February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Mr. T]

Also, this run actually gives us a better chance at accumulating snow than Austin or San Antonio

[Rich]

Rich wrote:
Candy Cane, After looking at tonight's 00Z runs do you think chance for wintry precipitation here in the houston area is looking more likely?

Just looking at it, and I'm by no means a "seasoned" weather guy, I think this is the best setup for snow in Houston since December 4th. 850 temps are going to be plenty cold enough. They will be roughly -4. I think surface temperatures will wreak havoc with the precip at the beginning, but personally believe that the liquid will change over to snow before the event closes out. Since temperatures will be just cold enough, our snow ratio will be 1:5 or 1:10 at most. It'll be very, very heavy wet snow--aka, GIANT flakes when they begin to fall. It was reported by the chief in College Station last week that the snowflakes were as large as grapefruits and made a plopping sound when they hit the ground.


I like the sound of that Thanks for taking the time to give me your opinion! If this were to verify, there would be a lot of happy campers on the forum...including myself!

[sleetstorm]

Candy Cane, please translate what 1:5 and 1:10 means as far as for the type of snowflakes.

[Mr. T]

Candy Cane, please translate what 1:5 and 1:10 means as far as for the type of snowflakes.

Heavy, wet, "gloppy" big snowflakes. The best kind to make snowballs with.

With the forecasted upper air temps, ratios would likely be around 10:1.

[don]

Candy Cane, please translate what 1:5 and 1:10 means as far as for the type of snowflakes.

1:5 means for every inch of liquid precipitation is equivalent to about 5 inches of snow. And for 1:10 ratios means for every 1 inch of liquid theres about 10 inches of snow.

[Mr. T]

HGX predictions in the morning:

They will continue to ignore the trends of wintry precip in SE TX, as the forecaster on duty will be late for his tee time. A three sentence discussion will then be written, and the same absolutely ridiculous forecast of highs in the 50s next week will stick.

[Ptarmigan]

I am beginning to think that snow is possible on Tuesday. I have see snow where the temperature was above 32.

[Kludge]

Just checked 12Z GFS sounding forecasts for IAH. The model suggests cold rain changing to a mixture of rain and sleet as the precip ends Tuesday night. With that pattern, I couldn't rule out a few snowflakes but I don't see a snow "event" for Houston given the latest data.

If a Weather Expert logs onto a Weather Forum, visited almost exclusively by those hoping to see exceptional weather, and consistently advises that there will be no exceptional weather, shouldn't that Expert anticipate that the Forum will soon cease to be visited?

And when the Expert's "advice" does... or does not... become reality, will anyone still be there to advise? Before long, the Expert will soon have no place onto which he can throw a wet blanket.

If i were a commercial advertiser on the forum I would probably pay Portastorm to make hourly posts....

Point is: we can all find reasons for why it won't snow in Houston everywhere we look. Most of us come to this board to find reasons why it may snow. I submit that "Expert" interjection is only welcomed when the signs are good...else this forum will be moot.

Moral: Experts..... play along. We know snow's unlikely here. Duh. Humor us. Don't piss on our cornflakes. Chime-in when happiness might become reality. Otherwise... lurk. We know your're there.... and respect your silence.

PS: Ed Mahmoud: TMI on the cholesterol check, buddy...

[Mr. T]

I am beginning to think that snow is possible on Tuesday. I have see snow where the temperature was above 32.

During the last snow event, the temperature never reached 32 until the snow moved away, and the snow accumulated without trouble. Surface temperature do not have to be at freezing if the precip is heavy enough.

I'm not worried about surface temperatures right now. It looks like the height of this event will occur after sunset tuesday. That is perfect timing! I'd be more worried about the GFS overdoing the amount of cold air in the upper levels. We shall see. There is still a lot that can change in the Pacific, too.

This still isn't a slam dunk, yet...

[Ptarmigan]

During the last snow event, the temperature never reached 32 until the snow moved away, and the snow accumulated without trouble. Surface temperature do not have to be at freezing if the precip is heavy enough.

I'm not worried about surface temperatures right now. It looks like the height of this event will occur after sunset tuesday. That is perfect timing! I'd be more worried about the GFS overdoing the amount of cold air in the upper levels. We shall see. There is still a lot that can change in the Pacific, too.

This still isn't a slam dunk, yet...

Most snowfall in Houston happens in the late afternoon to nighttime. When I go out during a snow, it is not really that cold. Usually, after the snow, it is cold. I know in the 1973 snow events, the highs were in the 40s to 50s prior to the snow.

[sleetstorm]

Candy Cane, please translate what 1:5 and 1:10 means as far as for the type of snowflakes.

Heavy, wet, "gloppy" big snowflakes. The best kind to make snowballs with.

With the forecasted upper air temps, ratios would likely be around 10:1.

That would be very terrific get here in all of southeast Texas if it does in fact materialize, which I pray that it does. don just informed me that snowflakes with a ratio of 1:5 is equivalent to five inches of snow and that snowflakes with a ratio of 1:10 is equivalent to ten inches of snow how many inches of snow would snow with ratio of 10:1 allot, lay down?

[Ptarmigan]

Heavy, wet, "gloppy" big snowflakes. The best kind to make snowballs with.

With the forecasted upper air temps, ratios would likely be around 10:1.

That would be very terrific get here in all of southeast Texas if it does in fact materialize, which I pray that it does. don just informed me that snowflakes with a ratio of 1:5 is equivalent to five inches of snow and that snowflakes with a ratio of 1:10 is equivalent to ten inches of snow how many inches of snow would snow with ratio of 10:1 allot, lay down?

The average ratio of snow to rain in Houston is 7:1.

[Kludge]

HGX predictions in the morning:

They will continue to ignore the trends of wintry precip in SE TX, as the forecaster on duty will be late for his tee time. A three sentence discussion will then be written, and the same absolutely ridiculous forecast of highs in the 50s next week will stick.

I would actually be delighted to know that these individuals had the dexterity and focus to tee off on a golf course.

Sadly, if we could go down to the HGX office on any given evening at this time, I'm afraid we would find individuals that are unable to 'predict' when the summer solstice will occur. I sincerely feel for those folks. There is no motivation for going out on a limb and really predicting weather multiple days in advance. If they're right = that's what they get paid (minimally) for. If they're wrong = that's why they get paid minimally for. So they rightfully take the safe route.

Did you see the one yesterday,that said, I kid you not, "your guess is as good as mine" ...?! My boss would stomp a mudhole in me for such a statement.

The forecasters that are paid by commercial interests should be listened to. Including WxMan57.

Watch this board, and use your gut feel. You have just as good a chance at calling the correct shot.

[Kludge]

Just checked 12Z GFS sounding forecasts for IAH. The model suggests cold rain changing to a mixture of rain and sleet as the precip ends Tuesday night. With that pattern, I couldn't rule out a few snowflakes but I don't see a snow "event" for Houston given the latest data.

If a Weather Expert logs onto a Weather Forum, visited almost exclusively by those hoping to see exceptional weather, and consistently advises that there will be no exceptional weather, shouldn't that Expert anticipate that the Forum will soon cease to be visited?

And when the Expert's "advice" does... or does not... become reality, will anyone still be there to advise? Before long, the Expert will soon have no place onto which he can throw a wet blanket.

If i were a commercial adveriser on the forum I would probably pay Portastorm to make hourly posts....

Point is: we can all find reasons for why it won't snow in Houston everywhere we look. Most of us come to this board to find reasons why it may snow. I submit that "Expert" interjection is only welcomed when the signs are good...else this forum will be moot.

Moral: Experts..... play along. We know snow's unlikely here. Duh. Humor us. Don't piss on our cornflakes. Chime-in when happiness might become reality. Otherwise... lurk. We know your're there.... and respect your silence.

PS: Ed Mahmoud: TMI on the cholesterol check, buddy...

[Kludge]

HGX predictions in the morning:

They will continue to ignore the trends of wintry precip in SE TX, as the forecaster on duty will be late for his tee time. A three sentence discussion will then be written, and the same absolutely ridiculous forecast of highs in the 50s next week will stick.

I would actually be delighted to know that these individuals had the dexterity and focus to tee off on a golf course.

Sadly, if we could go down to the HGX office on any given evening at this time, I'm afraid we would find individuals that are unable to 'predict' when the summer solstice will occur. I sincerely feel for those folks. There is no motivation for going out on a limb and really predicting weather multiple days in advance. If they're right = that's what they get paid (minimally) for. If they're wrong = that's why they get paid minimally for. So they rightfully take the safe route.

Did you see the one yesterday,that said, I kid you not, "your guess is as good as mine" ...?! My boss would stomp a mudhole in me for such a statement.

The forecasters that are paid by commercial interests should be listened to. Including WxMan57.

Watch this board, and use your gut feel. You have just as good a chance at calling the correct shot.

[Mr. T]

I would actually be delighted to know that these individuals had the dexterity and focus to tee off on a golf course.

Sadly, if we could go down to the HGX office on any given evening at this time, I'm afraid we would find individuals that are unable to 'predict' when the summer solstice will occur. I sincerely feel for those folks. There is no motivation for going out on a limb and really predicting weather multiple days in advance. If they're right = that's what they get paid (minimally) for. If they're wrong = that's why they get paid minimally for. So they rightfully take the safe route.

Did you see the one yesterday,that said, I kid you not, "your guess is as good as mine" ...?! My boss would stomp a mudhole in me for such a statement.

The forecasters that are paid by commercial interests should be listened to. Including WxMan57.

Watch this board, and use your gut feel. You have just as good a chance at calling the correct shot.

I just see so much more passion and feeling in the way surrounding offices sound when making their forecasts, it makes me wish the folks at HGX could sometimes put a little "umph" into it. When an AFD comes out and it is only about five sentences long with the words "your guess is as good as mine", it comes across as an individual who could care less and doesn't feel the need to forecast. Even though, you know, that is his job.

This is obviously a tough forecast to make, but standing still and doing nothing but keeping an old forecast in place with numbers above all guidance, even the warmer Euro, shows how stubborn HGX really is. I mean, c'mon. Is the temperature in Harris County really not going to fall below 40 next week? Really? Really HGX? I'll join the Hannah Montana dance party if that happens... Even if it doesn't snow tuesday or wednesday, which is certainly a possibility, high temperatures will not reach 50 degrees tuesday and wednesday, and lows will certainly fall into the 30s. This is a very cold airmass coming down next week regardless if it snows or not. We likely have another round of freezing lows coming up next week.

Here's the forecast for Brazos County for tuesday from HGX:
Tuesday...Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 50s.

And now, the forecast for Robertson County, one county north of Brazos, in the NWS FWD territory:
Tuesday...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Colder. Highs in the upper 30s.


Nothing else needs to be said.

[wxdata]

GFS 0z less sure of snow deep in SE TX

[biggerbyte]

HGX predictions in the morning:

They will continue to ignore the trends of wintry precip in SE TX, as the forecaster on duty will be late for his tee time. A three sentence discussion will then be written, and the same absolutely ridiculous forecast of highs in the 50s next week will stick.

I would actually be delighted to know that these individuals had the dexterity and focus to tee off on a golf course.

Sadly, if we could go down to the HGX office on any given evening at this time, I'm afraid we would find individuals that are unable to 'predict' when the summer solstice will occur. I sincerely feel for those folks. There is no motivation for going out on a limb and really predicting weather multiple days in advance. If they're right = that's what they get paid (minimally) for. If they're wrong = that's why they get paid minimally for. So they rightfully take the safe route.

Did you see the one yesterday,that said, I kid you not, "your guess is as good as mine" ...?! My boss would stomp a mudhole in me for such a statement.

The forecasters that are paid by commercial interests should be listened to. Including WxMan57.

Watch this board, and use your gut feel. You have just as good a chance at calling the correct shot.

We are not here to do anything but discuss the facts. Everyone analysis the data and either gives thier opinion, or explains the contents of said data. No one is going to do as you suggest. I believe the terms are, "blowing smoke", "say what you want to hear", etc.. As a matter of fact, we frown upon anyone who does what you speak as a ratings booster for the television network.

I totaly disagree that any of the visitors to this forum want anything but the facts. It does no good to irresponsibly get someones hopes up.

[weatherguy425]

HGX has added in rain/snow for Tuesday night.

[Mr. T]

HGX has added in rain/snow for Tuesday night.

Wow! I can't believe it! I guess I was wrong

The 6z GFS is as good as ever for snow in Houston, FWIW




The 0z Euro also came in wetter and colder for Houston, though still not as cold as the GFS, but trending in that direction.