Winter Long Range Discussion

[Cpv17]

Some interesting history here:

https://www.weather.gov/maf/The_Coldest_Night_in_Texas

[Iceresistance]

Watch the 12z GEFS at your own risk.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance what does it show

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance what does it show

Crazy Ensemble Member Snowfall & Mean Snowfall, but the Run is not done yet.

The fun on the GEFS really begins on February 1st.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has something potentially big at the end of the run, & it's coming this way (More info on S2K)

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yup has a deep trough digging into the southwest, too bad its fantasyland because that would definitely be something interesting to watch

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance yup has a deep trough digging into the southwest, too bad its fantasyland because that would definitely be something interesting to watch

Unless it develops consistency

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance we will see, their is alot of cold air behind that trough on that particular run, for now just something to casually watch

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS WOW! (More info. on S2K)

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period

[Cpv17]

Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period

Yeah that looks to be headed out west. Not down the central part of the country.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 Yep, hope the ridge doesn’t make a return, that would be a blowtorch pattern, good thing this is 16 days out so it’s definitely gonna change

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period

Nooooo, not the SE Ridge!

[Stratton20]

00z GFS has moved up this potential dip in the jet from hour 384 to hour 312, when a model moves up something by a few days that’s something to definitely watch

[Iceresistance]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS sniffing out maybe another shot at wintry mischief late next weekend? Seems to be the next Sunday timeframe

[Cpv17]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

Because it’s probably not coming here lol

[Iceresistance]

With the MJO out of action right now, it's really messing up the models, making forecasts over 5 days out very diffcult.

[Stratton20]

The only good news I can see say right now is the 12z GEFS heading into the first week of february is trending cooler than normal conditions for the central US

[Cpv17]

I actually don’t really think the models look all that bad. I see a lot of average or below average temps for the next couple weeks.