April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[davidiowx]

What in the world is this idiot doing!?!?!

https://twitter.com/rcb05/status/722101601544982528

[Andrew]

What in the world is this idiot doing!?!?!

https://twitter.com/rcb05/status/722101601544982528

That video is from memphis a month or two ago.

[davidiowx]

What in the world is this idiot doing!?!?!

https://twitter.com/rcb05/status/722101601544982528

That video is from memphis a month or two ago.

Whoops. Sorry about that. My mistake.

[Ounce]

There's a big blob in the Gulf, east of Brownsville that seems to be turning north.

Appears the Big Blob in the Gulf will slide east as it progresses northward, possibly hitting that outflow boundary that's heading south from our coast.

[Ounce]

Looks like the powerful outflow boundary has finally lost its power and is now migrating NNE.

[djmike]

Ok now that the majority has shifted southeastward, what can we expect? More rounds later or another system later? If so will the dynamics be in place again for another deluge? I know its hard to say whats gonna happen next but we usually know if another system will rotate around this low. Just wandering if light rain from now till Wednesday or more bouts of heavy downpours are possible again. Thanks in advance.

[Cromagnum]

From info and data that I saw it looks like the heavy downpours were going to fire up again later this evening.

[mcheer23]

Looks like the next area we have to watch is out near Del Rio right now.

That would possibly come into town the same time as it did today, tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Stay safe.

[djmike]

Thank you

[srainhoutx]

While additional showers and storms are expected this evening into the overnight hours and early Tuesday, rainfall totals do not appear to be as high as we experienced overnight and today. That said the ground is fully saturated and the bayou's are not receding as fast because of the magnitude of the Flood Event across Waller and NW, N Harris and Montgomery Counties. Another concern is River Flooding waves moving down from Central and N Texas. As long as that pesky upper low/trough sits and spins nearly stationary, we will need to monitor for any thunderstorm complex that organizes to our SW and W.

[Andrew]

Interesting to note the HRRR shows no redevelopment tonight. The atmosphere is pretty worked over so I'm not completely sure if storms will redevelop but the storms in the Del Rio are going to need to be watched. Luckily this lull in storms is helping a lot.

[jasons2k]

It didn't show the development last night, either. It had an MCS moving in from Central Texas towards sunrise.

I guess it depends on if SW flow and the LLJ can get re-established. If not tonight, perhaps tomorrow?

[Ounce]

Impressive line coming out of Corpus.

[Texaspirate11]

I have posted information on shelters in the emergency preparedness for people with disabilities here
All shelters are opened to residents in the various areas. Please share if people need them.

[Andrew]

It didn't show the development last night, either. It had an MCS moving in from Central Texas towards sunrise.

I guess it depends on if SW flow and the LLJ can get re-established. If not tonight, perhaps tomorrow?

It had development but was later with the progression. It will be interesting to see how the atmosphere can recover this afternoon.

[jasons2k]

The latest HRRR and HRRR experimental sorta just slowly dissipate everything through tomorrow morning. Radar trends suggest a slow increase to the W and SW, at least for now.

[ticka1]

slow increase in rain/storms? I am sure jeff is catching up on sleep. Hope he puts out an weather update soon.

[Ounce]

Would think the atmosphere is pretty wrung out to the west of us. However, not sure about the area to the southwest to Corpus Christi.

[Ounce]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOODING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE REGIONAL BAYOUS AND
CREEKS...AND THESE SWOLLEN OUT OF BANKS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WESTERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASS AROUND THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SLOW NORTHEAST WOBBLING UPPER LOW OUT OF
COLORADO. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THE RE-
OCCURRENCE OF PERIODS OF HIGH RAINFALL EXACERBATING FLOODING
CONCERNS. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RATES TO AGAIN CREATE URBAN SHEET (STREET) FLOODING AND LIFT LOCAL
AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS UP ABOVE LOW/MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
(IF THESE RATES FALL ON OR JUST UPSTREAM OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
BASINS). RECENT INSPECTION OF COMPOSITE RADAR DEPICTS THE NEXT
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION (FROM THE NEXT WAVE-IN-LINE WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW) TRAVELING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THAT
MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN/STORMS THAT IS MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE COASTAL
BEND THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH EXTREME RATES OF GREATER THAN 8
INCHES ARE NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN AN AREAWIDE 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
NEAR 6 INCHES. STORM MOTION MAY BE A BIT FASTER (THAN THIS MORNING)
BUT NOT OVERLY SO AS 1) CURRENT STORM MOTION IS SLOW OVER CRP`S
FA AND 2) THE MAIN SW-TO-NE SYNOPTIC STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL
RESIDES OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. IN THE QUIET NEAR TERM THE STILL MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE RE-CHARGING AND...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE ENTERS FROM
THE WEST...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THAT CAN PRODUCE 1-2 INCH PER
HOUR RATES WILL STILL CREATE PROBLEMS OVER THESE SATURATED GROUNDS/
SWOLLEN TRIBUTARIES.

THIS 5H LOW WILL WOBBLE EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN PLAINS AS AN
UPPER WAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BEGIN THE DRYING
OUT PROCESS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 6 HOUR QPF IN
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN PLACE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE TIMING OF
EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
REGIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT AND AMOUNTS HARD TO PIN-
POINT SO...FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...EXPECT RETURN PERIODS OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL AGGRAVATE LOCAL FLOODING WHILE MONITORING RADAR/FUTURE
FORECASTS AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY. UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD IN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT PRECIPITATION. EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE BACK TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW DIVES DOWN OUT OF CA AND INTO THE DESERT SW SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTURE PUMP IN PLACE (GREATER THAN
1.6 INCH PWATS AGAIN?) WHILE ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVELS TO BECOME
MORE DIFFULENT IN TIME. DAY TO DAY MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
FALL IN THE AVERAGE MID-UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING WILL OCCUR ON DAILY
LATE WEEK MORNING`S MIN TEMPS BEHIND FRIDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31

&&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER COASTAL
AREAS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...CHAMBERS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS BRAZORIA
AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT. EARLIER TODAY WATER LEVELS PEAKED AROUND 4 FEET AT HIGH
TIDES IN THE WARNING AREA AND AROUND 3.5 FEET IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TIME
PERIOD AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER WATER LEVELS ON TUESDAY IF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE DUE TO ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOP.

OVER THE GULF...SEAS OF 8 FEET SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND
AREAS. 40

[Ounce]

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A PORTION OF SW TX...

...SUMMARY...
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...TX...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR ISOLD SEVERE TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE
PERIOD WHILE A NON-DESCRIPT SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE S-CNTRL
U.S. CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES/EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL EASE SWD INTO
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX BY EARLY TUESDAY. DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF DAY-1 STORM COMPLEXES OVER TX...IT IS POSSIBLE A RESERVOIR OF
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F/ MAY STILL RESIDE
OVER S TX AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRIOR
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER
SUPPORT SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED WITH A
CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY FROM S TX NWWD IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO SW TX. A FEW STORMS MAY PERHAPS DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SW TX AND ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY YIELD A
SHORT-LIVED THREAT FOR STRONG MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF A MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND RISK.

FARTHER N OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WEAK CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOBE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT MOVES EWD
THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WEAKENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

..SMITH.. 04/18/2016