http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.ph ... DWH&num=24
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.ph ... WH&num=168
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.ph ... WH&num=720
January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month
-
srainhoutx
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unome wrote:KDWH's weather instrument(s) need to be either replaced or repaired
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.ph ... DWH&num=24
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/graphob.php ... raphtype=1
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.ph ... WH&num=168
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/graphob.php ... raphtype=1
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.ph ... WH&num=720
Try this link...
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timese ... DWH&num=48
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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that's awesome, thank you so much !srainhoutx wrote:Try this link...unome wrote:KDWH's weather instrument(s) need to be either replaced or repaired
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timese ... DWH&num=48
edit to add: the 5-min data at this link has the same errors/suspect data - I think it started showing up around the time of our 9-degree wind chill... not certain about that though. I bookmarked the link though, thanks again
-
srainhoutx
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Just an nasty raw Winters Day across most of the Lone Star State except for the Coastal tier of Counties. The afternoon Update Day 8 to 14 Outlook as well as the Day 11+ Analogs suggest cold weather returns late January.
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Now that is good news and it feels great outside -cool 62 right now.
Not that im complaining about my yard drying out, but where is all this rain that was forecast? Several days last week had 50% and higher chances with no rain. Yesterday was pegged for rain and nothing except that one storm early on the west side. Today was 100% chance and not a drop.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday evening briefing from Jeff:
Heavy rainfall threat tonight-Wednesday night…powerful system to affect the area this weekend.
Longwave trough remains anchored over the SW US with numerous disturbances ejecting out of this trough and across TX. At the surface a cold front has slowly progressed to along a line from about Baytown to Pearland to Victoria this afternoon and stalled. A strong disturbance is crossing MX and will eject across SC TX tonight spreading lift across a moist air mass and the stalled frontal boundary. HRRR is very aggressive with explosive convective development overnight along the north side of the front, but think this model is likely overly excited given current radar trends. However all factors will be in place for a very wet tonight into Wednesday night with at least a couple more inches of rainfall across the region. While much of the coastal areas have experienced very little rainfall thus far, inland areas (NW of US 59) have picked up a solid 1-2 inches and soil moisture profiles are showing wetness values of 80-100% over that area…so additional rainfall will generate run-off. Additionally run-off tends to be maximized this time of year with dead vegetation from recent freezes and very low if any vegetative growth.
Rains will continue into at least early afternoon on Wednesday before a brief break and the next strong disturbances arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday. This system looks to produce heavy rains and storms SE of US 59 toward the coast. Rainfall amounts over the next 48 hours will average 1-3 inches over the area with isolated amounts of 4 inches. This rainfall on saturated grounds will lead to effective run-off and rises on area watersheds. As for severe weather…another high shear low CAPE environment will be in place tonight into early Wednesday and this could support low topped supercells along and south of the stalled frontal boundary. These types of supercells can produce weak tornadoes similar to yesterday morning. Surface front may attempt to lift NNW early Wednesday toward or even just NW of US 59 which could bring this “marginal” severe threat inland to along US 59.
Thursday afternoon and Friday will feature a brief break in the active weather…but this will rapidly end late Friday into Saturday as a powerful upper level low comes barreling across TX. Wind energy with this system will be “tremendous”, but moisture is currently lacking. Should better moisture be found between now and Saturday evening a severe threat would be possible and in fact historical analogs with mid January similar systems support a tornado outbreak across the mid south.
Of much importance will be the track of the core of the upper level storm across N TX Saturday night allowing a powerful 80kt 700mb jet to develop on the backside of this system. GFS is forecasting 50kt 925mb winds Sunday and it is looking increasingly likely that some sort of high wind end will be possible. It is interesting to note that coastal bend analog high wind events with this setup have produce some of the most intense events. As skies clear expect strong surface moment transfer and likely Wind Advisory or rare High Wind Warning event for portions of central, SC, SE TX. Way early for any kind of wind forecasts being 6 days out, but this is something that certainly bears close watch given the forecast setup. Almost certain, even at Day 6, this will be Gale Warning criteria for all the waters and could even be Storm Warning Criteria with frequent gusts of 55+mph over the Gulf waters. Not sure I have ever seen a Storm Warning for our coastal waters ever…so if the forecast pans out that might be a rare first.
While it will be wet, extreme drying will take place early Sunday as 700-850mb dry air is brought rapidly to the surface behind the departing cold front. Not sure I have seen KBDI values of 0-200 with critical fire weather threat…but this Sunday appears to be that potential with widespread powerful surface winds, very low RH, and dead fine fuels from the recent freezes. The large wind loading in the low levels is concern enough and could easily negate high soil moisture values with dead fuels once dried by a few hours of strong dry winds. May be looking at high end Red Flag criteria for a large portion of TX on Sunday which is somewhat hard to believe given we are talking about flooding right now!
Heavy rainfall threat tonight-Wednesday night…powerful system to affect the area this weekend.
Longwave trough remains anchored over the SW US with numerous disturbances ejecting out of this trough and across TX. At the surface a cold front has slowly progressed to along a line from about Baytown to Pearland to Victoria this afternoon and stalled. A strong disturbance is crossing MX and will eject across SC TX tonight spreading lift across a moist air mass and the stalled frontal boundary. HRRR is very aggressive with explosive convective development overnight along the north side of the front, but think this model is likely overly excited given current radar trends. However all factors will be in place for a very wet tonight into Wednesday night with at least a couple more inches of rainfall across the region. While much of the coastal areas have experienced very little rainfall thus far, inland areas (NW of US 59) have picked up a solid 1-2 inches and soil moisture profiles are showing wetness values of 80-100% over that area…so additional rainfall will generate run-off. Additionally run-off tends to be maximized this time of year with dead vegetation from recent freezes and very low if any vegetative growth.
Rains will continue into at least early afternoon on Wednesday before a brief break and the next strong disturbances arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday. This system looks to produce heavy rains and storms SE of US 59 toward the coast. Rainfall amounts over the next 48 hours will average 1-3 inches over the area with isolated amounts of 4 inches. This rainfall on saturated grounds will lead to effective run-off and rises on area watersheds. As for severe weather…another high shear low CAPE environment will be in place tonight into early Wednesday and this could support low topped supercells along and south of the stalled frontal boundary. These types of supercells can produce weak tornadoes similar to yesterday morning. Surface front may attempt to lift NNW early Wednesday toward or even just NW of US 59 which could bring this “marginal” severe threat inland to along US 59.
Thursday afternoon and Friday will feature a brief break in the active weather…but this will rapidly end late Friday into Saturday as a powerful upper level low comes barreling across TX. Wind energy with this system will be “tremendous”, but moisture is currently lacking. Should better moisture be found between now and Saturday evening a severe threat would be possible and in fact historical analogs with mid January similar systems support a tornado outbreak across the mid south.
Of much importance will be the track of the core of the upper level storm across N TX Saturday night allowing a powerful 80kt 700mb jet to develop on the backside of this system. GFS is forecasting 50kt 925mb winds Sunday and it is looking increasingly likely that some sort of high wind end will be possible. It is interesting to note that coastal bend analog high wind events with this setup have produce some of the most intense events. As skies clear expect strong surface moment transfer and likely Wind Advisory or rare High Wind Warning event for portions of central, SC, SE TX. Way early for any kind of wind forecasts being 6 days out, but this is something that certainly bears close watch given the forecast setup. Almost certain, even at Day 6, this will be Gale Warning criteria for all the waters and could even be Storm Warning Criteria with frequent gusts of 55+mph over the Gulf waters. Not sure I have ever seen a Storm Warning for our coastal waters ever…so if the forecast pans out that might be a rare first.
While it will be wet, extreme drying will take place early Sunday as 700-850mb dry air is brought rapidly to the surface behind the departing cold front. Not sure I have seen KBDI values of 0-200 with critical fire weather threat…but this Sunday appears to be that potential with widespread powerful surface winds, very low RH, and dead fine fuels from the recent freezes. The large wind loading in the low levels is concern enough and could easily negate high soil moisture values with dead fuels once dried by a few hours of strong dry winds. May be looking at high end Red Flag criteria for a large portion of TX on Sunday which is somewhat hard to believe given we are talking about flooding right now!
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I've had .41" overnight and today. The radar out west is lighting up with the incoming disturbance. We may get woken-up by thunder during the night.
If what Jeff is saying comes to fruition, what a wild winter we will have experienced so far.... Record warmth to sub freezing temps to tornadoes and possible flooding.. then extreme dryness with fire potential. You can literally experience all 4 seasons in a month span in Texas. Isn't it great?
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Texaspirate11
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Need some good weather as I'm working Super Bowl outside - lets keep the snow and cold wish casting to a minimum..at least until Super Bowl is OVER. 
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Texas has been the staging ground for a meteorological battle between the warm air and cold. We probably have another month of wild swings.davidiowx wrote:If what Jeff is saying comes to fruition, what a wild winter we will have experienced so far.... Record warmth to sub freezing temps to tornadoes and possible flooding.. then extreme dryness with fire potential. You can literally experience all 4 seasons in a month span in Texas. Isn't it great?
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 415 AM CST.
* At 351 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Near Northside Houston, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* Locations impacted include...
Greater Fifth Ward, Fourth Ward, Second Ward, Downtown Houston,
Midtown Houston, Memorial Park, Greater Heights, Near Northside
Houston, Greater Third Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Greater Eastwood,
southeastern Northside / Northline, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
East Little York / Homestead, Denver Harbor / Port Houston, East
Houston, Kashmere Gardens, El Dorado / Oates Prairie, Eastex /
Jensen Area and Settegast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 415 AM CST.
* At 351 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Near Northside Houston, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* Locations impacted include...
Greater Fifth Ward, Fourth Ward, Second Ward, Downtown Houston,
Midtown Houston, Memorial Park, Greater Heights, Near Northside
Houston, Greater Third Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Greater Eastwood,
southeastern Northside / Northline, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
East Little York / Homestead, Denver Harbor / Port Houston, East
Houston, Kashmere Gardens, El Dorado / Oates Prairie, Eastex /
Jensen Area and Settegast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.
-
Katdaddy
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
510 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
TXC201-181130-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-170118T1130Z/
Harris TX-
510 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY...
At 510 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over El Dorado / Oates Prairie, or over Jacinto City,
moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.
Locations impacted include...
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Cloverleaf, Greater Fifth Ward, El Dorado
/ Oates Prairie, Sheldon, Settegast, Hunterwood, Northshore, East
Houston, Pleasantville Area, Clinton Park Tri-Community, Houston
Gardens, Denver Harbor / Port Houston, Kashmere Gardens and East
Little York / Homestead.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
510 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
TXC201-181130-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-170118T1130Z/
Harris TX-
510 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY...
At 510 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over El Dorado / Oates Prairie, or over Jacinto City,
moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.
Locations impacted include...
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Cloverleaf, Greater Fifth Ward, El Dorado
/ Oates Prairie, Sheldon, Settegast, Hunterwood, Northshore, East
Houston, Pleasantville Area, Clinton Park Tri-Community, Houston
Gardens, Denver Harbor / Port Houston, Kashmere Gardens and East
Little York / Homestead.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.
-
Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Western Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 815 AM CST.
* At 519 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 4
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin
shortly.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, northwestern Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford,
Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Jacinto
City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Astrodome Area, Spring Valley, Greater Fifth Ward, Spring
Branch West, Neartown / Montrose, Second Ward and Near Northside
Houston.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
warned area.
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Western Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 815 AM CST.
* At 519 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 4
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin
shortly.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, northwestern Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford,
Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Jacinto
City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Astrodome Area, Spring Valley, Greater Fifth Ward, Spring
Branch West, Neartown / Montrose, Second Ward and Near Northside
Houston.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
warned area.
-
Katdaddy
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- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Another active weather morning across Central portions of SE TX making for a dangerous morning commute. High water is being reported with several bayous at or above flood stage in NW Houston. Remember "Turn Around Don't Drown!" this morning if you encounter high water this morning.
The Houston metro area has had several Tornado Warnings this morning. Flash Flood Warnings have just been issued for NE Wharton, N Ft Bend, and Central Harris Counties until 8:15AM. The line of strong storm with heavy rain is pushing very slowly E while cells train across the area. Another round of isolated severe storms and locally rain is expected tonight into Thursday morning as the upper level low ejects across the Plains. A break on Friday will not last long thanks to an upper trough as yet another round of thunderstorms move across the area Friday night and Saturday. The SPC has portions of SE TX in another marginal risk area for severe weather for that timeframe. Sunday looks to be a day of clearing skies with the potential for a strong wind event.
The Houston metro area has had several Tornado Warnings this morning. Flash Flood Warnings have just been issued for NE Wharton, N Ft Bend, and Central Harris Counties until 8:15AM. The line of strong storm with heavy rain is pushing very slowly E while cells train across the area. Another round of isolated severe storms and locally rain is expected tonight into Thursday morning as the upper level low ejects across the Plains. A break on Friday will not last long thanks to an upper trough as yet another round of thunderstorms move across the area Friday night and Saturday. The SPC has portions of SE TX in another marginal risk area for severe weather for that timeframe. Sunday looks to be a day of clearing skies with the potential for a strong wind event.
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Avoid the SW Freeway and 288 this morning. Westpark Toll Road as well. #Turn around don't drown
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srainhoutx
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- Contact:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
703 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...
Brays Bayou At Rice Avenue affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
For Brays Bayou at Rice Avenue, Minor flooding is forecasted.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.
Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.
Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
703 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...
Brays Bayou At Rice Avenue affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
For Brays Bayou at Rice Avenue, Minor flooding is forecasted.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.
Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.
Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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- Contact:
Need to monitor trends later today and tonight for additional training storms as yet another potent Upper Low near the Baja Peninsula taps the Pineapple Express across the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean. Looks like another shortwave is organizing over Mexico which could bring additional heavy rainfall across our already saturated soils.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
738 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
The National Weather Service in League City has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Western Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1015 AM CST.
* At 732 AM CST, runoff and drainage continued from heavy rain which
fell earlier this morning. 4 to 6 inches of rain fell between 1:30
AM and 7:30 AM. Flash flooding is already occurring.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, northwestern Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford,
Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Jacinto
City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Astrodome Area, Spring Valley, Greater Fifth Ward, Spring
Branch West, Neartown / Montrose, Second Ward and Near Northside
Houston.
Additional rainfall amounts of about one-half inch or less is
possible in the warned area.
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
738 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017
The National Weather Service in League City has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Western Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1015 AM CST.
* At 732 AM CST, runoff and drainage continued from heavy rain which
fell earlier this morning. 4 to 6 inches of rain fell between 1:30
AM and 7:30 AM. Flash flooding is already occurring.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, northwestern Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford,
Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Jacinto
City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Astrodome Area, Spring Valley, Greater Fifth Ward, Spring
Branch West, Neartown / Montrose, Second Ward and Near Northside
Houston.
Additional rainfall amounts of about one-half inch or less is
possible in the warned area.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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