Tracking the Tropics:

[srainhoutx]

SRain.

Weekend, or before that?
Just curious, I'll be traveling back from Irving on Friday.

The afternoon updated quantitative precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center suggests rain chances gradually increase tomorrow throughout the weekend. For what it's worth we have NE winds in NW Harris County now and I see Northerly winds down around Victoria, so there is a surface low to the ESE of Galveston.

[Rip76]

Thank you.

Let me ask, thoughts on that low out there under Louisiana.
As in, should I cut my trip short and head back tomorrow?

Basically if something does flare up, I don't want them home alone.

[srainhoutx]

I think it's safe to say nothing will happen rapidly overnight. Let's not forget the fickle history this wave has had. I will say that shear is decreasing and convection continues to fire along and East of the trough axis draped across the Central Gulf.

[jasons2k]

Regarding Julia - can you believe a Meteorologist wrote this? Oh wait - it's CNN - they can't report anything correctly:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/us/tropic ... index.html

Let's clarify something. Julia didn't "form" over land like some freak storm. It was designated as a TS by the NHC while it was over land (it had already been a TS for ~12 hours). This meteorologist obviously doesn't understand the difference between when something actually forms in the true meteorological sense versus when a government entity declares it so.

[Rip76]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant
development of this low while it moves westward toward the Texas
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[worrybug]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant
development of this low while it moves westward toward the Texas
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

How worried should Houstonians be about this, Rip? Should I start buying bottled water, etc?

[Texaspirate11]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant
development of this low while it moves westward toward the Texas
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

How worried should Houstonians be about this, Rip? Should I start buying bottled water, etc?

Its at 10% whats to worry? Keep an eye on it but going willy nilly wont help anything.

[Skyguy]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant
development of this low while it moves westward toward the Texas
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

How worried should Houstonians be about this, Rip? Should I start buying bottled water, etc?

Its at 10% whats to worry? Keep an eye on it but going willy nilly wont help anything.

What's to worry? As Srainhoutex just said, shear is decreasing and convection continues to fire along and East of the trough axis draped across the Central Gulf. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we had at least a TC declaration by Saturday. Worrybug, if I were you, I would review my storm plans.

[srainhoutx]

I believe I made it very clear regarding my thoughts. Nothing more than a rainy weekend along the Coastal tier of Counties. Let's not blow things out of proportion. Jeff's briefing spelled everything very clearly.

[redneckweather]

Looks pretty good as of now with a nice flare up of convection in the area per vis satellite loop. I'm not seeing much shear in the area?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[tireman4]

This was on OCM Tim Heller's Facebook page:

I still think we need to keep a close eye on this little disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.The National Hurricane Center is saying this little storm only has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. But....
Forecasting the intensity and development of tropical storms is difficult. Take Tropical Storm Julia along the East Coast. Earlier this week, NHC initially said that disturbance only had a slight chance of developing. About 12 hours later we had a tropical storm. This isn't to criticize the good folks at NHC! No. I have a great deal of respect for them and always follow their guidance. I'm simply pointing out what they emphasize to us and that is intensity forecasting is still highly uncertain.
A couple of things concern me about this little flare-up in the central Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear today isn't particularly strong in that area, less than 15 knots. Upper level winds are diverging, allowing the individual storms within the system to build vertically. There's some drier air to the north and west of the storm, but not a lot. And finally, look at the satellite loop. The disturbance is obviously more active today.
BOTTOM LINE: I'll continue to emphasize that NHC says there's a slight risk of development. But keep checking back for updates. If something develops, I don't want you to be surprised by this.

[tireman4]

By the way, just a PSA, the weather is ever changing here. If not the tropics, we are all wanting that "cool" front to visit us. As always, thanks to all the pro mets on here (Srain, Wxman57, Jeff, Blake, Andrew, Brooks, David) for the job they do in helping us and our board along. As we start to shift ( not shifted yet..LOL) to the Fall season, remember, they are here volunteering their time. Be patient. They will answer all of the questions you have.

[Rip76]

Looking at "fronts," on the link below, it appears the L is pretty close to land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

Is another low spinning up East of the L on the chart?

[tireman4]

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[jasons2k]

Looking at surface obs, it appears there is a closed circulation / low.

[Rip76]

Actually clicking on fronts puts the L south of Galveston now.

[tireman4]

From NWS Houston Tweet:

NWS Houston ‏@NWSHouston 25m25 minutes ago
Chance for development up to 20%, still disorganized will drift west and may be onshore by Friday PM in South TX. http://ow.ly/qtZt304fHhP

[stormlover]

euro thinks different

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

[Rip76]

Looks like any circulation went and hid under the convection.

[tireman4]

From Brooks' Blog...( I hope he is ok with me sharing..it is on Facebook)

Crank up the heat engine... In a lawn mower you need gas, air and a spark. In a tropical system heat engine you need, warm water, calm air and low pressure. Without one or all, the engine won't start. Those elements may be coming together in the Gulf right now. My thoughts in today's blog.