February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

By hour 132, the GFS suggests moisture across TX, but has the cold air lagging. Not a likely solution with a 1040+ high pressure near NE, IMO. We know that the models under estimate shallow cold air masses and how quickly they tend to move S. The short wave becomes elongated to our W and drops a lot of light precip across most of TX...

[cristina99]

I love cold weather!! Yea!!! Snow day!!! I wish I could bottle this up and take it out in August.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests the cold air will be around through next Friday, for what it's worth.

[harpman]

Srain, I don't mean to be a pain here, but what does this latest GFS run mean for my area? (New Orleans)

[srainhoutx]

Srain, I don't mean to be a pain here, but what does this latest GFS run mean for my area? (New Orleans)

We are colder here in TX via the GFS. We need to give this a day or two to settle down in model world regarding the finer details. I suggest our Louisiana neighbors pay close attention as well.

[harpman]

Thanks. The reason I ask is because what you guys get in Houston, we usually get a day later here, especially with winter weather.

[Andrew]

Srain, I don't mean to be a pain here, but what does this latest GFS run mean for my area? (New Orleans)

We are colder here in TX via the GFS. We need to give this a day or two to settle down in model world regarding the finer details. I suggest our Louisiana neighbors pay close attention as well.

The cold air doesn't sink nearly as far south as it should have with the 1040+ ridge. Gfs continues to have problems.

[srainhoutx]

Another interesting thing concerning the GFS. That model suggests the NW flow will remain in place for some time (Feb 9th +/- a couple of days).

[srainhoutx]

Early indications from the 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests a very chilly air mass will settle deep into TX...

01272011 12Z GEM hour 144 595_100.gif

01272011 12Z CMC f144.gif

01272011 12Z CMC f168.gif

[Andrew]

Early indications from the 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests a very chilly air mass will settle deep into TX...

01272011 12Z GEM hour 144 595_100.gif

01272011 12Z CMC f144.gif

Interesting to note the low in mexico

[weatherguy425]

Dang, -20 isotherm all the way down to OKC!

[srainhoutx]

Dang, -20 isotherm all the way down to OKC!

Look at 168. Yikes!

[weatherguy425]

Wouldn't that normally equate to surface temps in like, the lowers teens?

[wxman57]

One thing to note is that temps in western Canada have warmed considerably in the past 2 weeks. Most temps in central to southern BC and Alberta are into the 20s, 30s and even 40s currently. There is some cold air in northern BC and Alberta (-5 to -20F), and it is moving south as the high pressure builds.

I plotted a 12Z GFS meteogram and it has all precip ending here before 6pm Tuesday with temps in the 50s and 60s during the rain. Of course, all that depends on the position of the front. I do think that the front will be farther south than the GFS is forecasting next Tuesday. With energy hanging back, there could well be wintry precip across central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Wouldn't rule out anything here, there are just too many uncertainties.

Here's the meteogram from the 12Z GFS. It's just forecasting upper 20s for the coldest day (Friday). Again, I'm not inclined to believe the GFS temps yet:

[weatherguy425]

One thing to note is that temps in western Canada have warmed considerably in the past 2 weeks. Most temps in central to southern BC and Alberta are into the 20s, 30s and even 40s currently. There is some cold air in northern BC and Alberta (-5 to -20F), and it is moving south as the high pressure builds.

Where exactly will the source region be? It seems like over the past few days some of the runs have almost given a "back door" kind of appearence from northEASTERN Canada, is this just associated with the "hudson bay vortex"?

[ticka1]

Dang, -20 isotherm all the way down to OKC!

Look at 168. Yikes!

Come on don't leave us hanging - what does 168 hour show????

[Andrew]

Dang, -20 isotherm all the way down to OKC!

Look at 168. Yikes!

Come on don't leave us hanging - what does 168 hour show????

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_ ... ml#picture

[srainhoutx]

Dang, -20 isotherm all the way down to OKC!

Look at 168. Yikes!

Come on don't leave us hanging - what does 168 hour show????

I posted it in the Canadian output comment, but here it is again...

[sleetstorm]

Dang, -20 isotherm all the way down to OKC!

Look at 168. Yikes!

That is only one run though, yes?

[srainhoutx]

Early indications concerning the 12Z Euro suggest a suppressed Southern Storm. More in a bit.