January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[Kludge]

This is the first time I can remember - it's been many years - since I recall seeing the NWS put out 100% POPS in advance. That's pretty amazing.

I also noticed they put "100" for the POP forecast. They used to use "+" instead. I wonder if that was a policy change or an oversight. Maybe this was the first time this forecaster ever had to do it?

It seems that by any policy or nomenclature they nailed this one. I think 100% of the area had a 100% probability of seeing some amount of rain.

In my business, we also make predictions... for radio system coverage. When we guarantee "95% coverage", we mean that in 95% of all locations your message will get through 95% of the time. I think that there is a close statistical correlation.

[Texaspirate11]

DID anyone catch this disco from the HGX last night?

MANY OF THE 18Z AND 00Z MODEL RUNS BRING A COLD PROFILE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO SETX FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
SNOW THAT FALLS AND MELTS BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE 39-45
DEGREES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 1500-2600FT OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXTENDING UP FROM THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT THE PRECIP. SO JUST A HEADS UP
THIS COULD LIGHT UP THE RADAR WITH BRIGHT BANDING TOMORROW ACROSS
THESE NORTHERN AREAS.

[srainhoutx]

A chilly morning will transition to a pleasant afternoon with warming temperatures and sunshine into tomorrow. High clouds with a warming trend should develop next week with a NW flow aloft. Changes begin to develop by mid week as a Eastern Pacific storm organizes and approaches the Baja. The next cold front drops into the Lone Star State on Thursday with increasing clouds and rain chances by Friday. Things get a bit interesting next Saturday as a strong Arctic front arrives with surge of very chilly air. The Baja Storm system begins to spread over running moisture above the cold surface temperatures and it is possible that wintry mischief could develop. The fly in the ointment is just how quickly the Eastern Pacific storm system crosses Mexico and just how cold the surface temperatures are. The GFS paints a wintry mess across portions of our Region as we end January and begin February. The medium range guidance is suggesting that a 1050+mb Arctic High may drop S from Western Canada into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes. To further complicate the sensible weather there is growing concern that our old friend the Polar Vortex may become established near Hudson Bay allowing a cross Polar flow to develop. It is also interesting to see some indications of a blocking regime establishing across Alaska and the Arctic. The ensembles suggest the very high heights near 4 standard deviations above normal could develop locking in a very chilly pattern into early February. With that in mind, perhaps someone would like to start a new February Topic as we near the end January...

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[unome]

we had thick frost this morning on the lawn, car, roof & a plant on our patio had crispy leaves - wasn't expecting that

[Katdaddy]

A sunny weekend is here! There will be lots of streaming cirrus clouds from the EPAC that will give TX beautiful skies, sunsets, and sunrises. Currently 44F but feels warm in the sun. I can't believe I am getting used to the cold which means the low 60s later today will feel like the 80s.?!?!?!?

[Paul Robison]

A chilly morning will transition to a pleasant afternoon with warming temperatures and sunshine into tomorrow. High clouds with a warming trend should develop next week with a NW flow aloft. Changes begin to develop by mid week as a Eastern Pacific storm organizes and approaches the Baja. The next cold front drops into the Lone Star State on Thursday with increasing clouds and rain chances by Friday. Things get a bit interesting next Saturday as a strong Arctic front arrives with surge of very chilly air. The Baja Storm system begins to spread over running moisture above the cold surface temperatures and it is possible that wintry mischief could develop. The fly in the ointment is just how quickly the Eastern Pacific storm system crosses Mexico and just how cold the surface temperatures are. The GFS paints a wintry mess across portions of our Region as we end January and begin February. The medium range guidance is suggesting that a 1050+mb Arctic High may drop S from Western Canada into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes. To further complicate the sensible weather there is growing concern that our old friend the Polar Vortex may become established near Hudson Bay allowing a cross Polar flow to develop. It is also interesting to see some indications of a blocking regime establishing across Alaska and the Arctic. The ensembles suggest the very high heights near 4 standard deviations above normal could develop locking in a very chilly pattern into early February. With that in mind, perhaps someone would like to start a new February Topic as we near the end January...

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2 questions:

1. Could we be looking at a sleet/snow/polar winds event like we had back in December 22, 1989? GFS seems to paint that picture.

2. Which is more dangerous, snow or freezing rain? (General question, no drama)

[srainhoutx]

Those with travel plans to the Mid Atlantic up to New England need to expect major travel delays tomorrow into Wednesday. Winter Storm Watches and even Blizzard Watchesare being hoisted this morning along the I-95 Corridor. Locations from near Baltimore to Boston may be measuring snow by the feet beginning tomorrow afternoon/evening and extending into early Wednesday as a powerful Nor'easter develops dropping potentially crippling snows and at least Tropical Storm force winds along the Atlantic Coast.

[redneckweather]

The theme this winter is models to be cold with a winter storm in the medium to long range but once we get within 4 or 5 days they show reality. The cold front later this week and in to the weekend will just be like this last front. There just isn't any real cold air in the northwestern territories to bring us cold air for wintry weather. That's been the theme all winter long and I believe will continue.

[Texaspirate11]

Our NWS is calling the New England snow storm "A beast"

THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE AND GO FULL BEAST MODE BOMBING OUT AS IT MOVES JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND.

[TexasBreeze]

Yeah they must be Marshawn Lynch/Seahawks fans!

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

General warming trend expected this week with little to no adverse weather.

After weeks of cold cloudy and rainy conditions, the next 4 days will feature mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. It will mainly be a temperatures forecast with high pressure overhead and a couple of weak frontal boundaries crossing the region. Coolest day will be today with highs in the upper 60’s. Lows the next few days will be in the 40’s and with dry air in place high temperatures will warm into the 70’s.

Stronger frontal system arrives Thursday afternoon and ends the nice weather…a reminder that we remain in winter. Highs will cool back into the 50’s for Friday and Saturday. As the colder air returns to the southern plains the large storm system off of Baja currently will potentially begin to make a slow eastward movement spreading moisture across TX with the cold air in place. Expect cloudy post frontal conditions with increasing rain chances Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures by next Sunday may not rise out of the 40’s with widespread showers. Current model progs suggest temperatures will remain above freezing and keep all precipitation liquid.

Historic Northeast US Blizzard:

Life threatening….historic…blizzard today-early Wednesday for the NE US.

A powerful upper level trough moving across the OH valley this morning will spawn surface low pressure off the NJ coast today. This surface low will deepen at an incredible rate (30mb in 24hrs surface pressures falling through the 980’s) as it moves ENE toward SE MA. Very heavy snowfall will develop this afternoon in the region from NYC to Boston with hourly snowfall rates nearing 3-4 inches. The storm system slows on Tuesday allowing heavy snow to be prolonged across the region. Storm totals of 2-3 feet appear likely from NYC to eastern Maine with the highest totals upwards of 4 ft near/NW of Boston. Model QPF continues to show a large area of 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid and using standard snow ratios yields 25-30 inches of snow for a large area.

Sustained winds of 45-55mph with gust to 80mph will be likely across the region resulting in extensive blowing and drifting. Snow drifts may approach 10-15 ft in areas of highest accumulation. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the coast from Long Island to north of Boston and this will result in white out conditions and extensive ground blizzard.

Very strong onshore flow will result in moderate to major storm surge flooding especially in and around Boston where ENE winds will funnel into the coast. Damaging waves on top of the storm surge flooding may result in damage to coastal structures. Prolonged period of blowing sea spray and temperatures in the mid 20’s will support crippling ice accumulations on structures near the coast. The offshore islands and Cape Cod will suffer with hours of near hurricane force winds.

Doubt any NE US airport will remain open past late this afternoon and virtually the entire region will be shut down Tuesday and possibly Wednesday with crippling impacts at New York City, Boston, and Harford. May not see normal airport operations returned to the hardest hit areas until late week which will have a significant impact on US aviation travel.

This blizzard will likely rival some of the greatest storm total snowfalls on record for the region.

[Paul Robison]

Do you see any thunderstorms amid the rain on Saturday/Sunday Srainhoutex? I just mean thunderstorms.

[jasons2k]

The NWS needs to change their forecast from "Sunny" to "Partly to Mostly Cloudy" instead....just sayin'

[srainhoutx]

The NWS needs to change their forecast from "Sunny" to "Partly to Mostly Cloudy" instead....just sayin'

Yep. High and mid level clouds are streaming ENE from the Eastern Pacific as well as up and over the Western Ridge in the NW flow aloft. At least we hit 70 here today. I'll take it...

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Very nice weather across TX for the next 2-3 days with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s/50’s under mainly sunny skies.

Main forecast focus will be on the weekend into early next week with the approach of a storm system off the Baja currently. Models are not/and have not been handling this system well with some showing a portion of this storm crossing the area Saturday night/Sunday and then the main body of the system ejecting across TX next week. This winter has featured slower storm ejections out of the SW US and the pattern continues to support this with the system mainly cut off from the polar jet stream aloft.

Will go with increasing clouds behind a cold front on Friday which will cool down our current warm spell. Rain chances increase Saturday and peak on Sunday as a short wave ejects across the cold air dome that will be in place across TX this weekend. Looking for a cloudy, cold, and wet Saturday afternoon and Sunday with temperatures in the 40’s with scattered areas of rain. Will likely see some changes in the forecast for the weekend into next week as the forecast models attempt to resolve this storm system.

NE US Blizzard:

Coastal New England being pummeled currently with a crippling blizzard.

Snowfall total already approaching 15-25 inches over the eastern portions of New England with an additional 10-20 inches likely (25 inches so far at Worcester, MA). Boston Harbor Buoy clearly shows the event in progress with N winds 45g 58 with 24 ft swells and ¼ mile in heavy snow and sea spray. Very strong NNE/NE winds this morning combined with the very high seas produced a fairly significant storm surge at the morning high tide on the E MA coast…with heavy coastal flooding observed at both Sandwich and Plymouth MA. Nantucket has been gusting over 60mph for over 8 straight hours (current ob is N at 55g67mph).

Worst location by far is at the summit of Mt. Washington, NH: Currently NE 79g87mph with 1/16 mile in heavy snow. Temp: 5F with wind chill of -29.

Coastal storm “Nor’easter” will continue to crawl slowly up the coast into coastal Maine today and tonight, but very heavy snow and near hurricane force wind gust will continue through much of RI, CT, MA, NH, and ME. High tide this afternoon will likely produce another round of coastal flooding with very strong winds resulting in extensive blowing and drifting. Travel impacts will continue to be felt across the nation with several airports closed and the 3 big NYC airports suffering long delays and cancellations. Will likely not have normal aviation service to the NE until this weekend depending on how long it takes to plow airport areas and keep them clear with ground blizzard conditions possible from strong winds well into Wednesday.

[wxman57]

Do you see any thunderstorms amid the rain on Saturday/Sunday Srainhoutex? I just mean thunderstorms.

I'm not seeing a big thunderstorm risk down here. Dynamics just aren't there. Little or no return flow ahead of the front. No tropical airmass in place pre-front.

[Katdaddy]

Another warm mostly sunny day and again tomorrow. High temps cool into the low to mid 60s for the weekend with rain and thunderstorm chances. A cloudy and rainy weekend on the way however temps will not be as cold as have been expected over the last few days. Early next week we will see some colder weather followed by another warmup into the upper 60s and 70s.

[snowman65]

Goodbye winter...See you next year

[redneckweather]

The winter that could have been. lol We had the PERFECT setup for getting winter weather this year but man, we just didn't have any cold to work with but abundant post frontal moisture. I think the lowest temperature I saw at my house so far this winter was 28 degrees and that was right at day break and didn't stay there long. That is fine with me and do not want to see a hard freeze since my Oleanders are looking awesome right now.

As we roll into February, signs of Spring will start to show themselves. The first thing will be the jasmine which will start to show any day now. Come on with it. I'm ready for the seasons to change.

[srainhoutx]

What a glorious string of weather during this late January 'thaw'. Temperatures were just shy of 80F yesterday here in NW Harris County. It was a perfect day to open the windows and I actually grilled yesterday evening without wearing a coat for a change. It appears that Thursday is a transition day into Friday as the SW Storm system wraps up, with clouds moving back in. Light rain appears likely on Saturday as we end the month of January 2015.