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Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:35 am
by DoctorMu
UKMet:
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:37 am
by DoctorMu
don wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:26 am
Please stop....The main Globals models (GFS,EURO) are not the only models that meteorologist and the NWS use. In fact more weight is typically put in the mesoscale models once you get within 48 hours or less.I'm not saying at all that we are going to have winter storm impacts here.I've only been saying to stay weather aware as things are not set in stone.Ive been saying the same thing for several days now, we need to watch the cutoff low sitting to our west later this week.As we will have cold air already established over the area.With the Subtropical jet overhead.
It's true, it won't be last year. We had 2 nights of record 5°F lows in a row!
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:46 am
by djmike
And Beaumont stays high and dry…
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:57 am
by mcheer23
12z CMC........
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:58 am
by Kingwood36
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:57 am
12z CMC........
Only thing that is good fir is me not having to drive to work lol
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:01 am
by don
Yep the 12Z Canadian now shows the disturbance also, looks like the ICON and RGEM now....
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:07 am
by jasons2k
If it's below freezing, even freezing drizzle can cause a big mess. We used to see it almost every winter up in the DFW region...I-20 was the "Ice Belt"....now it's a novelty.
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:12 am
by don
12Z UKMET also showing the system Thurday night/Friday morning.(Keep in mind what it shows as snow accumulation may actually be sleet/freezing rain.)
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:13 am
by Stratton20
Its crazy how just a few days ago, models were saying nothing but cold rain here, amazing how fast that can change
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:15 am
by Kingwood36
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:13 am
Its crazy how just a few days ago, models were saying nothing but cold rain here, amazing how fast that can change
That's what's so cool about weather..it's all an educated guess till u get within 3 days then it all starts to come in to picture
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:28 am
by Stormlover2020
Still have plenty of time !!
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:16 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:13 am
Its crazy how just a few days ago, models were saying nothing but cold rain here, amazing how fast that can change
Actually if you go back to last week Don was posting maps of the Euro that looked a lot similar to what some of the models are showing now.
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:19 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 true point, hopefully we soon get agreement on whats going to take place here thursday, maybe some winter weather advisories needed?
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:34 pm
by sau27
I still think Friday morning is our best shot at anything frozen. The GEFS has about half the members showing something now.
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:39 pm
by don
sau27 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:34 pm
I still think Friday morning is our best shot at anything frozen. The GEFS has about half the members showing something now.
Yep that's the disturbance we're referring to.Some models have it coming in earlier or later than others though.The main window for us looks to be sometime Thursday night-Friday morning.
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:45 pm
by mcheer23
EURO nudged the Freezing Rain a little more into the area, and also has lingering moisture near the coast.
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:49 pm
by don
The NBM(important model blend that the NWS uses) is also starting to show ice along the coast.
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:06 pm
by Stratton20
Wow, hoping for more sleet than ice if it happens
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:19 pm
by djmike
Seems Jefferson county aint got time for that. Lol. Determined not to give me anything in Beaumont. Lol
Re: February 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:25 pm
by Stratton20
djmike trust me you should be happy its not showing anything in your area, this would be a mostly ice event
