2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[don]

0Z ICON Tropical Storm into Aransas Bay.

icon_mslp_pcpn_scus_45.png

[Cpv17]

0Z ICON Tropical Storm into Aransas Bay.

icon_mslp_pcpn_scus_45.png

That would be a good track for widespread rains in our area. Hopefully it slows down too.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 looks like the ridge will keep it moving once its inland, probably a good 24 hours of heavy tropical rain before it continues west

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 looks like the ridge will keep it moving once its inland, probably a good 24 hours of heavy tropical rain before it continues west

Yeah. That’s what I’m fearing along with dry air limiting its moisture.

[weatherguy425]

Cpv17 looks like the ridge will keep it moving once its inland, probably a good 24 hours of heavy tropical rain before it continues west

This system may end up being fairly compact, and with ridging to the north, even that track wouldn’t *guarantee solid rain area-wide. (Think Claudette ‘03).

[Rip76]

The last two posts are my fears exactly.

[weatherguy425]

Onshore flow + higher PWATS + less ridging locally all are still better than the current, setup either way.

[Stratton20]

CMC significantly further north compared to its previous N Mexico runs, now in corpus christ as a broad but closed low/depression or maybe even a TS

[don]

Canadian into Corpus big shift north and more inline with the other globals now.

GFS brings it into the middle Texas coast around San Antonio Bay as an open wave.Though it is stronger with the vorticity and tries to close the low off.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_23.png

Screenshot 2023-08-16 at 23-16-26 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

[don]

Cpv17 looks like the ridge will keep it moving once its inland, probably a good 24 hours of heavy tropical rain before it continues west

This system may end up being fairly compact, and with ridging to the north, even that track wouldn’t *guarantee solid rain area-wide. (Think Claudette ‘03).

Even though its selfish, to be on the safe side I would want a Matagorda Bay hit to be the furthest south a landfall occurs. But beggars cant be choosers LOL.

[Stratton20]

The euro run is going to be mighty interesting

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 looks like the ridge will keep it moving once its inland, probably a good 24 hours of heavy tropical rain before it continues west

This system may end up being fairly compact, and with ridging to the north, even that track wouldn’t *guarantee solid rain area-wide. (Think Claudette ‘03).

Even though its selfish, to be on the safe side I would want a Matagorda Bay hit to be the furthest south a landfall occurs. But beggars cant be choosers LOL.

I want Port O’Connor and then a track towards Edna or Victoria.

[Stratton20]

Euro 00z Has a weak tropical low making landfall along the upper texas coast fwiw

[brazoriatx]

Won't have a solid grasp of things till probably sat or sun

[Cpv17]

6z GFS has the wave going towards the Baffin Bay/Corpus Christi area but it’s weak and has very little precip with it and we get crickets from it. 0z Euro also cut back on totals by a good bit.

[Cpv17]

Won't have a solid grasp of things till probably sat or sun

Bingo!

[tireman4]

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza 08 17 23

[tireman4]

The northern part of the Tropical wave that enter the GOM later this week..

[brazoriatx]

Looks pretty healthy for a wave..convection has increased