January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[ticka1]

The 12Z Euro is going to start some chatter, I suspect. More in a bit.

You big tease. I know how to contact you, Steve. Don't make me....LOL!

Candy Cane - tell SRainhoutex thats just plain mean! CONTACT HIM! Lol

[TexasMetBlake]

This run is a LOT colder than 00z. You can clearly see the -20 isotherm all over CO, WY and MT. Since those elevations out west are already at or above 850 mb, that translates to surface temps of -30F!

[snowman65]

This run is a LOT colder than 00z. You can clearly see the -20 isotherm all over CO, WY and MT.

Huh???...I don't see anything...what are you looking at?..Don't just tease us...put a link or something

[TexasMetBlake]

This run is a LOT colder than 00z. You can clearly see the -20 isotherm all over CO, WY and MT.

Huh???...I don't see anything...what are you looking at?..Don't just tease us...put a link or something

On the bottom right box (hr. 144), you can see the extent of the -20C isotherms in CO, WY, and MT. Since those elevations are already at or above 850 anyway, that translates to surface temps nearing -30F. That is WAY colder than 00z.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[srainhoutx]

Alright, from waht I see we have a 1060mb Arctic high settling into MT and sliding further S near the 216 time frame. Also of note is the large amount of very cold air building in Canada.

[TexasMetBlake]

Anybody else notice the -20C isotherm pushing into Oklahoma and Texas panhandles? Has that ever happened before? I've never seen it. LOL

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[srainhoutx]

Just received a text...1071mb NW AK...

[Andrew]

Just received a text...1071mb NW AK...

[TexasMetBlake]

Houston, we could have a SERIOUS problem.

[ticka1]

Just received a text...1071mb NW AK...

Which means the cold air is now in Alaska and heading this way?

[TexasMetBlake]

But keep in mind that pressure is WAY up in AK. It's not that kind of pressure that is pushing into Montana. So let's keep our heads about this....and I'm referring mainly to me.

[brazoria121]

could someone let me know by friday the latest if this cold is comming.. i have cattle that i have to get put up if its going to get as cold as yall are saying it might

[TexasMetBlake]

could someone let me know by friday the latest if this cold is comming.. i have cattle that i have to get put up if its going to get as cold as yall are saying it might

The problem is we know it's going to get cold, we just don't know the severity of it. It could range from low teens and single digits to mid 20s. It's all about the actual strength of the high, location, upper-level flow, clouds and wind. Honestly, we're not going to be able to gauge temps until a day or two before the event.

[wxman57]

Just received a text...1071mb NW AK...

That must be a model forecast for next week. Current pressures in NW AK are below 990mb with temps well above zero (9F-16F).

[srainhoutx]

Just received a text...1071mb NW AK...

That must be a model forecast for next week. Current pressures in NW AK are below 990mb with temps well above zero (9F-16F).

It is. Between 216-240 Hours.

[Andrew]

Just received a text...1071mb NW AK...

That must be a model forecast for next week. Current pressures in NW AK are below 990mb with temps well above zero (9F-16F).

I think srain was posting the euro pressure.

[TexasMetBlake]

So we have three global models that have, in some fashion, showed a big arctic outbreak for about a week now. The pressures have consistently hovered around 1060-1070 mb range with a certain degree of variance depending on models and times run. All in all, I'd say we better get to Lowe's why there are supplies on the shelves.

[biggerbyte]

The BIG 2011 chill. Yes, like with a potential hurricane, it is a good idea to start making plans now for a very cold outbreak. If you wait until we can get verification at the end of this week, you could seriously regret it. The local news stations are talking about the potential, so prudent folks will not wait. If nothing happens after all... You were the smart one. Nothing worse than sitting around with no supplies over an assumption.

[BiggieSmalls]

Based on what we know, what is more likely; the cold air slipping more east, or the cold air getting here as predicted but not being all that cold after all? Just asking since so many of these advertised events don't pan out....

[srainhoutx]

Bastardi: January Could be Coldest for U.S. since 1980s

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... oldest.asp