December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[snowman65]

Well, the 12Z GFS is of NO help to us winter weather lovers.....

Some of y’all forget how rare winter events are down here. In an average decade, we won’t see more than 4-5 events total and most of those are very marginal.

Hey, we don't need that kind of negativity...LOL

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro was an interesting run. Looks like lots of rain is ahead of us after Christmas with snow in west Texas. Huge trough in the southwest looks to settle in for a while sending us several impulses of rain.

[BlueJay]

Windy city out there today!

[DoctorMu]

Windy city out there today!

25-30 mph in the Brazos Valley. Our home is at the end of a street facing north, and the wind tunnel is on! Christmas decorations are hanging on!

[srainhoutx]

A zonal flow will persist into the weekend, but changes are brewing as Christmas Eve and Christmas Day approaches. The Winter Solstice occurs tomorrow afternoon, but relatively mild temperatures are on tap as little very cold air can be found across the United States or Canada.

A weak frontal boundary will slowly crawl across our Region Sunday and eventually stall along the Coast. That boundary likely will remain draped along the Coast Christmas Eve and Christmas Day bringing clouds and some streamer type light showers beneath a cap. Daytime highs should be in the 60's to around 70F for the Holiday.

Changes are brewing mid to late next week as the upper air pattern begins to transition from mostly zonal to that of an increased Western trough and likely very unsettled period that may well persist until the end of December. There are indications that cooler air associated with a deepening Western trough slowly advances into the Plains with the possibility of a Major Winter Storm impacting a large portion of the Nation as Christmas Day ends and we head toward the last weekend of the month.

[harp]

A zonal flow will persist into the weekend, but changes are brewing as Christmas Eve and Christmas Day approaches. The Winter Solstice occurs tomorrow afternoon, but relatively mild temperatures are on tap as little very cold air can be found across the United States or Canada.

A weak frontal boundary will slowly crawl across our Region Sunday and eventually stall along the Coast. That boundary likely will remain draped along the Coast Christmas Eve and Christmas Day bringing clouds and some streamer type light showers beneath a cap. Daytime highs should be in the 60's to around 70F for the Holiday.

Changes are brewing mid to late next week as the upper air pattern begins to transition from mostly zonal to that of an increased Western trough and likely very unsettled period that may well persist until the end of December. There are indications that cooler air associated with a deepening Western trough slowly advances into the Plains with the possibility of a Major Winter Storm impacting a large portion of the Nation as Christmas Day ends and we head toward the last weekend of the month.

Do you still see that SSW event taking lace as we go into January?

[srainhoutx]

Yes harp, I do. In fact the process of warming is beginning and likely could be near a record Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. That said as I have mentioned before, exactly where in the Northern Hemisphere the greatest impact will be felt coming in January into February remain to be seen.

[harp]

Yes harp, I do. In fact the process of warming is beginning and likely could be near a record Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. That said as I have mentioned before, exactly where in the Northern Hemisphere the greatest impact will be felt coming in January into February remain to be seen.

Thank you so much for your response. In your opinion, when will this begin to show up in the global models?

[srainhoutx]

In the next week or so the Global models will respond to a myriad of atmospheric processes that are coming together as December ends and January begins. In fact the very long range ensembles suggest high latitude blocking and a large trough draped from the Desert SW through the NE United States throughout most of January extending well into mid to late February. Happy Winter Solstice!

[harp]

In the next week or so the Global models will respond to a myriad of atmospheric processes that are coming together as December ends and January begins. In fact the very long range ensembles suggest high latitude blocking and a large trough draped from the Desert SW through the NE United States throughout most of January extending well into mid to late February. Happy Winter Solstice!

Again, thank you VERY much for the response. I follow this forum every winter. I am just west of New Orleans and many times, the weather that effects SE Texas also effects us here in SE Louisiana a day or so later. I look forward to more of your updates as time progresses.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

In the next week or so the Global models will respond to a myriad of atmospheric processes that are coming together as December ends and January begins. In fact the very long range ensembles suggest high latitude blocking and a large trough draped from the Desert SW through the NE United States throughout most of January extending well into mid to late February. Happy Winter Solstice!

That would spell many opportunities for fun

[Katdaddy]

The Winter Solstice arrives this afternoon as we enjoy beautiful SE TX weather for the first day of the 2018-2019 Winter.
It will not feel like Winter this weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s on Saturday. Looking ahead, Christmas will see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with some showers mainly along the coastal areas. For now, enjoy the shortest day of the year.

[BlueJay]

Glad to see the sun on this shortest day of the year.
Spring will be here soon. Stay warm.

[harp]

GFS is now starting to look interesting around Jan. 1st and beyond.....

[Cpv17]

GFS is now starting to look interesting around Jan. 1st and beyond.....

Yep! Finally a strong push of cold air. 1047mb high in southern Canada.

[cperk]

GFS is now starting to look interesting around Jan. 1st and beyond.....

Yeah the 12Z has some wintry weather near us at hour 288.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS is now starting to look interesting around Jan. 1st and beyond.....

Indeed.

/Laughs that cold weather cackle

[MontgomeryCoWx]

[harp]

Will the trend continue? We shall see. Perhaps what we have been discussing is starting to show up in the latest model runs. It could be gone next run, who knows?

[CRASHWX]

It may very disappear and reappear several times before the models lock into what going on in the upper dynamics