don wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:54 am
Tropical Storm Don of 2011. I don't expect that to happen though as that mainly happened due to the historical severe drought that year.
The High Pressure Ridge of Death ate him. Literally at him. At S2K, the thread is both funny and sad at the same time. 2011 was a year I want to forget, meteorological wise.
Lol yea that is definitely 1 year I don't want to experience ever again. It was unreal watching that storm just dissolve like it did.
Josh Morgerman's chase account of Don is an interesting read - especially this part: "Cory's and my experience on the ground suggests that the system's disintegration might have been even faster and earlier than operationally believed."
The High Pressure Ridge of Death ate him. Literally at him. At S2K, the thread is both funny and sad at the same time. 2011 was a year I want to forget, meteorological wise.
Lol yea that is definitely 1 year I don't want to experience ever again. It was unreal watching that storm just dissolve like it did.
Josh Morgerman's chase account of Don is an interesting read - especially this part: "Cory's and my experience on the ground suggests that the system's disintegration might have been even faster and earlier than operationally believed."
I was wild, funny, weird, strange, illogical, unbelievable, all at the same time. I reread the thread. The disbelief from you, me, Porta ( and a whole host of others) was just, well just. We were all wanting just some rain that year. I think by the time Don was done for, as it were, our last nerve was frayed to be honest, Jason
Lol yea that is definitely 1 year I don't want to experience ever again. It was unreal watching that storm just dissolve like it did.
Josh Morgerman's chase account of Don is an interesting read - especially this part: "Cory's and my experience on the ground suggests that the system's disintegration might have been even faster and earlier than operationally believed."
I was wild, funny, weird, strange, illogical, unbelievable, all at the same time. I reread the thread. The disbelief from you, me, Porta ( and a whole host of others) was just, well just. We were all wanting just some rain that year. I think by the time Don was done for, as it were, our last nerve was frayed to be honest, Jason
lol You can't really blame "the system." Don was brickwalled by a biblical Death Ridge.
The fires near Bastrop. Young red oak after red oak in our yard biting the dust in 2011 or from the stress over the next 3 years.
So far the Globals have trended weaker and further West with 14. Euro coming shortly. RECON will be busy including G-IV Synopic Missions for both Laura and 14...
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0245 PM EDT THU 20 AUGUST 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-086 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 22/0000Z A. 21/2330Z
B. NOAA9 0313A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0413A CYCLONE
C. 21/1730Z C. 21/2100Z
D. NA D. 18.9N 61.6W
E. NA E. 21/2130Z TO 22/0400Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42
A. 22/1130Z
B. NOAA2 0513A CYCLONE
C. 22/0900Z
D. 19.6N 64.7W (CORRECTED)
E. 22/0830Z TO 22/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 21/2330Z,22/0530Z A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0314A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0414A CYCLONE
C. 21/2000Z C. 22/0530Z
D. 17.1N 85.5W D. NA
E. 21/2315Z TO 22/0530Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 22/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0514A CYCLONE
C. 22/0815Z
D. 18.4N 86.4W (CORRECTED)
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. TWO ADDITIONAL NOAA P-3 TDR MISSIONS INTO TD 13, DEPARTING
TISX TENTATIVELY AT 22/2100Z AND 23/0800Z.
B. USAF RESERVE WC-130 FIX MISSION INTO TD 13 FOR 23/0530Z.
C. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON TD 14 IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
D. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 13 FOR
23/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/1730Z.
E. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 14 FOR
23/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 23/0530Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Speaking of the Don thread - there are so many posts on there that in hindsight, read so differently now.
One that stuck out to me was on 7/28/11 - that night before landfall and everyone was going gaga over a suddenly intensifying Don, and it looks like my post was the very first one to rain on that parade and mention the dry air:
We all eyes on the tropics I see we may have some storms today. Areas just to the NW, W, and SW of Houston have a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. From the SPC:
...Southeast Texas...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop near a
weak boundary this afternoon. With ample moisture/instability and
upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, thermodynamic profiles appear to
be conducive for the possibility of a few wet microbursts with
potential for localized wind damage
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And let me be clear about the hurricane models. They can often overdue a storm on intensity and sometimes be outliers but they are big tools in modeling guidance for the NHC and why you will often see them in the discussion. They can't immediately be dismissed.
snowman65 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:13 pm
I don't recall so much chatter and model interests about a system that doesn't even have a name yet. Should be an interesting 3-4 days ahead.
The possibility of two storms in the GoM at the same time is pretty crazy! And it is 2020 after all.
Big change in the 12z EURO showing a landfall around Corpus Christi.At least this time it looks like this storm will be lopsided to the north and east of the center due to shear instead of to the south like Hanna was.Which would allow much more moisture than what we got with Hanna,but the flood threat would increase as well though. GFS may been on to something.
