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Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:53 am
by jasons2k
Well this is bad news for most of us wanting some rain:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1017 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Radar mosaics show a cluster of storms over the western Gulf.
Radar imagery shows some rotation to the radar echoes over the
Gulf and a weak area of low pressure looks like it`s trying to
form. This complicates the forecast a bit as this may create a bit
of subsidence on the west side and PoPs might a bit overdone. PW values over SE TX remain between 2.1 and 2.3 inches with
convective temperatures in the mid 80`s coast to lower 90`s
inland. Extensive cloud cover is retarding heating so not sure
when/if convective temperatures will be met. Current thinking is
that some breaks in the cloud cover will develop between 11 AM and 1 PM and there should be some heating to initiate convection
later this afternoon. Tweaked temperatures a touch cooler but left PoPs alone for now. Will watch radar trends and another update might be required if convection fails to develop. 43
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:57 am
by Rip76
Yeah.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:12 am
by djmike
Nothing exciting here in Beaumont either. Sun is shining. Looks like most of the convection will stay in the gulf and up towards LA. Unless daytime heating triggers something, doesn’t look like us either will get much of anything.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:51 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
College Football is here! The unofficial beginning of Fall!
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:00 pm
by Scott747
12z GFS continues to show the now declared 90l making a loop and moving back w towards the upper tx coast. Latest run keeps it just inland across la which impedes development.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:04 pm
by Rip76
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:00 pm
12z GFS continues to show the now declared 90l making a loop and moving back w towards the upper tx coast. Latest run keeps it just inland across la which impedes development.
Can’t view the loop.
Moving West today?
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:36 pm
by Scott747
Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:04 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:00 pm
12z GFS continues to show the now declared 90l making a loop and moving back w towards the upper tx coast. Latest run keeps it just inland across la which impedes development.
Can’t view the loop.
Moving West today?
No. The energy/vorticity associated with 90l moves along the ngom states and then dips s across fla before then moving back w late next week. Euro has showed similar solutions so it's not quite implausible.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:36 pm
by Cpv17
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:49 am
Gotta keep an eye on TD5. The NHC went bullish on it and could be a Carib cruiser if it doesn't ride the big islands on its trek west.
This is very surprising. The conditions in the Caribbean are hostile and not conducive for development. I expect the NHC to cut back on intensity in future updates.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:39 pm
by Rip76
Couple of storms crankin’ up.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:18 pm
by Belmer
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:36 pm
This is very surprising. The conditions in the Caribbean are hostile and not conducive for development. I expect the NHC to cut back on intensity in future updates.
Which forecast are you looking at to come up with that? I think TD5 would have an overall decent shot surviving in the Caribbean if it can make it past 70-75W. However, it would have to get its act together a bit more than it currently is for it to do so. A small storm like this can often create its own environment even with some mid shear. The projected shear forecast would be sustainable in my opinion if it can remain over water. The expected TUTT would give it a challenge early on, but eventually could help aid in ventilation as it treks westward. Though the GFS on its 06z and 12z cycle has it moving over Dominican Republic and Haiti where it will get shredded.
If TD5 can make it past ~70W and not go over any mountainous terrain, this could potentially be a much more significant storm. You're just not seeing that much in the models because of it taking it over the islands. I will say I was a bit surprised to see the NHC go with an initial Cat 1 heading into the Caribbean. Maybe more of a mid/strong Tropical Storm?
It also looks like the Labor Day cold front isn't quite as hopeful as what was expected a few days ago. Can't say that's a shocker when you look at climo. Because of this, TD5 could end up going more westward into the western Caribbean due to Bermuda ridge building in after trough passes.
Lot to watch in the coming days. Guess the Atlantic looked at the calendar and decided to wake up when it saw it was almost September.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:35 pm
by Cpv17
Belmer wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:18 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:36 pm
This is very surprising. The conditions in the Caribbean are hostile and not conducive for development. I expect the NHC to cut back on intensity in future updates.
Which forecast are you looking at to come up with that? I think TD5 would have an overall decent shot surviving in the Caribbean if it can make it past 70-75W. However, it would have to get its act together a bit more than it currently is for it to do so. A small storm like this can often create its own environment even with some mid shear. The projected shear forecast would be sustainable in my opinion if it can remain over water. The expected TUTT would give it a challenge early on, but eventually could help aid in ventilation as it treks westward. Though the GFS on its 06z and 12z cycle has it moving over Dominican Republic and Haiti where it will get shredded.
If TD5 can make it past ~70W and not go over any mountainous terrain, this could potentially be a much more significant storm. You're just not seeing that much in the models because of it taking it over the islands. I will say I was a bit surprised to see the NHC go with an initial Cat 1 heading into the Caribbean. Maybe more of a mid/strong Tropical Storm?
It also looks like the Labor Day cold front isn't quite as hopeful as what was expected a few days ago. Can't say that's a shocker when you look at climo. Because of this, TD5 could end up going more westward into the western Caribbean due to Bermuda ridge building in after trough passes.
Lot to watch in the coming days. Guess the Atlantic looked at the calendar and decided to wake up when it saw it was almost September.
Well I said that cuz the models (GFS/Euro) have had it weakening as soon as it enters the Caribbean before it even makes contact with any mountainous islands. Stewart is usually an aggressive forecaster for the NHC though.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:45 pm
by Belmer
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:36 pm
Well I said that cuz the models (GFS/Euro) have had it weakening as soon as it enters the Caribbean before it even makes contact with any mountainous islands. Stewart is usually an aggressive forecaster for the NHC though.
Well the Euro hasn't exactly been precise this year so to speak when it comes to the tropics. It didn't even pick up on TD5 until NHC gave it an invest. Between this being a small storm, dry air to its north, current easterly shear and uncertainty in track past the Lesser Antilles... models will likely continue to struggle with this system.
Speaking of the Euro... should be running now.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:17 pm
by Scott747
90l or the ghost of 90l is more of a potential issue than td 5.
Euro and GFS are becoming more consistent with it. Still no real organization on both models but the potential is there.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:36 pm
by Kingwood36
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:17 pm
90l or the ghost of 90l is more of a potential issue than td 5.
Euro and GFS are becoming more consistent with it. Still no real organization on both models but the potential is there.
Didnt 90L become td5?
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:11 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:36 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:17 pm
90l or the ghost of 90l is more of a potential issue than td 5.
Euro and GFS are becoming more consistent with it. Still no real organization on both models but the potential is there.
Didnt 90L become td5?
No, that was 99L that became td5. 90L is the invest that’s in the NW Gulf.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:19 pm
by jasons2k
Just not seeing much on the radar
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:30 pm
by Cpv17
jasons wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:19 pm
Just not seeing much on the radar
And don’t expect to see much either over the next couple weeks. Rain chances look slim especially after tomorrow. Only hope we have for rain is to get something tropical in here. Models are starting to be less bullish on that front too which honestly I expected.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:42 pm
by jasons2k
I think August may have replaced January as my least favorite month of the year. At least it still rains in the winter time. Maybe I should move to Maui.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:49 pm
by djmike
Funny you mention maui. Ill be there next week. The weather there? Beyond beautiful year round. As far as today in Beaumont, we are right along with you. We had a small shower this morning and sun has been shining since 10am. I have a feeling thats all she wrote for moisture for setx as she moves inland NE today and tomorrow. Jmo.
Re: August 2019: Weekend Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:03 pm
by Cromagnum
It's just miserably hot and humid. Hoping for a winter that fires up early and doesn't let up until next May.