September 2020:

[Scott747]

12z HWRF goes in around Houma at hr 93 as a moderate TS.

[Scott747]

50/70 on the latest TWO. Quite an increase in 12 hrs...

[Scott747]

12z Euro thru hr 72 is further n with a stretched out vorticity.

[weatherguy425]

12z HWRF goes in around Houma at hr 93 as a moderate TS.

A bit further west-west of Vermilion Bay. This one is certainly one to watch… Almost Frances ‘98 - esque In some ways.

[Scott747]

12z Euro at hr 144 looks very similar to the Ukie. Weak TS moving roughly wnw/nw between La Pesca and Matamoros.

[Kingwood36]

So basicaly from la to Mexico should keep an eye put

[Scott747]

Instead of making landfall, hr 168 on the Euro ends up moving n offshore se of Matamoros.

[Scott747]

12z Euro moves slowly away from the lower Texas coast before quickly ejecting ne towards central la.

[cperk]

Euro at hour 240 takes 90L to central Louisiana yesterday it buried it in Mexico.

[Cpv17]

From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

[Stormlover2020]

Lol u meant Mexico to la

[cperk]

From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...
No real surprises with the 18z TAF package. VFR conditions should
mostly prevail with exceptions being in any isolated stronger
cells that manage to develop later this afternoon (some of which
could produce gusty winds). Precip should mostly taper off this
evening with the loss of heating, though some activity may linger
overnight to our west as weak upper disturbances edge closer. On
Thursday, though available moisture is a touch reduced, large
scale lift increases somewhat and there is considerable uncertainty
in regards to the amount of daytime precip redevelops once temps
climb into the upper 80s. Some guidance shows more than others.
Think scattered activity north and west of the Highway 59-Interstate
69 corridor & maybe a bit less further southeast looks a
reasonable start. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 86 68 86 / 20 20 50 40 20
Houston (IAH) 95 76 91 73 90 / 30 30 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 78 88 / 20 30 40 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[AtascocitaWX]

Could be like Frances (1998)

[Cpv17]

From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

[Stormlover2020]

Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.

[Texaspirate11]

Wouldn't the dry air behind this so called cold front shunt this storm away from us??

[TexasBreeze]

Modeling has been rough this year missing all sorts of storms and intensity issues.
LA or MX would be fitting considering the pattern so far. Expect a sharp gradient in precip too.

[DoctorMu]

From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

Now that's a cone!

[cperk]

From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.