May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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unome
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Andrew wrote:Another tornado warning for brenham
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/# ... 1605262245


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 543 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BURTON...OR 8 MILES WEST OF BRENHAM...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENHAM...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINE ISLAND...BURTON AND QUARRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9659 3023 9661 3031 9602 3005 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 266DEG 14KT 3013 9654

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN
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srainhoutx
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mcheer23 wrote:Is South of i10 safe
It's too early to say with any certainty. When we see an West to East boundary basically stalled or drifting E/SE, it raises -an eyebrow. The rainfall rates are not that different from the April 17th -18th Regional Flood Event. Remember all that water has to flow S toward the Addicks/Baker Reservoirs and into Cypress Creek, S Mayde Creek and Northern White Oak Bayou. There is another strong disturbance head our way from the SW near the Rio Grande Valley and Mexico. We will be on Weather Watch all night. ;)

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unome
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http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/# ... 1605262250

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 547 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CUT AND SHOOT TO NEAR THE WOODLANDS TO NEAR
STAGECOACH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...TOMBALL...CLEVELAND...WILLIS...PINEHURST...SPRING...THE
WOODLANDS...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHEPHERD...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...
SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...MAGNOLIA...WOODBRANCH...CUT
AND SHOOT...STAGECOACH...NORTH CLEVELAND AND WOODLOCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE CONROE...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 9496 3018 9517 3005 9532 3010 9579
3029 9570 3050 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 272DEG 18KT 3039 9538 3020 9551 3012 9569

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
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BlueJay
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It is a WALL of water
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Andrew
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mesoscale analysis indicates that areas around the la grange to sealy could see some development as it slowly progresses southward.
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srainhoutx
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This is why I am a bit concerned. Giddings getting hit with 2-4 inch per rainfall rates now well to our West along I-10.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 557 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GIDDINGS...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GIDDINGS...ROUND TOP...CARMINE...NECHANITZ...WARDA...WALDECK...LEDBETTER
AND WINEDALE.
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Ounce
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It does appear part of the cluster from Brenham to the Woodlands is sagging south.
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srainhoutx
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Jeff reports 6.25 inches on rain in the past 2 hour Lake Creek/Western Montgomery County
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srainhoutx
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NWS Austin/San Antonio reports many roads closed now in Giddings/Lee County via Sheriffs Office.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

4.60 inches in 1-hr at Lake Conroe Dam.

Excessive rainfall moving into Harris County as slow moving line of intense thunderstorms sags southward. Hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour are likely with rapid onset flash flooding. 2-hr totals over 6.0 inches over SW/W Montgomery County and 3-hr totals nearing 10-12 inches over Washington and N Waller Counties.

Expect this line to progress into Harris County with similar rainfall rates and rapid onset flash flooding.
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unome
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https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/7 ... 1788393474

IEMBot HGX
‏@iembot_hgx

CONROE/MONTGOMERY COUNTY AIRPORT,TX (CXO) ASOS reports gust of 58.0 knots (66.8 mph) from NNW @ 2307Z
4:12 PM - 26 May 2016
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DoctorMu
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Andrew wrote:Another tornado warning for brenham

Another massive hook echo. Take cover!
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unome
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http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#H ... 62303/0100

4 SE CONROE, TX
Time: 2016-05-26T23:03:00Z UTC
Event: TSTM WND DMG
Source: TRAINED SPOTTER
Remark: LARGE LIMBS STRIPPED OFF TREES.
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Ounce
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Some of the Weatherbug sites that are reporting rain amounts, so far:
The Woodlands Christian Academy - 3.07"
Brenham ISD - 4.29", top wind today - N 35 mph
Brenham Municipal Airport - 5.88", top wind today - N 32 mph
Tower Point College Station - 4.47", top wind today - N 28 mph
Easterwood Field, College Station - 5.74", top wind today - N 31 mph
Giddings/Lee County Airport - 1.81"
Huntsville Municipal Airport - 1.92", top wind today - N 25 mph
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mcheer23
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It does look like the line is starting to progress south...
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srainhoutx
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05262016 mcd0750.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262325Z - 270100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SE TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING MCS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD ACROSS
SE TX. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW HAS HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
HOUR /BASED ON THE HGX VAD/ WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SVR THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX IS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS RESULTING
FROM WATER LOADED UPDRAFTS. A FEW OF THE NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AS THEY
TRACK EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE BEFORE THESE STORMS ARE COMPLETELY UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW.
ANOTHER LOCALIZED AREA OF GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MONTGOMERY/SAN JACINTO COUNTY BORDER WHERE RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A
BOOK-END VORTEX MAY BE DEVELOPING. OVERALL...ISOLATED SVR THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..MOSIER/GUYER.. 05/26/2016


ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...
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srainhoutx
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Folks along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River below Lake Conroe Dam...heads up. Near 7 inches of rainfall...so far
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srainhoutx
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Cloud tops NW of Metro Houston continue to be very cold if not colder than they were an hour ago. These long lived Mesoscale Convective Systems tend to feed off the very deep tropical moisture and instability.
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srainhoutx wrote:Cloud tops NW of Metro Houston continue to be very cold if not colder than they were an hour ago. These long lived Mesoscale Convective Systems tend to feed off the very deep tropical moisture and instability.

Yea that agrees with mesoscale analysis. I am thinking west of the houston area will see the higher new totals.
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unome
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srainhoutx wrote:Cloud tops NW of Metro Houston continue to be very cold if not colder than they were an hour ago. These long lived Mesoscale Convective Systems tend to feed off the very deep tropical moisture and instability.
have been nervously watching it drop further south, we've lucked out so far but it looks like that might change

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