March 2022

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum wow thats definitely setting off some alarm bells hearing that

[tireman4]

This worries me...

At midday, a closed upper trough continues to pivot eastward,
centered over southern New Mexico and nearby far northern Mexico,
with the exit region of a strong mid/upper-level jet (90+ kt at 500
mb) beginning to overspread central/east Texas. Cloud cover remains
rather persistent at midday within the warm sector, but this
sheltering/inhibited mixing is a contributing factor to the quick
north/northwestward advection of a moist air mass (70F surface
dewpoints) that is already becoming increasing well-established
across south-central/southeast Texas.

[Cpv17]

This worries me...

At midday, a closed upper trough continues to pivot eastward,
centered over southern New Mexico and nearby far northern Mexico,
with the exit region of a strong mid/upper-level jet (90+ kt at 500
mb) beginning to overspread central/east Texas. Cloud cover remains
rather persistent at midday within the warm sector, but this
sheltering/inhibited mixing is a contributing factor to the quick
north/northwestward advection of a moist air mass (70F surface
dewpoints) that is already becoming increasing well-established
across south-central/southeast Texas.

The dew point here in Wharton has been stuck at 69° for the past few hours. I haven’t seen any readings yet of dew points in the 70’s but I suppose it’s possible later this afternoon/evening. It’s already knocking on that door.

[Cromagnum]

Radar starting to light up just west of B/CS

[Andrew]

Radar starting to light up just west of B/CS

That stuff is still junk precip from onshore flow and not so much surface based. If anything it could help to stabilize the area a little (something to continue to monitor). The surface trough/cold front is still west of 35. That is where we will need to watch

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings this afternoon for a few hours, but
ceilings should return back to IFR by 00Z. A low level jet is
mixing down to the surface and causing wind gusts near 30 to 35kts
across southeast Texas. These wind gusts will persist during the
overnight hours and could lead to some LLWS at around 13-15 kft.
VCTS for most of this afternoon will transition to prevailing
TSRA during the overnight hours as front moves through. Expect
stronger and variable winds with these storms. Expect other severe
weather hazards with these storms during the overnight hours such
as hail, blinding downpours, lightning, and a few isolated
tornadoes. Front will push out of CLL and UTS first a few hours
after sunrise and push off the coast by mid morning tomorrow.
Ceilings will quickly lift to VFR after the frontal passage, but
winds will become NW at around 15kts.

Lenninger

[Cromagnum]

Severe tstorm watches hoisted in around Abilene and Cisco. Too bad Eastland couldn't get this rain a few days ago.

[Iceresistance]

From S2K

CAPE is higher than expected, approaching 2,500 J/kg in Southern Texas compared to just over 2,000 J/kg.
Supercell Composite is ridiculous, the RAP model (The one they use for the Mesoanalysis on some of the thermodynamics, the HRRR is used for radar) expected a SCP of 16 in parts of Southern/SE Texas, it's at 20 just to the NW of Corpus Christi

You found my post there, Lol

[MH5]

18Z HRRR looks concerning in terms of slow moving / training storms & precip in and around the Houston metro overnight with some embedded nastier looking storms. Something to monitor.

[Andrew]

CLL special sounding:

[tireman4]

CLL special sounding:

Yikes...just doggone Yikes..

[Cromagnum]

Translation for those of us who don't know how to read that?

[Iceresistance]

CLL special sounding:

Not something you see very often from SE Texas.

(Also, you beat me to it. )

[tireman4]

SPC Discussion 2:24 PM

[Iceresistance]

Translation for those of us who don't know how to read that?

The sounding is indicating a very favorable environment for Tornadoes across SE Texas.

[tireman4]

Translation for those of us who don't know how to read that?

Chances of the storms becoming severe and tornadic are quite high....

[Cromagnum]

Translation for those of us who don't know how to read that?

Chances of the storms becoming severe and tornadic are quite high....

I get that, but what was different in particular from this special sounding that differed from one's from last few days?

[Iceresistance]

2nd check at the SPC Mesoanalysis, CAPE is higher than expected across most of Texas, up to 3000 J/kg in Far Southern Texas

Bulk Shear is higher in South-Central & Southern Texas, up to 75 knots at it's peak.

Supercell Composite is the same value (16) compared to the expected one, but it's more spread out.

The SHIP is also more favorable for Dangerously large hail, up to 3 inches of Hail instead of 2-2.5 inches from the RAP (NOTE: Not the forecasted Hail Size, it's the instability that is capable of producing Hail up to a certain size)

(First posted on S2K)

[ducoop]

Translation for those of us who don't know how to read that?

I was thinking the same thing.

[Andrew]

Translation for those of us who don't know how to read that?

A lot of low and mid-level shear that is more often seen across the Central and Southern Plains. IF convection forms it could get dangerous quickly. Interesting to note though I was comparing the sounding to the HRRR and the HRRR indicates some warm air advection between 800-700mb which could create an inversion later this afternoon. So that could limit potential some.