March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[djmike]

3" and still counting fast in Beaumont ....flooding everywhere!

[Andrew]

Some RADAR estimated storm totals so far:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

... you don't know me very well! If its over 60 degrees, I'm pissed. I know, I know, what the hell are you doing living in Houston? It's called money and stability, and that rules over comfort.... for the time being. Plus, we are an LSU/A&M family and it works out to live in SEC country now.


Give me 40 degrees and I'm a happy camper in shorts and a fleece. Perfect running weather.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

anyone else monitoring the storms popping up to the sw and running up I-45 right now?

[Portastorm]

A little good news from your neighbor to your west ... Lake Travis has risen several feet as a result of last night/this morning's rainfall. This is the largest rise in the Highland Lake since Tropical Storm Hermine in August 2010.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Widespread excessive rainfall overnight and this morning is leading to significant rises on area rivers.



Flood Warnings are in effect for the following rivers:



San Marcos River at Lulling

Little River at Cameron and Little River

San Antonio River at Goliad

Guadalupe River at Gonzales, Victoria, and Bloomington

San Gabriel River at Georgetown

Navasota River at Groesbeck, Easterly, and Normangee

San Bernard River at East Bernard and Boling



Brazos River: Flood gate operations are in progress at Lake Granbury and Lake Limestone (Navasota River). Uncontrolled flow will be entering the river from the Little and San Gabriel Rivers. Significant rises are expected at Bryan, Hempstead, and Richmond. There is potential for flooding on the lower Brazos River basin late this week, but how high the river is going to rise is questionable at the moment.



Trinity River: A lot of water will be moving downstream from north Texas and Lake Livingston will likely need to start passing water. Rises to flood stage are possible on the lower part of the Trinity River by late this week/weekend.



San Bernard River:



At East Bernard:

Current Stage: 11.71 ft

Flood Stage: 17.0 ft

Forecast: Rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon and crest near 18.0 ft on Thursday afternoon. Minor flooding of the floodplain near the gage is likely at levels above 17.0 ft



At Boling:

Current Stage: 10.29 ft

Flood Stage: 18.0 ft

Forecast: Rise above flood stage tonight and crest near 28.0 ft on Wednesday afternoon. At levels above 22 ft moderate flooding begins near the gage with backwater flooding up Peach Creek in Wharton County and Snake Creek in Fort Bend County. At levels above 27.0 ft widespread low land flooding is expected with subdivisions threatened in Wharton County ( El Lobo) and in Fort Bend County (Tierra Grande). Significant backwater affects Peach Creek, Snake Creek, and West Bernard Creek in Wharton and Fort Bend Counties.



For the Navasota River at Normangee:

Current Stage: 9.76 ft

Flood Stage: 15.0 ft

Forecast: River will rise above flood stage early Friday and crest near 16.5 ft this weekend. This is based on expected upstream releases from Lake Limestone. Changes in flood gate operations upstream of this point will result in changes to the forecast.



For additional information please visit the West Gulf River Forecast Center or local National Weather Service Hydro pages for forecasted stages and impacts.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
208 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WEIMAR                  29.70N 96.78W
03/20/2012                   COLORADO           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0750 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SW BUNKER HILL VILLAG 29.74N 95.56W
03/20/2012                   HARRIS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED FROM MARATHON TOWER. APPEARED TO BE
            IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND SO POSSIBLE TORNADO. NO DAMAGE
            CONFIRMED.

0800 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PINEY POINT VILLAGE     29.76N 95.52W
03/20/2012                   HARRIS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN. NO DAMAGE REPORTED TO HOMES.

0800 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW BUNKER HILL VILLAG 29.74N 95.56W
03/20/2012                   HARRIS             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AND FENCES BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

0822 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW PEARLAND          29.53N 95.34W
03/20/2012                   BRAZORIA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A ROOF AND A FENCE BLOWN DOWN SOUTH
            FORK SUBDIVISION.

0832 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE HOUSTON           29.72N 95.35W
03/20/2012                   HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            TREE SNAPPED. LIMBS OFF OTHER TREES. TRUCK MOVED BY WIND.


0836 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JACINTO CITY            29.77N 95.24W
03/20/2012                   HARRIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN. DAMAGE TO CARPORTS.

0840 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE BELLAIRE           29.77N 95.41W
03/20/2012                   HARRIS             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN ON THE 4600 BLOCK OF GIBSON STREET.

1015 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 ESE BACLIFF           29.48N 94.92W
03/20/2012  M35.00 MPH       GALVESTON          TX   BUOY

            MEASURED 35 KNOTS AT EAGLE POINT

1045 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 6 ESE PORT BOLIVAR      29.33N 94.69W
03/20/2012  M56.00 MPH       GMZ355             TX   BUOY

            GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE MEASURED WIND GUST TO 49 KNOTS

[jasons2k]

Rain sure does seem to be increasing over the area again...

[Rip76]

Is that a new area of low pressure forming in the Texas Panhandle?

[jeff]

3" and still counting fast in Beaumont ....flooding everywhere!

Line has pulled up nearly stationary over western Louisiana where doppler shows widespread 4-6 inches has fallen...this is excatly where several of the models were showing this complex running out of forward momentum. While the line is nearly stalled, the organization is also weakening with cells becoming more scattered in nature instead of the solid band from earlier.

Main threat is excessive training rainfall and flooding. HPC guidance has this well covered and a very slow eastward progression over the next 2 days will give areas of SC LA hit very hard last week about bout of flooding rainfall.

***It is interesting to look at the last 90 days of rainfall over the southern US and how much it matches a La Nina pattern except for eastern TX into central Louisiana into the OH Valley. Drought to the SW US and the SE US.

[djjordan]

Seeing more rain heading into SE Texas from the gulf. Not as heavy as the last round but it'll be enough to keep us wet this morning.

[txflagwaver]

Thunder and lightning like crazy here about 20 minutes ago...now light rain

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Pesky slow moving upper level storm over NW TX still affecting the area this morning with additional rain showers. Line of severe weather and heavy rainfall stalled out overnight near the Sabine River/extreme western Louisiana as models were suggesting and produced widespread rainfall of 8-10 inches from near Orange, TX to DeRidder, LA. Extensive and widespread flooding is ongoing across Orange and Newton Counties in eastern Texas and several parishes in western Louisiana.



Upper level storm should begin to move off to the NE on Thursday taking with it the rain chances by later today. Until then disturbances rotating around the low will continue to generate scattered areas of rainfall through midday. Even had a few lightning strikes and gusty winds this morning with the activity. Weak surface and high pressure aloft will result in sunny skies and seasonal March weather for the area Thursday through the weekend.



While no additional significant rainfall is expect over the region, the damage has already been done with respect to big river rises and potential river flooding from now through the weekend. Will cover all the rivers in a separate e-mail later this morning.





Tuesday Storm Reports:

Weimar, Colorado County: law enforcement report damage from strong winds



Bunker Hill Village, Harris: Funnel cloud sighted from Marathon Tower. Possible contact with ground.



Piney Point Village, Harris: Numerous large trees down



Bunker Hill Village, Harris: possible tornado. Trees and fences blowned down along the Beltway from I-10 to Westheimer



Pearland, Brazoria: possible tornado. Shingles blown off roofs and fences blown down in the South Fork Subdivision



Houston, Harris: damaging winds snapped trees and moved a parked truck



Jacinto City, Harris: Large trees uprooted, carports destroyed…estimated winds to 65mph.



Bellaire, Harris: trees down in the 4600 block of Gibson



Heights, Harris: large tree limb down on parked car at 18th and Heights.



Channelview, Harris: trees limbs down



The Woodlands, Montgomery: a few trees down on roads



Bacliff, Galveston: 35mph wind gust recorded by Eagle Point CMAN station



Port Bolivar, Chambers: 56mph wind gust recorded 6 miles offshore at Galveston Bay entrance buoy.



Rockport, Aransas: 42mph wind gust



Port O Connor, Calhoun: 42mph wind gust recorded at TCOON site



George West, Live Oak: 80mph downburst occurred with significant wind damage occurred for 1.5 miles by 2.5 miles wide. Metal roof blown off of two hotels, power poles snapped near their base, numerous trees downed…all pointing toward the ESE.



Bob Hall Pier, Nueces: 45mph wind gust



Rainfall:

Waco: 6.71 inches (4th highest 24 hour rainfall on record at this site). Wettest 24-hour period for the month of March (previous record was 4.22 inches on March 29-30, 2007)

College Station: 2.38 (broke old record daily rainfall for March 20 of 1.65 in 2006)

Brenham: 1.84

Crockett: 2.06

Madisonville: 2.28

Somerville Dam: 2.20

Liberty: 2.64



Radar Rainfall Estimates:

[srainhoutx]

Another update from Jeff:

There have been a couple of questions this morning on lake levels and how the rains have affected lake levels.



Lake Conroe: 198.42 (-2.58)

Lake Houston: 42.40 (+.40 over spillway)

Lake Buchanan: 994.73 (-23.27)

Lake Somerville: 239.91 (1.9 ft above conservation pool). This is a flood control lake and water is currently being held.

Sam Rayburn: 161.63 (-2.77)

Toledo Bend: 170.35 (-1.65), based on rainfall in E TX/W LA this lake will rise above its conservation pool.

Lake Livingston: 131.20 (+.20). Based on upstream rainfall over N TX flood gate operations are in progress at the lake releasing 19,000 cfs

Lake Travis: 633.57 (-47.43)

Lake Texana: 43.04 (-1.84)

Lake Limestone: 363.50 (+.50) Flood Gate operations are in progress with 5 gates opened 5.5 feet releasing 26,500 cfs into the Navasota River





Statewide storage is now at 73.94% up from a low of near 59% at the end of last summer.

[srainhoutx]

Update regarding area River Runoff from Jeff:

Ongoing run-off and lake/reservoir operations upstream will result in rises on area rivers into this weekend.



San Bernard River:

The flood warning has been cancelled at East Bernard and Boling. The river is near crest now and not expected to reach the forecast levels predicted yesterday. The river will remain high and overbanks, but impacts will be limited to mainly rural areas.



Brazos River:

Significant rises are ongoing at Bryan and will begin later today and early Thursday at Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon. While no flood stage are expected to be exceeded at least at Bryan, Hempstead, and Richmond, the river will be out of banks along the channel. Some impact is possible for areas along the River in Fort Bend County at level above 40 ft. Some back water effect will affect Rabbs Bayou in Greatwood and Bullhead Slough in Sugar Land. The river is forecasted to crest between 44-45 feet at Richmond. At 46 ft flooding begins to affect the Missouri City and Valley Lodge areas with flow several feet deep against several of the levees in Fort Bend County. Given the forecast for Richmond, and past experience with high flows on the Brazos, some impact and rise to/above flood stage at Rosharon is possible.



Navasota River:

Minor to moderate flooding is forecast from Lake Limestone downstream to the confluence with the Brazos River. All 5 flood gates at Lake Limestone are in operation this morning releasing 26,500 cfs.



At Normangee

Current Stage: 11.67 ft

Flood Stage: 15.0 ft

Forecast: a rise to near 19.8 ft Friday. At levels above 17 ft there is widespread inundation of the floodplain near the gage on HWY 21 with the river more than 1 mile wide. At levels above 18 ft the river becomes more than 1.5 miles wide flooding large sections of rural land near the river.



Colorado River:

Steep rises are in progress at Columbus and Wharton with the river having crested already upstream at La Grange. While the river will be high, no flooding is forecasted.



Trinity River:

Large amounts of run-off over north Texas will be generating a southward moving flood wave down the Trinity River. These high flows should reach Lake Livingston early to mid next week requiring increased releases and possible downstream flooding at Liberty and Moss Bluff.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

well hello El Nino! Indeed, those years that transition from La Nina to El Nino in less than 12 months time have some very exciting Winters.

I like!


Going to be a slow 2 weeks on this board. Some boring, dry, 80 degree weather coming up, which will allow the yard to dry out, but thats the only positive.

[Ptarmigan]

Waiting for sunshine and onshore flow to return.

No fun-derstorms in the immediate future, but the SST loop from AOML, March 10 through March 19th, killed all the sub 20ºC shelf water, and reduced most of the sub 21º shelf water. Yesterdays rain and clouds and runoff might set us back a bit, and I wish the Mexican highlands would have gotten more rain this late Winter, for an even cooler and more humid (ie, weaker) capping inversion, but I think, if it comes, we have built it, and this Spring won't be the dreadfully dull Cap Fest 2011 was. Maybe beyond the Day 10 range, animating the Euro ensembles from the ECMWF page we'll drift back into a stormy pattern.

And way long range, next Winter may be exciting. Now, fewer long tracked Atlantic storms, but really, we don't need something destroying freshly rebuilt vacation homes in Jamaica Beach this year, and, of course, a long tracked Atlantic storm that hits South of Miami as a Cat 5 and hits new Morgan City as a Cat 3 can still happen in a warm ENSO, and think of all the added cell phone and video cameras in Florida in the last 20 years.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

I think we could see an El Nino by the end of the year. Winters that occurred in years that went from La Nina to El Nino tend to be cold and some of the coldest on record.

La Nina To El Nino Years
1972
1976
2006
2009

National Winter Temperature Ranking 1895-2011
1971-1972 33.17°F 58th La Nina
1972-1973 31.74°F 29th El Nino
1973-1974 33.85°F 79th La Nina
1974-1975 33.61°F 70th La Nina
1975-1976 35.21°F 101st La Nina
1976-1977 30.67°F 11th El Nino
1977-1978 29.68°F 7th El Nino
1978-1979 27.29°F 1st Neutral
1979-1980 33.95°F 84th Neutral

2001-2002 36.35°F 113th Neutral
2002-2003 34.20°F 89th El Nino
2003-2004 33.61°F 71st Neutral
2004-2005 35.91°F 63rd El Nino
2005-2006 36.10°F 109th La Nina
2006-2007 33.88°F 82nd El Nino
2007-2008 33.29°F 63rd La Nina
2008-2009 33.65°F 76th La Nina
2009-2010 31.12°F 15th El Nino
2010-2011 32.15°F 37th La Nina
2011-2012 36.80°F 115th La Nina

Bold denotes La Nina to El Nino year.

[jasons2k]

I measured a storm total of 1.70"

[Ptarmigan]

Waiting for sunshine and onshore flow to return.

No fun-derstorms in the immediate future, but the SST loop from AOML, March 10 through March 19th, killed all the sub 20ºC shelf water, and reduced most of the sub 21º shelf water. Yesterdays rain and clouds and runoff might set us back a bit, and I wish the Mexican highlands would have gotten more rain this late Winter, for an even cooler and more humid (ie, weaker) capping inversion, but I think, if it comes, we have built it, and this Spring won't be the dreadfully dull Cap Fest 2011 was. Maybe beyond the Day 10 range, animating the Euro ensembles from the ECMWF page we'll drift back into a stormy pattern.

And way long range, next Winter may be exciting. Now, fewer long tracked Atlantic storms, but really, we don't need something destroying freshly rebuilt vacation homes in Jamaica Beach this year, and, of course, a long tracked Atlantic storm that hits South of Miami as a Cat 5 and hits new Morgan City as a Cat 3 can still happen in a warm ENSO, and think of all the added cell phone and video cameras in Florida in the last 20 years.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

I think we could see an El Nino by the end of the year. Winters that occurred in years that went from La Nina to El Nino tend to be cold and some of the coldest on record.

La Nina To El Nino Years
1972
1976
2006
2009

Upper Texas Coast
1971-1972 58.37°F 103rd La Nina
1972-1973 51.03°F 10th El Nino
1973-1974 55.73°F 72nd La Nina
1974-1975 56.00°F 79th La Nina
1975-1976 55.63°F 69th La Nina
1976-1977 50.23°F 6th El Nino
1977-1978 48.90°F 1st El Nino
1978-1979 50.70°F 9th Neutral
1979-1980 54.00°F 38th Neutral

2001-2002 55.50°F 64th Neutral
2002-2003 53.90°F 35th El Nino
2003-2004 54.60°F 52nd Neutral
2004-2005 56.60°F 90th El Nino
2005-2006 56.20°F 82nd La Nina
2006-2007 54.17°F 43rd El Nino
2007-2008 57.47°F 99th La Nina
2008-2009 57.33°F 97th La Nina
2009-2010 49.63°F 3rd El Nino
2010-2011 54.03°F 39th La Nina
2011-2012 57.70°F 100th La Nina

Bold denotes La Nina to El Nino year.

Interesting to note for Houston, years that went from La Nina to El Nino produced some of the coldest winters on record. 1972-1973 had three snowfall events, while 2009-2010 had two snowfall events, including the earliest on record. The late 1970s was cold.

[TexasBreeze]

If it was tc season, you could swear this large upper low was a broad inland tc with a feeder band from the gulf...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmis ... e_loop.php