Wx Infinity Forums

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:47 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:43 pm Blake just tweeted this... a steak right threw my ❤ lol I lived in kingwood in 2004 and didn't get jack lol

So I hate to be whatever, but...

Those of you in the coastal counties probably won’t get any snow while those of us up north will.

We remember 2004 when you guys got buried at the coast and we didn’t even get a flurry up north.

IT’S OUR TURN!! (meant in good fun)

Goes hand in hand with HGX’s discussion an hour or so ago. Still plenty of time for things to change in my opinion.

If history serves me right, the times we actually got some good snowfall that accumulated, it was not forecast s well until the last second or it was already happening. The times in which we have had winter storm watches/warnings, it seems like it never really came together down here. Time will tell!

Can you talk more about the consistency with the latest HGX discussion?

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:34 pm Problem with NAM is if you’re looking at snow accumulations, which this run shows accumulations all the way to Galveston island, it is fairly poor at differentiating snow from sleet or snow melting to rain at the surface.

If you look at the surface reflectivity, it keeps the snow line north of Harris county. However, the cloud tops are cold (yellows all over our area) so it is certainly possible the column cools down as the event unfolds and we get one heck of a surprise. Just my opinion.

Yep Ive been noticing the same thing, with the cold air aloft i would be surprised if there weren't widespread reports through out the day tomorrow of sleet mixing with rain as far south as the 59 corridor, especially where heavier precipitation rates are falling. Its not often that we have PWs this high when the air is this cold.
A low chance for now but IF the cold air advection over performs tomorrow,there could even be brief moderate-heavy snow/sleet further south along the I-10/59 corridor, IF the heavy rainfall can cool the column down enough.Of course saying that even if that were to happen there would likely not be any accumulation. I am expecting most accumulation to stay mainly along and north of highway 105.

i ignore hgx. too much negativity about snow. i am nowcasting by watching the exact movement of the cold core low and its digging. it is crossing the az nm border south of the 4 corners.

the column will be more than cold enough. people are forgetting there is a cold core low coming for the area.

Tonight’s run and tomorrow morning should be fun, 18z keeps shifting little south

Here is the latest from Jeff, the last paragraph is key


NWS has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning…no changes to the counties

Polk and San Jacinto Counties have been added to a Winter Storm Watch.

There has been little change today to the reasoning and forecast with the upcoming winter storm. Moisture is rapidly increasing from the SW and clouds will overspread the area this evening with rain developing early Sunday morning from SW to NE across the area. As the upper trough approaches in the afternoon and the coastal surface low begins to move eastward over the NW Gulf of Mexico, profiles become increasingly favorable for a transition of rain to snow across the northern 1/3rd of SE TX or in the warning area. Snowfall accumulations in the warning area will likely average 1-3 inches with some higher totals of up to 6 inches possible. Meso scale models continue to point toward banded precipitation features which increases the risk of heavy snow bands in this area and quick accumulation potential. Surface temperatures will cool toward freezing with the snowfall and bridges and overpasses may become icy as falling snow melts on contact with the warm roadways and then freezes into ice as the surface temperatures cool. Travel could become hazardous in the warning area Sunday night into Monday morning.

Rain may mix with snow further to the south across portions of Austin, Waller, Montgomery and northern Liberty Counties and possibly even NW Harris County, but little to no accumulation is expected in these areas…at this time and no travel impacts are expected.

While confidence is no moderate to high, there remains some degree of uncertainty where the heavier snow bands will develop and exactly how far south the snow transition and rain/snow mix will extend, thus it will be important to monitor conditions on Sunday for any changes.

What about Montgomery county?

Eye to the sky. Big Snow on the Horizon.



Skidog49

It seems every other forecast the NWS adds and then takes away “mixed with snow”

This morning, they had added it back in. In this afternoon’s update, they took it out again. All rain with a low of 34.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:11 pm It seems every other forecast the NWS adds and then takes away “mixed with snow”

This morning, they had added it back in. In this afternoon’s update, they took it out again. All rain with a low of 34.

Ya I've noticed that as well...im guessing they are still not confident in certain areas or waiting till it actually falls from the sky to put it in lol

I was sooo hoping Tomball would get at least an inch. Beginning to seriously dislike the 105 line!

This is kind of funny....my daughter left College Station today to fly to Colorado Springs hoping to see some snow ( which she will) but C.S. may get 6-8" tomorrow.....

The latest RAP model shows several hours of frozen precip starting tomorrow evening across Harris county.

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pm The latest RAP model shows several hours of frozen precip starting tomorrow evening across Harris county.

Across the entire county? Any indications of how much?

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:23 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pm The latest RAP model shows several hours of frozen precip starting tomorrow evening across Harris county.

Across the entire county? Any indications of how much?

Witch way is it moving? North or South? Or east

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:23 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pm The latest RAP model shows several hours of frozen precip starting tomorrow evening across Harris county.

Across the entire county? Any indications of how much?

Mainly north of the 59 corridor, but again i wouldn't expect any accumulation though.

18z GFS looks interesting again for next weekend.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:34 pm 18z GFS looks interesting again for next weekend.

Don't even start....

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:38 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:34 pm 18z GFS looks interesting again for next weekend.

Don't even start....

Maybe us southern folks can get something next weekend lol

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:43 pm

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:38 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:34 pm 18z GFS looks interesting again for next weekend.

Don't even start....

Maybe us southern folks can get something next weekend lol

South of the 105!!