg 26 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 755 m
J. 24 C / 764 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0301A ALEX OB 09
MAX FL WIND 52 KT S QUAD 18:59:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

RECON has departed. Next mission will be once Alex enters the Gulf after a trek over the Yucatan.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 262031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER ALEX...WEATHER DETERIORATING
FAST IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[JulesC]

I'm a long-time lurker who can never remember her password to reply. Finally re-registered since this looks like it will be a long and busy tropical season ahead. This guy Alex looks to be awfully far south at this point, with lots of land to go over before hitting water again. Is he expected to make a big turn to the north? (I suppose it could be a he or a she, but I'll stick with he just for grins.) I really don't feel like dealing with another one of these puppies so soon after Ike. The least it could do is wait for my memory of that 2008 nasty Galveston cleanup operation to fade away!!! I remember it way too well. Hope Alex dies a quick death at the hands of the Yucatan!

Julie

[Paul]

well developed...can you imagine what this would have done in the GOM?...

This was a warning shot from Mother Nature....hope you guys are prepared this year...

[Paul]

I'm a long-time lurker who can never remember her password to reply. Finally re-registered since this looks like it will be a long and busy tropical season ahead. This guy Alex looks to be awfully far south at this point, with lots of land to go over before hitting water again. Is he expected to make a big turn to the north? (I suppose it could be a he or a she, but I'll stick with he just for grins.) I really don't feel like dealing with another one of these puppies so soon after Ike. The least it could do is wait for my memory of that 2008 nasty Galveston cleanup operation to fade away!!! I remember it way too well. Hope Alex dies a quick death at the hands of the Yucatan!

Julie

I agree...Ike is to fresh.... Alex shows what kind of heat content we have out there. GOM is way way above normal. More so than 2005....MDR the same...La Nina firmly established....JB just upped his forcast to 18-21 storm...not good signs....

[SusieinLP]

At this point I will be surprised to see Alex make it back out to open waters..I

[sleetstorm]

Tropical Storm Alex is only thirty miles away from making its first landfall in Belize City, Belize.

[redfish1]

the gfs has shifted north again i dont think anyone along the texas coast is out of the woods yet

[srainhoutx]

the gfs has shifted north again i dont think anyone along the texas coast is out of the woods yet

Way to early. Notice the trough to our W...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

A bit larger view...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[redfish1]

srainhoutx what do you think....may the trough will dig down deep enough to pull alex farther north than what the models are showing right now.

[Ptarmigan]

Alex is not too far from being a hurricane. Here is the NAM 84 hour radar simulation. It wants more towards the Texas/Mexico border.

[srainhoutx]

24 hours of accurate data continuously being ingested for model out puts will certainly be a positive RE: future guidance. Should be an interesting night. I suspect the night crew will be active.

[redfish1]

Call me crazy, but I'd lean more towards the European than an off hour GFS or especially NAM, or the Canadian.

Not even JB is hyping this as a Texas threat.

Edit to add- just checked archived discussions, this is over a degree South of last night's forecast point. Was supposed to go inland somewhere between 18.4 and 19.4ºN.

Alex is heading almost due West.

yeah but, wasnt the canadian the best last year in the 3-5 day range????

[Portastorm]

Call me crazy, but I'd lean more towards the European than an off hour GFS or especially NAM, or the Canadian.

Not even JB is hyping this as a Texas threat.

Edit to add- just checked archived discussions, this is over a degree South of last night's forecast point. Was supposed to go inland somewhere between 18.4 and 19.4ºN.

Alex is heading almost due West.

yeah but, wasnt the canadian the best last year in the 3-5 day range????

Even if it was, it means little this year. Every season has different parameters and the large-scale factors this season are much different than last. Until Alex shows on satellite that he's interested in moving further north (and so far there's not even a hint of that), why doubt King Euro?

[Paul]

The GFS is over doing the trof ...so is the CMC..The NAM is the NAM........if the GFDL bites and or EURO then it will get my attention....right now its MX bound.....I am sure we might get some showers off the gulf next week though....


the EURO is king!! btw- it showing our next player in the carib in about a week...

[Mr. T]

lol @ 18z GFDL

Upper Texas Coast landfall

what is with that model?

[redfish1]

what time will the other models run?