January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...

[Cpv17]

Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...

So by reading that, you think it could be colder than the upper 20’s? That’s what the models are saying right now for Sunday & Monday mornings, which is cold, but not anything out of the ordinary for January. A hard freeze would be below 25, right?

[jasons2k]

Locally, the NWS issues a hard freeze warning at 28 degrees.

[TexasMetBlake]

Also, anecdotally speaking, I think the arctic front plows through here earlier than the models are showing. I’ve seen it too many times, especially a front being powered by a 1045+ high. After careful consideration and taking that into account, Brooks and I decided to undercut guidance significantly for Saturday. I think we could be in the 40s before lunch. Maybe not out of the 30s on Sunday—which the Euro agrees. We went 40 for a high Sunday given the abundant sunshine expected.

[CRASHWX]

Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...

Good advise...and a little mischief might be fun! Time will tell the tale!

[tireman4]

Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...

Good advise...and a little mischief might be fun! Time will tell the tale!

Srain's specialty is long range forecasting, so he knows a thing or two about a thing or two. He is a really good pro met, so listen to his wise judgement. He has been doing this a long time.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow

[CRASHWX]

Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...

Good advise...and a little mischief might be fun! Time will tell the tale!

Srain's specialty is long range forecasting, so he knows a thing or two about a thing or two. He is a really good pro met, so listen to his wise judgement. He has been doing this a long time.

Oh I am a fan trust me! Look I am a weather enthusiast and I get post happy but trust me I value all you guy opinions and straight out up knowledge. I hope know one takes anything I say or post as being over the top. But no worries here...I just love the weather and all that that implies!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not gonna lie... I felt a tingle in the nethers reading the 18z GFS FOR mid next week

[Kingwood36]

The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow

Snow and freezing rain everywhere except here lol

[Kingwood36]

Judging by that map would that swing east over to Houston IF it did verify?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow

Snow and freezing rain everywhere except here lol

I get it in Montgomery County

[Kingwood36]

The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow

Snow and freezing rain everywhere except here lol

I get it in Montgomery County

Well I would to I believe

[MontgomeryCoWx]

On the 228 frame, all of Montgomery and parts of Harris get tagged.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... cus_38.png

Then at 234 we all get snow

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... cus_39.png

[Kingwood36]

On the 228 frame, all of Montgomery and parts of Harris get tagged.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... cus_38.png

Then at 234 we all get snow

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... cus_39.png

Except the coast

[TexasMetBlake]

Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.

[Cpv17]

Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.

Haha hey it’s fun!! We all know the consequences, but still do it anyway.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.

Oh, I know better, but those 3 frames are model porn and well, I’m going to wish.

With that said, the pattern is ripe and I do think we see another winter event or two.... whether that’s next week or February is of no substance to me.

[CRASHWX]

Many times I notice that when it comes goes several times all the sudden the mean community picks it and brings it to fruition and or it comes back solid in the last couple of days of the operational models. But Blake you are right it’s live and die! LOL

[Katdaddy]

The mid-level cloud deck finally arrived in NW Galveston County at sunset. Been there many times with the SE TX Winter weather“omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” as Blake posted. Its exhausting and I follow the short range models these days more the long range but raise an eyebrow if long models show consistency for multiple runs.