2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[weatherguy425]

If that system sits in the GOM for several days next week, it seems to me with those water temps, it will get stronger. The question is, just how strong could it get?

It will be moving at a fairly quick clip, thankfully.

[Stratton20]

Hopefully this becomes at least an organized depression, ill take a few rain bands please

[weatherguy425]

Hopefully this becomes at least an organized depression, a weak wave like what the GFS is showing isnt going to cut it

Unless it does go further south. Haha. Takes a while to get into a drought and it often takes a bit to get out. I think we all have to keep that in-mind as well. Pattern for rain going forward (next 30-days) is certainly better than the last 30 days. That's a start.

[Cpv17]

If that system sits in the GOM for several days next week, it seems to me with those water temps, it will get stronger. The question is, just how strong could it get?

I don’t think it’ll get very strong even though it’ll be going through some very warm waters. Too much dry air out there but still you can never count anything out.

[Stratton20]

Now this is just an early prediction on what i think the ceiling is for this system, I think a weak Cat 1 isnt impossible with this, and its floor would be obviously an open wave

[sambucol]

Now this is just an early prediction on what i think the ceiling is for this system, I think a weak Cat 1 isnt impossible with this, and its floor would be obviously an open wave

I agree

[don]

Here's the end of the 18Z ICON (BTW the ICON can sometimes do a good job at sniffing out Homebrew TC genesis.)

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png

[Scott747]

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.

Where site are you using? Hard to find a view large enough to include the Gulf, etc. on tidbits.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/index.php

Large scale atmosphere products.

[Stratton20]

GFS still an open wave

[weatherguy425]

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.

Where site are you using? Hard to find a view large enough to include the Gulf, etc. on tidbits.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/index.php

Large scale atmosphere products.

Thanks! Just noticed weatherbell also has expanded view options.

[weatherguy425]

GFS still an open wave

Funny that this particular run does try to slow it down and wrap it up just a bit as it approaches the coast.

[Stratton20]

It will be interesting to see what the hurricane models show once this becomes an invest

[sambucol]

It will be interesting to see what the hurricane models show once this becomes an invest

Yes. Wonder when that will happen.

[srainhoutx]

It will be interesting to see what the hurricane models show once this becomes an invest

Yes. Wonder when that will happen.

My hunch is Friday or Saturday an INVEST will be designated...

[sambucol]

Stratton are you posting the models tonight?

[Stratton20]

sambucol i think the whole group will be , but ill try to post a few, i am pretty interested to see what the overnight models have to show

[Stratton20]

Also this might be a really dumb question but I am the only one who actually gets kind of excited to see the next model runs when it comes to a tropical system? Now obviously I dont ever wish for anyone to get hit, but i always get a sense of excitement because yoy dont know what the next model runs gonna show

[Cpv17]

Also this might be a really dumb question but I am the only one who actually gets kind of excited to see the next model runs when it comes to a tropical system? Now obviously I dont ever wish for anyone to get hit, but i always get a sense of excitement because yoy dont know what the next model runs gonna show

You’re definitely not the only one.

[sambucol]

me

[Stormlover2020]

It’s the biggest rush ever!!’ Bring on a cane