December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

[MontgomeryCoWx]

15th run in a row that shows extended cold for us. Keep the trend going!

[snowman65]

15th run in a row that shows extended cold for us. Keep the trend going!

Looks like we hit the "ice age" for about 7 days...23-29th

[redneckweather]

And now the GFS has is snowing here again on the 23rd and dry on Christmas....

Yes but that's on the backside as the moisture is pulling away giving some in Southeast Texas some flurries or a very quick dusting. I definitely would like a few flurries than a full blown over storm.

[snowman65]

And now the GFS has is snowing here again on the 23rd and dry on Christmas....

Yes but that's on the backside as the moisture is pulling away giving some in Southeast Texas some flurries or a very quick dusting. I definitely would like a few flurries than a full blown over storm.

That's how these things start though. Before you know it we got 4" of fluffy stuff...lol

[tireman4]

Remember folks, we are over ten days out with these models. MontgomeryCoWx has a point on the trends. Our pros tell us that trends are our friends. Look for the source region of cold. Just use caution run by run. They have and will change as time wears on.

[tireman4]

Use this for enjoyment only. Temperatures December 25, 2017 Morning

[snowman65]

more for enjoyment on Dec 23rd....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS Ensemble versus Operational

-EC stays consistent

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro Ensemble

[MontgomeryCoWx]

OHHHHHH CAN-UH-DUH

[snowman65]

that's very interesting......

[redneckweather]

I would look for those temps to be much colder if an arctic HP of that size comes roaring down the lee side of the Rockies. Just this morning, I had 28 degrees at my house with ice over everything and that was with yesterday's frontal passage. It seems like just about every cold front this season has been colder than what was forecasted a few days in advance.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I would look for those temps to be much colder if an arctic HP of that size comes roaring down the lee side of the Rockies. Just this morning, I had 28 degrees at my house with ice over everything and that was with yesterday's frontal passage. It seems like just about every cold front this season has been colder than what was forecasted a few days in advance.

I think one thing we've all learned over the years is that these type of fronts come in faster and stronger than modeled.

If I was forced to place a bet right now on:

a) Timing of frontal passage &

b) Hours below freezing (not consecutively) from the 22nd through 29th

I'd say Friday morning and ~100 -110 hours.

[redneckweather]

I would look for those temps to be much colder if an arctic HP of that size comes roaring down the lee side of the Rockies. Just this morning, I had 28 degrees at my house with ice over everything and that was with yesterday's frontal passage. It seems like just about every cold front this season has been colder than what was forecasted a few days in advance.

I think one thing we've all learned over the years is that these type of fronts come in faster and stronger than modeled.

If I was forced to place a bet right now on:

a) Timing of frontal passage &

b) Hours below freezing (not consecutively) from the 22nd through 29th

I'd say Friday morning and ~100 -110 hours.

Those kind of numbers have not been seen in a LONG time. Every year when an arctic front is forecasted, whisperings of '83 and '89 ALWAYS are mentioned but have yet to even come close to surfacing. Could this be the time when the arctic is unleashed and Galveston Bay has another thin layer of ice over the top of it? Seems highly unlikely but this is a darn good time to be a weather enthusiast for sure. I will be hanging on to every model run.


Meanwhile, the latest Euro run takes all the fun and games out of the equation. Hmmm

[TxLady]

Quick question regarding preps for icy weather: I have an outside faucet on a brick veneer wall. The whole length of the brick wall is covered by a holly hedge about 2'-3' deep by 5' tall. Does the holly hedge provide any insulation to the water spigot on that wall, during freezing/icy weather? The hedge is very thick and covered with thorns; therefore, it is almost impossible to access and cover for a "freezing pipe" scenerio. Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I would look for those temps to be much colder if an arctic HP of that size comes roaring down the lee side of the Rockies. Just this morning, I had 28 degrees at my house with ice over everything and that was with yesterday's frontal passage. It seems like just about every cold front this season has been colder than what was forecasted a few days in advance.

I think one thing we've all learned over the years is that these type of fronts come in faster and stronger than modeled.

If I was forced to place a bet right now on:

a) Timing of frontal passage &

b) Hours below freezing (not consecutively) from the 22nd through 29th

I'd say Friday morning and ~100 -110 hours.

Those kind of numbers have not been seen in a LONG time. Every year when an arctic front is forecasted, whisperings of '83 and '89 ALWAYS are mentioned but have yet to even come close to surfacing. Could this be the time when the arctic is unleashed and Galveston Bay has another thin layer of ice over the top of it? Seems highly unlikely but this is a darn good time to be a weather enthusiast for sure. I will be hanging on to every model run.


Meanwhile, the latest Euro run takes all the fun and games out of the equation. Hmmm

Meh, the Euro op looks nothing like its Ensembles... and the Euro ends the morning of the 23rd. Up until yesterday, the models were struggling bringing the front through on the 22nd/23rd or the 24th.

[TexasMetBlake]

We're just monitoring for the trends. It's way too early to get specific with numbers and duration, gang. To dismiss the 15 consecutive runs of the GFS because the operational ECMWF doesn't show anything isn't wise -- especially when the Euro Ensembles match the GEFS.

As far as 1983 and 1989 go, there's a reason single digits have only been recorded four or five times here. It's an extreme superlative and only happen once or twice per century. Two of those single digit numbers occurred consecutively in February 1899. Taking that out of the equation, single digits have only occurred once since 1930. A lot has to happen to get that kind of cold here and until we see what's being loaded in Siberia and northern Canada, it's way too premature to start throwing out those kinds of dates and numbers.

Granted, I'm excited about the possibility of winter weather here but I'm not prepared to say it on tv although I've mentioned it to a few people in the building or to friends and family that the week of Christmas could feature more wintry weather. We'll see. Keep in mind, it's only snowed 36 times since 1895 here in Houston and only 5 of those times did it snow more than once in the same season.

It's not impossible but let's remember what you're hoping for and how exceedingly rare it is. Nonetheless, here's to hoping!

[TexasMetBlake]

As this possible winter weather event unfolds, it's always a good idea to get the perspective of surrounding WFO's as to what they're calling for. Remember, everything comes from upstream. Here's a snip from this morning's AFD from FWD:

...A front will pass Sunday night into Monday but temperatures will
warm a little each day through at least next Wednesday. The models
are showing another strong front arriving late next week, possibly
bringing arctic air to North and Central Texas. However, as to be
expected, there are differences in the upper air patterns between
the models late in the week. Based on raw model output (mostly
from the GFS), talk is already being generated about a possible
wintry mix around Christmas. As a reminder, it is much too early
to predict with confidence if any winter precipitation will occur
around the holiday. However, we will closely be watching this
potential in the models over the next 7-10 days and changes are
likely to occur.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I don’t think anyone here is expecting the readings we saw in 1983. I do have a feeling we could see a 7-10 day streak of well below avg temps.

BTW, I was watching a video on La Niña winters with a easterly based QBO and low solar... long story, short, those winters tend to have widespread cold in January as well as December

[snowman65]

We already have local mets posting on facebook about the potential weather around Christmas, with caution of course, but I would think now would still be too soon for that....IMO....I have shared with very few close folks but have added much salt..