August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[Rip76]

Of course.

What time?

[David Paul]

10 pm newscast.

Thanks and Cheers!

[Rip76]

Haha awesome.

[Ptarmigan]

The Flash Flood Watch has expired for SE TX this evening as we head toward a more typical late Summer pattern with scattered afternoon showers.

33 year's ago this evening, CAT 3 Hurricane Alicia was approaching the Upper TX Coast.

How a summer cold front set off thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico. Those thunderstorms became Hurricane Alicia. That can happen easily even in quiet years like 1983.

[GBinGrimes]

If I remember correctly, in the spring of '83, Houston had a rash outbreak of tornadoes. I grew up and lived in Oak Forest. There were trees down everywhere. Pine trees had twisted tops and when I drive back thru the neighborhood I can still see a few of them alive today, having survived in a mangled fashion, growing at angles not synonomous with pines. Limbs that were ripped from trees were scattered across rooftops, streets, sidewalks and yards. I remember waking up in the midst of it during the night. The lightning was so intense and quick, it was as if someone was switching a light switch on and off in the sky. The train sound...yes it was heard.

We may not have "seasons" in Southeast Texas but there are days when a day can be a season unto itself. That's why I love weather.

[Skyguy]

If I remember correctly, in the spring of '83, Houston had a rash outbreak of tornadoes. I grew up and lived in Oak Forest. There were trees down everywhere. Pine trees had twisted tops and when I drive back thru the neighborhood I can still see a few of them alive today, having survived in a mangled fashion, growing at angles not synonomous with pines. Limbs that were ripped from trees were scattered across rooftops, streets, sidewalks and yards. I remember waking up in the midst of it during the night. The lightning was so intense and quick, it was as if someone was switching a light switch on and off in the sky. The train sound...yes it was heard.

We may not have "seasons" in Southeast Texas but there are days when a day can be a season unto itself. That's why I love weather.

Where can I find out more about that? My friend, CoreChaser1 is a science teacher lecturing his students about tornadoes. Any info you can refer me to I'll pass on to him.

[Katdaddy]

May 1983 brought a significant severe weather event to SE TX which pounded Houston and areas to the N. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coastal and move inland similar to yesterday. Rain chances decrease to 30% Saturday but ramp back up to 60% for Sunday. Models show Invest 99L turning more NW before entering the Caribbean Sea.

[David Paul]

If I remember correctly, in the spring of '83, Houston had a rash outbreak of tornadoes. I grew up and lived in Oak Forest. There were trees down everywhere. Pine trees had twisted tops and when I drive back thru the neighborhood I can still see a few of them alive today, having survived in a mangled fashion, growing at angles not synonomous with pines. Limbs that were ripped from trees were scattered across rooftops, streets, sidewalks and yards. I remember waking up in the midst of it during the night. The lightning was so intense and quick, it was as if someone was switching a light switch on and off in the sky. The train sound...yes it was heard.

We may not have "seasons" in Southeast Texas but there are days when a day can be a season unto itself. That's why I love weather.

... and December 1983 brought a hard Christmas FREEEEEZE! I ran the sprinklers and killed all the plants in the backyard, but the icicles were amazing.

[Katdaddy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
138 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

TXZ199-200-213-191930-
LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
138 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY AND NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

AT 138 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...OR NEAR GREATER GREENSPOINT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...ALDINE...SPRING...GREATER GREENSPOINT...KINGWOOD...NORTHERN
NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...
BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...PORTER HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN...HIDDEN
VALLEY...EASTEX / JENSEN AREA...LAKE HOUSTON...PORTER AND NEW CANEY.

[Ounce]

If I remember correctly, in the spring of '83, Houston had a rash outbreak of tornadoes. I grew up and lived in Oak Forest. There were trees down everywhere. Pine trees had twisted tops and when I drive back thru the neighborhood I can still see a few of them alive today, having survived in a mangled fashion, growing at angles not synonomous with pines. Limbs that were ripped from trees were scattered across rooftops, streets, sidewalks and yards. I remember waking up in the midst of it during the night. The lightning was so intense and quick, it was as if someone was switching a light switch on and off in the sky. The train sound...yes it was heard.

We may not have "seasons" in Southeast Texas but there are days when a day can be a season unto itself. That's why I love weather.

... and December 1983 brought a hard Christmas FREEEEEZE! I ran the sprinklers and killed all the plants in the backyard, but the icicles were amazing.

Was that the year that frozen pipes were cracking right and left? Or was that 1989 when it got to 9 or 10 degrees? My now ex-wife thought I wasn't doing enough to prevent that, but with metal pipes and insulation draped over the pipes, I thought we were fine. And we were.

[TexasBreeze]

I am ready for fall and coller weather, but not 83/89 type cold!!! At least with all the wetting rains and weaker ridge, I don't see upper 90's or 100's for our area next week. The se US ridge isn't the strongest for TX and lower maybe mid 90's will be enough for scattered storms each day. That same ridge could be very important for happenings on 99l for the future time.....

[Skyguy]

I am ready for fall and coller weather, but not 83/89 type cold!!! At least with all the wetting rains and weaker ridge, I don't see upper 90's or 100's for our area next week. The se US ridge isn't the strongest for TX and lower maybe mid 90's will be enough for scattered storms each day. That same ridge could be very important for happenings on 99l for the future time.....

A chew toy for your mind, TexasBreeze:

http://spacecityweather.com/rinse-repea ... -se-texas/

[Texaspirate11]

I am ready for fall and coller weather, but not 83/89 type cold!!! At least with all the wetting rains and weaker ridge, I don't see upper 90's or 100's for our area next week. The se US ridge isn't the strongest for TX and lower maybe mid 90's will be enough for scattered storms each day. That same ridge could be very important for happenings on 99l for the future time.....

A chew toy for your mind, TexasBreeze:

http://spacecityweather.com/rinse-repea ... -se-texas/

I don't know who the "SpaceCity Weather" person but in a nutshell: It's hurricane season
everyone from Brownsville up through the East Coast should always be prepared.

Other than that, it's 10 days out, models will go wonky, people will predict this or that
but the bottom line: ya just got to be prepared.

[unome]

a busy day across parts of TX

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC

https://twitter.com/iembot_fwd

https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx

https://twitter.com/iembot_sjt

http://www.weather.gov/crh/impact

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/index.php

[Katdaddy]

A quiet weather morning across SE TX except for one isolated thunderstorm in Wharton County All the action stretches from Central TX into NTX where Flash Flood Watches are in effect with several Flash Flood Warnings ongoing.

The current satellite image shows a massive storm complex over Central TX drifting slowly ESE. A complex forecast for SE TX overnight and Sunday to due to mesoscale driven convection. The combination of a stalling front across N portions of SE TX, outflow boundaries, and shortwave trough near Del Rio will be part of equation for potential convection with heavy rains.

[unome]

hearing a few rumbles of thunder from the cell in NW Harris Co, might be moving fast though

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=E_T ... verDim=100

[unome]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

.AVIATION...
Starting to see some sct shra/tsra develop with daytime heating. Away from any convection...mainly VFR conditions should persist for most of the afternoon. Do anticipate increasing precip coverage around the CLL/UTS terminals late in the day and tonight as precip currently to the north and west edge into SE Texas. Precip could be intermittently moderate to heavy at times there and may need some amendments there as trends/timing are better established. Metro airports should be on the southern periphery of much of the more sig rains during the overnight hours and am not currently anticipating many impacts there. However...may see an uptick in coverage beginning midmorning Sunday w/ heating and possible boundary interactions. 47

[unome]

moving into Montgomery County

[srainhoutx]

Saturday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Yet another heavy rainfall event for TX over the next 24-36 hours.

Factors are in place to produce an excessive rainfall event tonight into Sunday across portions of central TX possibly as far east as our western and northern counties which have just been included in a Flash Flood Watch. A stalling frontal boundary, surface trough/warm core surface low WSW of Austin and copious moisture with PWS of 2.2-2.5 inches all support the development and slow movement of a well organized MCS over SW/C TX this evening which will likely continue into much of the night and into Sunday. Significant rainfall is likely along the I-35 corridor tonight which may result in rapid flash flooding of small creek and rivers.

Main question is how far east and south this organized heavy rainfall moves into SE TX. Models generally keep the heaviest rainfall near our western border into Sunday morning and this is certainly possible given the expected slow storm motions and 500-200mb ridging attempting to build over SE TX from the ESE. However as we have seen with many of these events, the meso scale (outflow boundaries) like to take over and drive convection to the east and south many times deeper into SE TX. Additionally, the deeper moisture channel will be across a larger part of SE TX on Sunday and with heating and boundaries approaching from the N and W the chances for heavy rainfall may move deeper into the region.

High rain chances look to continue into Monday before upper level ridging briefly builds over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong mid level trough approaches the central US late next week and may drive yet another front into the state with increasing rain chances again. Also tropical wave 99L will be likely nearing the Lesser Antilles at this same time and the approaching mid/upper level trough will likely result in strong downstream ridging over the US east coast possibly keeping 99L moving on a more W or WNW course just north of the Caribbean Islands. Latest global models are showing some weak consistency in the development of 99L somewhere in and near the Bahamas toward the end of next week.

[Portastorm]

Looks like a long night ahead for us in the I-35 corridor Austin/San Antonio. We're looking at the likelihood of 6-8" of rain with as much as 15" possible in isolated spots. This on already saturated ground. Very sobering language coming out of the EWX office as well as NOAA's WPC excessive rainfall desk. Hope folks pay attention and heed all warnings.