April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

[srainhoutx]

A pleasant weather day is ahead for today with lower temperatures and dewpoints but changes begin on Tuesday as a return flow off the Gulf becomes reestablished. A very noisy sub tropical jet remains overhead as well as another developing trough out West. The Western trough will allow disturbances to rotate beneath the base of the trough tapping deep tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean and advance across Mexico into Texas by mid week. Rich tropical moisture once again begins to stream N from the Western Gulf setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms developing once again. There are some timing issues within the various computer model schemes, but it does appear we will once again be on Weather Watch beginning Wednesday into Friday and possibly into Saturday. Stay Tuned.

Water Vapor Imagery:


European Model:

04202015 00Z Euro 72 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_4.png

04202015 00Z Euro 96 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_5.png

04202015 00Z Euro 120 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_6.png

GFS Model:

04202015 06Z GFS 96 gfs_z500a_sd_namer_17.png

04202015 06Z GFS 72 gfs_z500a_sd_namer_13.png

04202015 06Z GFS 120 gfs_z500a_sd_namer_21.png

[Katdaddy]

Finally a few nice weather days ahead for SE TX however Wednesday will bring increasing thunderstorm chances. More severe weather is possible by the end of the week but for now I will enjoy the mostly sunny skies.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff with storm reports from yesterday afternoon/evening across SE Texas:

Several intense supercell thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon starting around 300pm near College Station and moving into the Houston area between 500-700pm. Cold mid level temperatures combined with strong surface heating (mid 80’s) to generate intense updrafts that resulted in very large hail production with the thunderstorms.

Cores of damaging hail (Golf ball or greater) occurred in at least four locations across the region.

1) Lake Somerville/Lyons area

2) Colorado County near Columbus

3) Hempstead to Waller to Copperfield to Jersey Village

4) Magnolia to Tomball to Spring

The largest and most damaging hail appeared the occur on the south side of Tomball to just north of Jersey Village where several reports of Golf ball to baseball size hail were reported.

Bryan, Brazos: Nickle size hail
Somerville, Burleson: Baseball size hail
2 S Somerville, Washington: 1.0 inch diameter hail
10 E Somerville, Washington: Dime size hail
Magnolia, Montgomery: 1.0 inch hail on FM 1488 near Magnolia
5 S Magnolia, Montgomery: Quarter size hail
The Woodlands, Montgomery: Quarter size hail
Hempstead, Waller: 1.0 inch diameter hail
Hempstead, Waller: 1.75 inch diameter hail
Waller, Waller: 2.0 inch diameter hail
3 S Tomball, Harris: Baseball size hail SH 249/Boudreaux Rd…damage to roofs, windows, vegetation
Tomball, Harris: Golf ball size hail SH 249/Louetta Rd
Tomball, Harris: Golf ball size hail at SH 249/Cypresswood Dr
Spring, Harris: Quarter to Golf ball size hail reported in Spring along FM 1960 near Kuykendahl
Cy Fair, Harris: Quarter size hail reported in Champions Forest area
Sealy, Austin: Ping pong ball size hail reported by WFO Midland employee
Jersey Village, Harris: Golf ball size hail at US 290/Beltway 8
Jersey Village, Harris: Golf ball size hail at West Little York/North Eldridge Pkwy
Jersey Village, Harris: Steeplechase Apartments struck by lightning…several units destroyed
Old River Winfree, Liberty: Golf ball size hail 6 miles NE of Mont Belvieu
Fulshear, Fort Bend: Quarter size hail in City of Weston Lakes
Columbus, Colorado: Golf ball size hail reported along I-10.
Houston, Harris: Quarter size hail in Houston Heights
Weimer, Colorado: Quarter size hail
Pearland, Brazoria: Nickel size hail at FM 521 and CR 2234
Fresno, Brazoria: 1.0 inch diameter hail at HWY 518 and HWY 288.

Each of the last four days have generated severe storm reports across SE TX. This has been one of the most active severe weather periods across SE TX in many years.

[BlueJay]

I got to see the double rainbow that was proudly displayed in the sky yesterday early evening. What a sight! What a treat!

[Andrew]

Difficult pattern to forecast coming up this week. The slow synoptic progression continues to take place across much of the country as any shortwaves take a while to eject through the region. Models have been having issues resolving this and it has been showing in their day to day inconsistencies. Overall consensus though is a general deepening of a mid-level cut off low/ trough over the west coast that should slowly push eastward through the end of the week. As this disturbance pushes east, multiple Vort-maxes will rotate around the base of the trough, producing enough lift to spark showers and storms across the region. Most models are in pretty good agreement that the highest chances of rain (and severe) will stay further north along the Tx/Ok border near the triple point, but with such strong surface heating and steep mid-level lapse rates around here any storms that do develop could be severe. Models estimate a good 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE with 40 to 50kts of effective shear. While lower levels don't look impressive, hail and wind could be an issue. Once again though highest probabilities for rain on Wednesday and Thursday should stay further north near the track of the shortwave/ triple point.

On Friday conditions begin to change though as cyclogenesis occurs lee of the rockies near the Texas Panhandle, with some models indicating pressures dropping close to 990mb. This low should track to the East and southeast on Friday and Saturday with a weak frontal boundary sagging south towards the region. Once again strong CAPE and updrafts would support hail and winds as the main severe threat, but organization should be better as surface convergence from the front allows a line to develop. Still a lot of questions to be answered though and I suspect some of the mesoscale models will have a better handle on things by Wednesday.

[Paul Robison]

Difficult pattern to forecast coming up this week. The slow synoptic progression continues to take place across much of the country as any shortwaves take a while to eject through the region. Models have been having issues resolving this and it has been showing in their day to day inconsistencies. Overall consensus though is a general deepening of a mid-level cut off low/ trough over the west coast that should slowly push eastward through the end of the week. As this disturbance pushes east, multiple Vort-maxes will rotate around the base of the trough, producing enough lift to spark showers and storms across the region. Most models are in pretty good agreement that the highest chances of rain (and severe) will stay further north along the Tx/Ok border near the triple point, but with such strong surface heating and steep mid-level lapse rates around here any storms that do develop could be severe. Models estimate a good 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE with 40 to 50kts of effective shear. While lower levels don't look impressive, hail and wind could be an issue. Once again though highest probabilities for rain on Wednesday and Thursday should stay further north near the track of the shortwave/ triple point.

On Friday conditions begin to change though as cyclogenesis occurs lee of the rockies near the Texas Panhandle, with some models indicating pressures dropping close to 990mb. This low should track to the East and southeast on Friday and Saturday with a weak frontal boundary sagging south towards the region. Once again strong CAPE and updrafts would support hail and winds as the main severe threat, but organization should be better as surface convergence from the front allows a line to develop. Still a lot of questions to be answered though and I suspect some of the mesoscale models will have a better handle on things by Wednesday.

Yes, indeed!

Note lower probabilities for our area. Good news, right?
Would be nice if someone agreed with me. (No drama intended)

[srainhoutx]

The cool high pressure that brought our pleasant weather will begin to shift East later today. A split zonal flow regime begins to transition to a more WSW to SW flow as another Western trough organizes. Several upper air disturbances begin to drop S from the Pacific Northwest into the Southern California/Baja Peninsula Region tapping deep tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean spreading mid/upper level moisture across Mexico and Texas/Louisiana. A dryline will begin to set up across West Texas into Western Oklahoma by Wednesday and should be the focal point for initiating storms. It appears a triple point will become established across Western Oklahoma Wednesday into Thursday where strong to severe storms organize into a Mesoscale Convective System and drops ESE into NE Texas and North Central Louisiana on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty within the various computer model schemes as several embedded shortwave disturbances rotate beneath the base of the Western trough. Capping issues may inhibit storm development across Central/N Central and SE Texas on Wednesday, but Thursday could bring a round of severe weather to the Dallas area on Thursday.

As Andrew mentioned, Friday may be an active weather day across portions of Central/SE/E Texas into Louisiana as a much stronger disturbance develops into a surface low across the Texas Panhandle. A Pacific front begins to sag SE with increasing chances for strong to severe storms developing across Central and SE Texas into Louisiana. The fly in the ointment continues to be whether or not the front clears the Coast. The GFS is more progressive than the European model solution, so we will have to see just how the late week sensible weather will unfold. There are some indications that yet another upper air disturbance arrives late Sunday into Monday continuing our unsettled weather pattern.

[Katdaddy]

The current SPC graphics

[srainhoutx]

Return flow off the Western Gulf is underway. Dewpoints and PW's will be increasing overnight as deeper tropical moisture surges inland and gusty SE winds pick up as the low level jet increases in advance of a deepening Western trough. Showers and some storms have produced pea size hail in the Dallas area today and a disturbance rides ESE in the upper flow. The 12Z computer guidance is suggesting that a Pacific front will stall Friday night somewhere along the I-10 Corridor with a possibly stronger disturbance pushing across portions of Texas Sunday afternoon/evening bringing additional storm chances this weekend. It appears we may be headed toward another several days of unsettled weather with several rounds of potential severe storms Wednesday afternoon into Friday and possibly extending into early Saturday.

04212015 19Z_metars_abi.gif

04212015 1924Z latest.jpg

[Katdaddy]

As the Houston-Galveston NWS states "a complicated forecast unfolding today and the rest of week". The SPC most of Central, S, NW, N, NE and E TX in a slight risk area the next 3 days with S Panhandle, NW, N, and NE TX in an enhanced risk this afternoon and evening with severe weather looking more likely in those areas.

The heading from this morning's Ft Worth NWS AFD highlights the Central and NTX severe threat

...SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY…

If you have friends, family, co-workers in NW, N, and NE TX be sure they are aware of the severe weather threat the next 3 days. Further S across SE TX storms are forecast to develop E of the Brazos River and push E into SE TX. As the Housto-Galveston NWS states "not everyone will see storms today but those that do could see strong to severe storms quickly develop. Additional severe storms could occur overnight as a NTX MCS develops and possible skirts areas to the N and E of Houston metro. Severe weather again looks possible Thursday however the cap looks to be stronger however daytime heating and any left over surface boundaries could lead to more development but as the Houston-Galveston states "lower confidence exists in actual storm development". Friday looks to be another active severe weather day but still 2 days out. Be weather aware this afternoon and keep an eye to the sky as the Spring severe weather season remains active over the S Plains.

[srainhoutx]

FYI: I have had some inquiries since yesterday asking why the NWS sites are down. This technical issue is with the Southern Regional Headquarter servers and the technicians have been work on correcting the problems since yesterday. The links to the Storm Prediction Center and all other data is available. type in your zip code or city and you will gain access to the text data for the various Weather Forecasting Offices.

[snowman65]

Can anyone in here please give me a halfway reliable forecast for this Saturday for Houston/Baytown? TWC, accuweather, intellicast all go form 80% rain to 20% rain.....then back to 80% rain....every 30 minutes it's updated.....Thanks

[srainhoutx]

Can anyone in here please give me a halfway reliable forecast for this Saturday for Houston/Baytown? TWC, accuweather, intellicast all go form 80% rain to 20% rain.....then back to 80% rain....every 30 minutes it's updated.....Thanks

As of this morning, it looks like we could have some scattered strong storms possible Saturday morning. The general theme via the various computer schemes has been to slow things down a tad regarding the impulses ejecting from the West to East across our Region. It may take until Monday morning or so to finally get a Pacific front through the area to end our rain and storm chances. NWS Houston/Galveston mentioned how complicated this forecast is and that not everyone will see rain or storms. Right now, this series of storms and potentially severe weather does not look like last week, but with the uncertainty, we will continue to follow things closely.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF
TEXAS...EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...AND THE
MIDDLE-UPPER COASTAL PLAIN OF TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND...A FEW
TORNADOES...AND VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
MIGHT INTENSIFY BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LEVELS TODAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THREE
PRINCIPAL SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES...
1. BIG CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NRN ONT BETWEEN LS AND JAMES BAY
ATTM...FCST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD WHILE BECOMING DEFORMED/ELONGATED
IN NW-SE DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS VORTICITY MAXIMA NOW OVER
INDIANA AND MN PIVOT THROUGH SRN SEMICIRCLE OF LARGER-SCALE
GYRE...BECOME CLOSER IN PROXIMITY...AND RESULT IN STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER ERN MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z.
2. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CA AND ADJOINING PAC
WATERS...ENCIRCLING TWO PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SRN CA AND
OVER PAC NEAR 125W. LEADING MAX WILL DRIFT AROUND SRN CA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH PERIOD AS PAC PERTURBATION DEEPENS AND DIGS SEWD OFFSHORE
BAJA. NET RESULT BY 12Z SHOULD BE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM GREAT
BASIN TO SRN CA AND EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 120W W OF BAJA.
3. RIDGING FROM DEEP S TX NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE THIS
RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD...AND IN FACT SHOULD AMPLIFY
AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD BE PENETRATED BY WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS EJECTING NEWD FROM AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER PAC
COAST REGION AND NWRN MEX.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY SWWD ACROSS
NRN/WRN PA TO NRN KY...OZARKS...AND NERN OK. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE
OVER OK AND TX PANHANDLE IS BEING REINFORCED/SHUNTED SWD BY OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN OK. OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL ZONE AND DRYLINE INTERSECTED THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE. THAT INTERSECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SRN
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION TODAY IN STEP WITH PROGRESS OF
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE OVER S
FL SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THAT REGION TODAY IN SUPPORT OF GEN TSTM
POTENTIAL.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER OK WILL POSE RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STG GUSTS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN OK
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 414 FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE DETAILS. IF
IT SURVIVES TO REACH RETURN-FLOW MOIST SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC WARMING AND MOIST ADVECTION...SRN
PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AND GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS
OVER RED RIVER REGION...THEN HEAD SEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX AND PERHAPS
MORE OF LA LATER TODAY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL WOULD BE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

FARTHER W...MOIST SECTOR WILL NARROW WITH NWWD EXTENT BETWEEN FRONT
AND DRYLINE...EACH OF WHICH MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS AFTN. NW OF DRYLINE...AIR MASS ALONG AND BEHIND
FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE SOME AS IT HEATS DIABATICALLY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT AND ADEQUATE POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE...IN
SUPPORT OF DEVELOPMENT. WHILE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
MAY BE INVOF FRONT ANYWHERE BETWEEN NE TX AND NERN NM...A FEW
DRYLINE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR
WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO.

MOIST SECTOR S OF FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
F...11-13 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG ATOP
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT VEER WITH
HEIGHT. HOWEVER...BACKED FLOW ALONG FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY...IN ADDITION TO PRESENCE OF MAXIMIZED
BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY. FOR THOSE REASONS...ANY STORM OR STORMS
THAT CAN REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT WITH WARM-SECTOR INFLOW WILL OFFER
GREATEST TORNADO/MESOCYCLONE THREAT. UPSCALE EXPANSION OF
CONVECTION MAY POSE GREATEST IMPEDIMENT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL
CHARACTER WITH TIME...BUT ALSO WILL MAINTAIN AND EXPAND SEVERE RISK
SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WARM SECTOR IN
SRN...CENTRAL OR E TX...THOUGH FOCI AND BEST TIMING FOR SUCH
INITIATION REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM.

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04222015 SPC day1probotlk_20150422_1300_hail_prt.gif

04222015 SPC day1probotlk_20150422_1300_wind_prt.gif

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Severe thunderstorms possible today, Thursday, and Friday.

Large hail, wind damage, and heavy rainfall the main threats.

Today:
Warm, moist, and unstable air mass returning to SE TX this morning with near 70 degree dewpoints already into the Matagorda Bay region. Capping inversion has increased compared to the last few weeks (this is a layer a warm air in the mid levels of the atmosphere which helps to surpress thunderstorm development). Active sub-tropical jet remains overhead…and this appears to be the main ingredient behind what could be an active afternoon. Weak short wave over NE MX will lift ENE across SC TX midday into an air mass with surface temperatures rising into the low to mid 80’s. Forecast soundings from CLL and HOU show low to mid 80’s needed to erode the capping inversion over the region and this appears likely to happen with or without slight cooling of the mid levels from the short wave trough and its lift. Surface based instability will rise into the 1500-2500 J/kg range (this means 1kg of air holds 1500-2500 Joules of energy) and lapse rates (how quickly air will rise) steepen.

Expect storms to erupt quickly across our western counties early this afternoon (noon-200pm) and become rapidly severe with large hail and wind damage being the main threat. Shear values of 50kts will help to organize the storms…but the initial mode may be supercells with a threat for extremely large hail productions. Storms will move eastward through the afternoon hours and should weaken/exit the region this evening.

Overnight:
Another batch of severe thunderstorms will develop over NC TX this evening and form into a large forward moving thunderstorm cluster (MCS) overnight. Influx of 25-30kt low level jet this evening and overnight should help to maintain this complex of thunderstorms ESE across N TX and then into east TX. Tail end of this line of storms may clip our northern counties from College Station to Liberty early Thursday morning. Main threat will be wind damage along the leading edge of the line. This is a somewhat conditional threat and really depends on how far southward the line is able to develop.

Thursday:
As surface temperatures warm on Thursday into the upper 80’s, surface based instability will become significant across the region with CAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg by mid to late afternoon. Initial thought is that early morning storms clipping our NE counties will send some sort of outflow boundary into the region which may stall across the area Thursday. While surface based energy will be extreme, mid level capping will also increase in response to short wave ridging moving eastward from New Mexico. It will be a fight to see is enough heating and/or lift along any old outflow boundary can overcome the capping inversion. If the cap is broken, severe storms will rapidly develop with extremely large hail likely. This threat is more conditional than the threat today and really fully depends on the cap breaking.

Friday:
Another active day looks likely as a frontal boundary and short wave approach the region. Air mass will once again become increasingly unstable during the afternoon hours and thunderstorms may erupt if the capping can be overcome. Better chances appear to come after dark as a line of thunderstorms approaches from C TX. This line of thunderstorms may contain a severe wind and hail threat and move across the region between 800pm and 200am. Much uncertainty with this part of the forecast and some of the convective development depends on the prior day development across not only SE TX but also other portions of TX.

Today: Severe Weather Outlook:

04222015 Jeff 1 unnamed.jpg

Thursday: Severe Weather Outlook:

04222015 Jeff 2 unnamed.jpg

Friday: Severe Weather Outlook:

04222015 Jeff 3 unnamed.jpg

[/i]

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z Texas Tech WRF suggests some strong to possibly severe storms begin to fire this afternoon developing to the SW of Metro Houston moving generally NE.

04222015 06Z TT WRF dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f16.gif

04222015 06Z TT WRF dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f17.gif

04222015 06Z TT WRF dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f18.gif

[srainhoutx]

04222015 mcd0415.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221543Z - 221745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER SRN INTO S-CNTRL TX BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXISTS ACROSS DEEP S TX
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F. ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER
EXISTS...SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR DUE TO BREAKS LEADING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION.

A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN NWD TRANSPORT OF THIS MOIST AIR
MASS INTO CNTRL TX LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SUBTLE WAVES IN THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700
MB AS WELL AS LONG HODOGRAPHS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL
SUPPORT HAIL. WATER LOADING MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL WITH ANY OF THE LARGER CELLS OR CLUSTERS.

..JEWELL/HART.. 04/22/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[srainhoutx]

A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of the Corpus Christi area up to near Victoria.

04222015 ww0094_overview_wou.gif

[jasons2k]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 94
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1115 AM
UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TX GULF COAST REGION TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ALICE TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1125 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIVE OAK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1124 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES SOUTH OF SEVEN SISTERS...OR 7 MILES EAST OF FREER...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDWAY...SEVEN SISTERS...CLEGG...ANNAROSE AND RANCHO DE LA PARITA.