August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[davidiowx]

[srainhoutx]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals through 216 hours from Ryan Maue via Twitter.

[unome]

NASA Airborne Science https://twitter.com/NASAAirborne

Asset Tracker also shows the mission in the Gulf right now

https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#!/map
https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracke ... g=-89.7423

Hopefully they will post on social media also

https://twitter.com/NASAAirborne
https://www.facebook.com/NASAAirborne/

[djmike]

Lolks like the latest models shifted back southward. Wonder if that trend will continue. Either way, we will be on the "dirty " side whichever status it becomes by landfall. Does anyone think it will pull a cindy and have all the moisture east of the llc?

[TexasBreeze]

Kinda hard to prepare for inland flooding beforehand, especially if you have no flood insurance. That takes 30 days to go in effect once set up so it would be too late.

[srainhoutx]

Fairly good cluster among the GEFS Individual Ensemble Members.

[unome]

might be seeing Mark in a few ?

https://youtu.be/1Dnl8pyfjN8

another update, about 15 minutes long - he's on his way to TX !

http://hurricanetrack.com/
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.facebook.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.youtube.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.instagram.com/hurricanetrack/

[unome]

Kinda hard to prepare for inland flooding beforehand, especially if you have no flood insurance. That takes 30 days to go in effect once set up so it would be too late.

true that buying flood ins. is something that needs to be done further in advance, but there is still a lot that can be done to mitigate damage to your property or life and/or lend assistance to someone who may need help preparing

https://www.ready.gov/floods

[cperk]

Lolks like the latest models shifted back southward. Wonder if that trend will continue. Either way, we will be on the "dirty " side whichever status it becomes by landfall. Does anyone think it will pull a cindy and have all the moisture east of the llc?

Try not to focus on whether Harvey comes in further south,several models(gfs,navgem,euro and cmc) has it hugging the coast that's gonna be the problem.

[srainhoutx]

Appears via GOES 16 that the CoC is emerging off the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Storms are rapidly developing as Harvey enters those very warm Southern Gulf Waters.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-48-0

[davidiowx]

Appears via GOES 16 that the CoC is emerging off the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Storms are rapidly developing as Harvey enters those very warm Southern Gulf Waters.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-48-0

Mannn they are developing FAST.

[srainhoutx]

Newly Updated Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 7 Days. This is likely a conservative estimate.

[Scott747]

Here we go...

Easy to see the soon to be coc as it exits the YP. As mentioned above it hasn't taken long to tap into the energy from the gulf. Gut says that the nhc would like to start initiating advisories tonight so folks begin to take more notice. So I don't think it will take much to at least see a PTC package later this evening.

7 pm outlook will give an idea.

[sau27]

Newly Updated Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 7 Days. This is likely a conservative estimate.

When the map with the 10 inch target nearby is conservative.... you might have a problem

[srainhoutx]

All the Ensemble Individual Members from the various Global Ensembles via Allan Huffman on Twitter.

[Scott747]

Hmm. Per a post on American I was mistaken on the issuance of a PTC advisory. It would be 'remnants of Harvey' if any special advisory is needed if not reclassified a td/ts.

[davidiowx]

Looks like a pretty good consensus on Texas

[unome]

Hmm. Per a post on American I was mistaken on the issuance of a PTC advisory. It would be 'remnants of Harvey' if any special advisory is needed if not reclassified a td/ts.

"NHC will have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone but which pose a threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land within 48 hours."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/presen ... sories.pdf

not sure it's quite within 48 hrs?

[unome]

position at 4:33 EDT per below

map https://goo.gl/maps/BDSwACS6vGs

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast ... .php?large

GMZ001-230845-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
433 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The remnant low of tropical cyclone Harvey currently near the Yucatan coast near 20.5N90W will move WNW and enter the Bay of Campeche tonight then move NW across the SW Gulf through Wed as a possible tropical cyclone. The low will then continue NW across the west central and NW Gulf through Fri and is expected to strengthen.

[Scott747]

Hmm. Per a post on American I was mistaken on the issuance of a PTC advisory. It would be 'remnants of Harvey' if any special advisory is needed if not reclassified a td/ts.

"NHC will have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone but which pose a threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land within 48 hours."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/presen ... sories.pdf

not sure it's quite within 48 hrs?

Late evening (and that's stretching it) a case could be made that ne mexco and the lower Texas coast could see ts conditions as early as late Thursday evening. They have to know that to this point it still is essentially a non story. The quicker its reclassified and track/advisories are issued, the better.