April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for the middle TX coast and the coastal bend until 500pm.

Air mass has become increasingly unstable and radar shows development of severe thunderstorms NW of Corpus Christi ahead of leading edge of enhances lift along incoming short wave. Low levels winds remain backed to the ESE over the middle TX coast TX and Matagorda Bay region and this will support and slightly enhanced tornado risk in the watch area.

An additional weather watch may be required N/E of the current tornado watch over the next few hours depending on trends.

[srainhoutx]

04222015 mcd0417.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

VALID 221707Z - 221830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SMALL AREA NEAR AND WEST OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY
MAY HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF A TORNADO DEVELOPING.

DISCUSSION...THE SUPERCELL WEST OF THE CRP AREA IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH WEAK BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON SWRN
FLANK OF THE STORM AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL ROTATION. TRENDS ALSO
INDICATE A CONTINUED VEERING OF THE STORM MOTION. IN
ADDITION...OTHER CELLS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE E AND SE OF THIS
CELL...FURTHER INDICATING A CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE MOTION.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...THIS STORM MAY EVENTUALLY
ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE A TORNADO GIVEN LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS TO
THE E. THE CRP VWP CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY-SUPERCELLULAR...ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SRH IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. STILL...A BRIEF TORNADO
COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS CELL. EVEN IF A
TORNADO DOES NOT OCCUR...THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL BOTH
BE ENHANCED.

..JEWELL.. 04/22/2015


ATTN...WFO...CRP...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
1237 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN VICTORIA AND EASTERN
GOLIAD COUNTIES...

AT 1237 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GOLIAD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VICTORIA...GOLIAD...GUADALUPE...FANNIN...VICTORIA DETAR HOSPITAL
NORTH...COLETO CREEK PARK...OAK VILLAGE...NURSERY...DOWNTOWN
VICTORIA...VICTORIA RIVERSIDE PARK...SCHROEDER...ANDER...VICTORIA
COLLEGE...MISSION VALLEY AND SAXET LAKES.

[srainhoutx]

A robust shortwave (upper air disturbance) is advancing ENE from the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico. This shortwave should enhance areal coverage of strong to severe storms that are organizing just E of Uvalde, NW of Corpus Christi and SW of Victoria. Additional storms may develop in advance of this disturbance after about 2:00 PM S and W of SE Texas during peak heating.

[srainhoutx]

04222015 mcd0418.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221843Z - 222015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ENCOURAGED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN DEL
RIO AND SAN ANTONIO THE LAST HOUR ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION. DESPITE ABUNDANT MID-TO-HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MCD AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S F WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WILL ENCOURAGE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE TO EMERGE IS UNCERTAIN. THE STORMS WEST
OF SAN ANTONIO ARE CURRENTLY IN A MULTICELL CLUSTER...BUT A
RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRECLUDE ORGANIZED COLD
POOL DEVELOPMENT. THUS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM
THE CLUSTER OR ANY SUBSEQUENT CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MCD AREA.
REGARDLESS OF THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE VEERED TO A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PER VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CONIGLIO/GLEASON/HART.. 04/22/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

After a very active weather day across Texas, the upper air pattern remains locked in throughout the weekend into early next week. Two long tracking convective systems developed late yesterday morning. One NW of Corpus Christi and a second that developed in Uvalde that tracked across Matagorda Bay into the NW Gulf producing a wind gust S of Galveston of 87 MPH.

A very robust sprawling upper low with unseasonably cold air continues to spin across the Great Lakes and NE while a cutoff upper low spins near the Baja Peninsula will be the main drivers of our sensible weather, but with a lot of uncertainty. Additional disturbances continue to drop S along the West Coast and will rotate beneath the base of the upper low out West with additional disturbances dropping out of the Northern Rockies. Strong to severe storms look to continue throughout the weekend into early next week before the upper low out West finally moves E ushering in a very strong late season cold front around Tuesday. Expect storms will fire to our NW today with a chance to additional storms developing across West Central Texas this afternoon into the evening hours.



The Friday into the weekend looks very complicated. Strong to severe storms look to develop along and East of a dryline in West Central Texas extending NE into Kansas. A powerful disturbance drops SE from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin tapping deep tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean. Moisture from the Western Caribbean continues to surge N into the Western Gulf Coast with a noisy sub tropical jet nearby. Pooling cold air from convectie activity and outflow boundaries could set the stage for a very active weather day Friday into early Saturday. Sunday may offer a brief break, but very warm temperatures as well as a slow meandering upper low to our West typically spells potential weather worries with large damaging hail and gusty winds with an isolated tornado or two not out of the realm of possibilities late Sunday afternoon/evening into early Monday.

04232015 SPC Day 4 day4prob.gif

04232015 SPC Day day5prob.gif

04232015 00Z Euro 144 ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png

04232015 00Z GFS 144 gfs_T2ma_us_25.png

[jasons2k]

Sure is quiet on the forum....

[srainhoutx]

Sure is quiet on the forum....

Recharging the 'batteries' for active weather days beginning tomorrow into early next week...

[srainhoutx]

A small Severe Thunderstorm Watch as been issued for portions of Central Texas until 9:00 PM CDT.

Code: Select all

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 97
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
503 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TXC027-099-145-293-309-331-395-240200-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.A.0097.150423T2205Z-150424T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

BELL                  CORYELL               FALLS                
LIMESTONE             MCLENNAN              

IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

MILAM                 ROBERTSON             

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CALVERT...CAMERON...COPPERAS COVE...
FORT HOOD...FRANKLIN...GATESVILLE...GROESBECK...HEARNE...
KILLEEN...MARLIN...MEXIA...ROCKDALE...TEMPLE AND WACO.

[Paul Robison]

Now, while the chance of severe weather is higher for areas north of Houston, where NWS says a large cluster of thunderstorms is likely to form, there’s surely the possibility of storms within the city itself. How bullish is anyone (that means you too, srainhoutex) on that possibility?

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Severe weather possible Friday afternoon-Saturday morning.

Area actually lucked out for the most part yesterday…except around Matagorda Bay where an intense small bow echo swept offshore in the late afternoon. An impressive 87mph wind gust was recorded at the Gulf buoy 019 south of Freeport, TX

Tropical air mass along the TX coast has advected northward today with 70 degree dewpoints covering much of the area. Sub-tropical jet remains located across MX into TX with weak disturbances rotating around the southern flank of the upper level storm system over the SW US. The overall setup over much of TX is favorable for severe weather, but mid level capping on mid level winds blowing off the higher terrain of NE MX has effectively capped off the unstable low level air mass preventing thunderstorm formation…this was clearly seen today with a complete lack of any vertical development of the clouds over the region.

Friday/Saturday:
A stronger disturbance will move into TX Friday in combination with an approaching frontal boundary and an air mass that becomes very unstable by early afternoon. Cooling and lift with the disturbance aloft will begin to weaken the capping inversion by late morning and convection allowing models show rapid development by early afternoon along and ahead of the W TX dryline/cold front. Initial storm mode will likely be supercells with extremely large hail and isolated tornadoes across C TX…this activity will then transition in lines or clusters by late afternoon/evening as it approaches SE TX. Severe mode will gradually transition into a damaging wind and hail threat into Friday night. TX TECH WRF model which has done well of late shows two rounds of storms…a round that develops late tonight and weakens as it approaches the area Friday morning followed by another round Friday evening.

Saturday afternoon/Sunday:
Should be a fairly quiet period as the region falls between upper air systems. Very warm and humid conditions will be in place…so it will begin to feel like summer with highs near 90 on Sunday.

Monday:
A very active weather day appears in store for Monday with several parameters coming together to produce both severe weather and potentially very heavy rainfall. A fairly potent upper air disturbance is expected to swing across SC and then SE TX during the day at the same time a strong cold front for late April sweeps across the region. Impressive sub-tropical jet streak will aid in lift and the air mass appears unstable and uncapped. All signs point to a very active day with rounds of severe thunderstorms possible and flooding rainfall. Still well out to fine tune the threats and locations of best threats…but wanted to get the “heads up” prior to the weekend.

[Paul Robison]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Severe weather possible Friday afternoon-Saturday morning.

Area actually lucked out for the most part yesterday…except around Matagorda Bay where an intense small bow echo swept offshore in the late afternoon. An impressive 87mph wind gust was recorded at the Gulf buoy 019 south of Freeport, TX

Tropical air mass along the TX coast has advected northward today with 70 degree dewpoints covering much of the area. Sub-tropical jet remains located across MX into TX with weak disturbances rotating around the southern flank of the upper level storm system over the SW US. The overall setup over much of TX is favorable for severe weather, but mid level capping on mid level winds blowing off the higher terrain of NE MX has effectively capped off the unstable low level air mass preventing thunderstorm formation…this was clearly seen today with a complete lack of any vertical development of the clouds over the region.

Friday/Saturday:
A stronger disturbance will move into TX Friday in combination with an approaching frontal boundary and an air mass that becomes very unstable by early afternoon. Cooling and lift with the disturbance aloft will begin to weaken the capping inversion by late morning and convection allowing models show rapid development by early afternoon along and ahead of the W TX dryline/cold front. Initial storm mode will likely be supercells with extremely large hail and isolated tornadoes across C TX…this activity will then transition in lines or clusters by late afternoon/evening as it approaches SE TX. Severe mode will gradually transition into a damaging wind and hail threat into Friday night. TX TECH WRF model which has done well of late shows two rounds of storms…a round that develops late tonight and weakens as it approaches the area Friday morning followed by another round Friday evening.

Saturday afternoon/Sunday:
Should be a fairly quiet period as the region falls between upper air systems. Very warm and humid conditions will be in place…so it will begin to feel like summer with highs near 90 on Sunday.

Monday:
A very active weather day appears in store for Monday with several parameters coming together to produce both severe weather and potentially very heavy rainfall. A fairly potent upper air disturbance is expected to swing across SC and then SE TX during the day at the same time a strong cold front for late April sweeps across the region. Impressive sub-tropical jet streak will aid in lift and the air mass appears unstable and uncapped. All signs point to a very active day with rounds of severe thunderstorms possible and flooding rainfall. Still well out to fine tune the threats and locations of best threats…but wanted to get the “heads up” prior to the weekend.

But, as regards severe weather, Beaumont WX believes:

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO START MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE INSTABILITY ALSO
INCREASES. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. THE
HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE EAST TX LAKES THROUGH CEN LA.

of course, it would be helpful if someone would tell me where the forecaster is talking about?

BTW: Did you say you were not looking for a round of punishing storms as bad as last Friday's?

UPDATE: 12Z HRRR seems (I emphasize seems) to have backed off on the severe wx threat for Friday. Moderators better look at it just to be on the safe side, though.

[Katdaddy]

A very active weather day on the way especially for Central KS, N/NE TX, SE OK, SW AR, and extreme NW LA as those areas are under an enhance risk. The potential exist for discrete supercells over NTX leading to a tornado threat. The SPC has a 10% hatch area for Central KS and N/NE TX which includes the Dallas-Ft Worth areas. SE TX is under a slight risk area. The timing and location of severe weather will be based on a surface trigger which could be an outflow boundary from storms firing over Central TX this morning. The instability is high but there is not a well defined catalyst as the Houston-Galveston NWS state in this morning's AFD. With that said it is important to be aware of the weather today as severe storms could develop anywhere across SE TX. If you have friends, family, and co-workers in NTX make sure they are aware of a significant severe weather potential later this afternoon and evening.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
748 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TXZ195>197-241315-
BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
748 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 746 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SOMERVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CALDWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE
STORM IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK ROTATION AND COULD PRODUCE A FUNNEL
CLOUD OR POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...KYLE
FIELD...WELLBORN AND LYONS.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CALDWELL TX-BASTROP TX-
756 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR
CALDWELL AND SOUTHERN BASTROP COUNTIES...

AT 735 AM CDT...SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES WERE REPORTED ACROSS BASTROP
COUNTY. LOCATIONS INCLUDE FARM TO MARKET ROAD 535 AT AJ ROD
ROAD...WATTERSON AT POSSUM WAY AND THE 100 BLOCK OF SAND HILL ROAD.
ACROSS CALDWELL COUNTY...FLOODING AT HIGHWAY 20 AND CALLIHAN ROAD
HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED.

AT 745 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN CALDWELL AND ALL OF BASTROP COUNTY. UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CALDWELL AND BASTROP COUNTIES. FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN A
THREAT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST BASTROP COUNTY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LOCKHART...BASTROP...LULING...SMITHVILLE...MARTINDALE...CIRCLE D-KC
ESTATE...ROSANKY...FENTRESS...PAIGE...UPTON...BROWNSBORO...
MCMAHAN...TAYLORSVILLE...TILMON...ALUM CREEK...STRING PRAIRIE...
STAIRTOWN...HILLS PRAIRIE...AND HIGHWAYS 183...21 AND 71.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center has place an Enhanced Risk for Severe Storm across the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex extending ENE into Texarkana and Shreveport. A 10% Hatched area has been outline for the threat of tornadoes and 30% Hatched for large damaging hail as well as strong possibly damaging thunderstorm winds.

04242015 SPC day1otlk_20150424_1300_prt.gif

04242015 SPC day1probotlk_20150424_1300_torn_prt.gif

042420215 SPC day1probotlk_20150424_1300_hail_prt.gif

04242015 SPC day1probotlk_20150424_1300_wind_prt.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER N CNTRL MEX/SW NM CONTINUES NE TO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN KS EARLY SAT...WHILE UPSTREAM
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE INTO CA. THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN THE NM
DISTURBANCE AND YIELD A BELT OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT A SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVE...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY
SAT. IN RESPONSE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE
ACROSS WRN OK/N TX AND SRN LA WILL ADVANCE N/NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS POLEWARD NWD MOTION WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS OVER ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THIS REGION BY
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORM COMPLEXES...DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF THICK MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM NM UPR TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN SIDE OF N TX CONVECTIVE
BAND...AND UPLIFT ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE
VICINITY...SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
IN CNTRL TX...WHERE INTERSECTION OF EWD-ACCELERATING DRY LINE WILL
ASSIST IN LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC. STORMS MAY THEN FORM AND/OR
INTENSIFY A BIT LATER EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. GIVEN 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.75 INCHES/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL
COMPLEXES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVE/TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY SAT.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA LIKELY WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
PLNS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHERE SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME ASPECTS OF
THE SITUATION ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A ROUGHLY SW-NE DIAGONAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS. BUT THE
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE STRONGEST MID-UPR LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS...POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/24/2015

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center has outlined an expansive area for a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall stretching from the Rio Grande River in S Central Texas extending ENE to the Alabama/Georgia border.

04242015 Excessive Rainfall 13Z 94ewbg.gif

[srainhoutx]

Some of the short range meso models are suggesting strong to severe storms will develop later this afternoon across South and South Central Texas marching NE and may approach Metro Houston in the evening and overnight hours. A couple of these short range models are very aggressive developing a strong MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) with large hail and damaging winds. Stay weather wise this afternoon into the overnight hours folks!

[brooksgarner]

Some of the short range meso models are suggesting strong to severe storms will develop later this afternoon across South and South Central Texas marching NE and may approach Metro Houston in the evening and overnight hours. A couple of these short range models are very aggressive developing a strong MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) with large hail and damaging winds. Stay weather wise this afternoon into the overnight hours folks!

You can say that again! I was just spying the same potential.... Updating my Noon weathercast.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi will be doing a Special Balloon launch at 18Z.