Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 1:31 pm
57 on storm2k says this is going to Mexico. Won’t be a threat for us.
Grace has no defined center. Hispaniola is to come. Models are crashing something weak southward, but after last year's model failures the NHS will likely a better handle than the ebb and flow of models wrestling with something that barely has initial conditions.
One thing is certain. Grace will see Gulf time.
Confidence is low in predicting where and how strong. Stay tuned.
Let’s hope the ridge builds across the N GOM next week and pushes Grace into N Mexico. It will be interesting to see how things change and develop this week.
What has me concerned that Grace wont continue west into Mexico, is the large trough over the northwest the models are showing.That could cause a weakness on the western edge of the ridge in the gulf.
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 1:31 pm
57 on storm2k says this is going to Mexico. Won’t be a threat for us.
That is not set in stone a few days ago he said the north central GOM the conditions changed and may do so again.
I agree completely but almost everyone acts and treats him like he’s never wrong.
I don’t think that’s the case at all. He’s right a lot but also wrong often, but what met isn’t? He has a lot of tools the general public don’t get to see and his forecasts are made with merit and analysis of several things. Unlike many which are just guesses and/or wish casting.
He has his opinions too, mostly about winter lol. In any event, it’s nice to have interaction with all of the pro Mets on this board, as well as S2k!
Lowest electrical usage and water use I can remember for July thanks to more cloud cover and "cooler" temperatures. There's a storm nearby...Hoping for some afternoon rain. I rain the sprinklers a little over halfway last night. Would like to shut down sprinklers soon to prepare for brown patch season (mid-October) and then weed season.
don wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 2:04 pm
What has me concerned that Grace wont continue west into Mexico, is the large trough over the northwest the models are showing.That could cause a weakness on the western edge of the ridge in the gulf.
It's all about timing. The GoM ridge weakens by Friday. Will Grace be pulled far enough south then?
Welp - I watered last night so BOOM Rain! Will take it - it's August.
Heading SE towards the Houston area.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Aug 15, 2021 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yall dont even waste your time with the Euro, The Euro is pretty much trash now when it comes to the tropics, it needs a new upgrade because holy cow it probably couldnt even pick up on a Cat 5 hurricane if their was one in the gulf right now
We'll see Stratton. We need time for models to sync if at all with NHC. We really don't have much data from this tropical season. I'll assume the NHC group will have the best handle on Atlantic basin TCs until proven otherwise, as they did the very busy 2020 season.
DoctorMu Yup, I have a feeling that grace is going to organize when it gets into the gulf, then thats where we should see a center form “potentially”, but the census is definitely somewhere between mexico and Louisiana, if this happens then the models should get better data, im just super skeptical of the Euro in terms of strength
18z HWRF has Grace strengthening to a Cat 5 just off the Texas coast about 5 days from now. Jesus the HWRF is a pretty good hurricane mode but I hope to god its wrong here because that not that far out in terms of a forecast
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 3:08 pm
18z HWRF has Grace strengthening to a Cat 5 just off the Texas coast about 5 days from now. Jesus the HWRF is a pretty good hurricane mode but I hope to god its wrong here because that not that far out in terms of a forecast
Lol
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 3:08 pm
18z HWRF has Grace strengthening to a Cat 5 just off the Texas coast about 5 days from now. Jesus the HWRF is a pretty good hurricane mode but I hope to god its wrong here because that not that far out in terms of a forecast
Thankfully that model has been a complete joke lately.
