May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[Rip76]

I was thinking/wondering the same exact thing.

A little "Allison?"

[srainhoutx]

The near shore Gulf waters are a little cooler than normal, but the Bay of Campeche and the Southern Gulf is certainly warm enough sea surface temperature wise to assist in tropical development. That said a hybrid low would tend to be the more likely solution, if anything where to develop closer to shore. Edit to add the 12Z Euro suggests a warm core feature that would tend to mimic a decaying tropical like feature with the potential for core nocturnal rains if it is correct.

[davidiowx]

Srain,

So if that Euro run verifies, we could be looking at a potential significant flooding situation here?

[srainhoutx]

Srain,

So if that Euro run verifies, we could be looking at a potential significant flooding situation here?

As NWS Houston/Galveston and Jeff as well as other weather service offices have stated, this is a complex and complicated set up and we will not know the exact details until events begin to develop. The main concern is the nearly stationary potential over the next 72-96 hours with additional rounds of both scattered and organized convective complexes that we just cannot predict beyond a few hours. I suspect it will require a lot of radar watching day by day and into the night time hours as we head into the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Convective temperatures have been met and scattered showers/storms are developing along a sea/bay breeze E of DT Houston and a developing to the NE across the Lake Livingston area moving SW. We will see if colliding boundaries spark additional development into the late afternoon/early evening hours.

[Rip76]

Where's the ULL?
I can't tell from my phone.

[jasons2k]

Near Shreveport. Almost stationary but drifting slowly SW.

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied 2.53 out of the gage for 24 hours. That makes 8.58 inches since 4:00PM Monday.

[JamieP]

As of 5:00, Several people have seen funnel clouds and possible tornado on ground in Manvel (via picture my husband sent) from the little cell passing through manvel & alvin. Is radar picking this up? No warnings for brazoria county are out.

[Rip76]

I can clearly see the SW movement now.

[unome]

looks like it's moving SSE at the moment to me:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html
or
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... ast_500+12


from LCH's discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STORMS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO FILL
AND GETS LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.


from HGX discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.


from WPC: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpfpfd

..LOWER MS VALLEY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD..WITH THE PROSPECTS RATHER HIGH FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS IN WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE A GENERALLY
STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE CLOSED H5 LOW INITIALLY VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX WILL
MOVE ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN LA THIS
PERIOD..WELL CUT-OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND WITH VIRTUALLY NO
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND LARGER
SCALE LIFT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY..AND WILL COMBINE WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING BUT ALSO NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS..ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO MS..SOUTHWESTERN AL
AND THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FL PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE
MODEL QPFS..AND IN PARTICULAR THE HIRES QPFS..ARE INDICATING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS..BUT DO SHOW SOME DETAIL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. ENDED UP STAYING CLOSER TO THE ARW/NAM CONEST
AND CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL QPFS..ALL OF WHICH WERE CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND HEAVIER WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

I guess it's not an exact science & open to interpretation ;)

[Cromagnum]

My wife took nearly the same picture on the way home from work. I could see two funnels from my home nearby.

[kayci]

I saw two funnel clouds when I left work, it was COOL!

[davidiowx]

Pretty impressive rainfall totals. Can't wait to see the drought maps tomorrow. I'll go ahead and say SE Texas will be white !!

[Paul Robison]

Dear Mr. Houston Weather Expert:

What can we in Houston expect on Friday stormwise? Will there be a redux of the strong/severe storms and heavy rains that pounded our area on Monday? Will the week end with a flooding ordeal just like it began?

[Ptarmigan]

Stormy night last night. Lots of thunder and heavy rain.

[ticka1]

looks like no storms tonight? what about rain tomorrow??

[Paul Robison]

looks like no storms tonight? what about rain tomorrow??

And Friday, and Saturday, and Sunday? If so, how strong/severe? (I think I asked that in a previous post. Not trying to be pushy, just curious for myself and ticka1)

[Rip76]

From the link Unome posted earlier yesterday -
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... ast_500+12

Looks like it may not move back in this direction.

[ticka1]

From the link Unome posted earlier yesterday -
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... ast_500+12

Looks like it may not move back in this direction.

another model blip? not that we didnt get enough rain - we did!!! Just curious if the ull has move further east then what the models forecasted?