ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
Niño 3 2.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is the same. Region 3 and 3.4 have cooled. Region 4 has warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 4273
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -20.48
Average for last 90 days -12.65
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -28.12

SOI has decreased despite some cooling.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 2.08

ESPI decreased.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
Niño 3 2.3ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 is the same, while Region 4 has warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -20.11
Average for last 90 days -11.84
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -4.08

SOI has increased.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.85

ESPI decreased.

El Nino is starting to wane.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.6ºC
Niño 3 2.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed, while Region 3 cooled. Region 4 remains the same.
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Ptarmigan
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Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -12.91
Average for last 90 days -11.25
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -5.67

SOI has dropped.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.48

ESPI decreased.

El Nino is starting to wane.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
Niño 3 2.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled, except for Region 4.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -9.80
Average for last 90 days -12.11
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -28.96

SOI has decreased.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.19

ESPI decreased.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 4273
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Could El Nino stick around or go Neutral or La Nina?

Image

Image
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 4273
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 2.4ºC
Niño 3 1.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled. El Nino is slowly fading.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -12.24
Average for last 90 days -15.10
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -50.34

SOI tanked due to an active South Pacific Tropical Cyclone basin.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.18

ESPI decreased.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 2.1ºC
Niño 3 1.8ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed, while Region 3 and 3.4 have cooled. Region 4 is the same.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -18.55
Average for last 90 days -16.85
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -49.18

SOI remains very negative. It could be one reason why El Nino is slowly dying.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.26

ESPI decreased.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 1.9ºC
Niño 3 1.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed. Region 3 and 4 are still the same.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -22.94
Average for last 90 days -16.39
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 0.19

SOI is in positive territory. The recent strong negatives have been one reason why El Nino is slowly dying than usual.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.49

ESPI decreased.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 1.8ºC
Niño 3 1.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 have warmed up. Region 3 and 3.4 have cooled.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -21.57
Average for last 90 days -15.09
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 6.94

SOI is in positive territory. The recent strong negatives have been one reason why El Nino is slowly dying than usual.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is 1.52

ESPI increased.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 4273
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February PDO went up to 1.75. This complicates things.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 4273
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 1.7ºC
Niño 3 1.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled, except for Region 3.
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