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I want to break the February 1895 record for snowfall. I’m greedy. Excited for January.

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FXUS64 KHGX 181820
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.DISCUSSION [18Z AVIATION]...

Dense fog prevailed across much of SE Texas this morning and is now
fading off. Early this morning, most sites were at 1/4SM VV002 and
prevailed through around 17Z. vis/cigs are finally transitioning
to VFR. Today, a warm air advection pattern with winds shifting
more southerly, which will help enhance moisture transport, can be
expected. By tonight, SHRA activity is expected to affect most -if
not all- TAF sites through Wednesday as an upper level trough
approaches from the NE. A few isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out,
thus, VCTS could be added during the 06-15Z period in the upcoming
TAF issuances, but confidence remains low. At the moment, PROB30
are in place for most TAF sites for possible IFR vis/cigs due to a
mix of -RA/BR tonight.

&&

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:26 pm I want to break the February 1895 record for snowfall. I’m greedy. Excited for January.

You are setting yourself up for disappointment with those expectations.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:26 pm I want to break the February 1895 record for snowfall. I’m greedy. Excited for January.

eeeeaasssy....lol.....baby steps....after what we have seen so far I'll take what we can get...

What is interesting is to see the ridging build in the models over Alaska and the troph over the Southeast....blocking sets in and Bang!....it goes to deep freeze mode!

Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:41 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:26 pm I want to break the February 1895 record for snowfall. I’m greedy. Excited for January.

You are setting yourself up for disappointment with those expectations.

I didn’t say I was expecting it.

I think Jan and Feb are avg 5-7 degrees below normal with above norm precip?

Latest GFS went back to mild. Flip a coin. It had started to pick up the coming cold around Jan. 1st or so in the last few runs, but it's gone on the latest run. *beating head against wall*

harp wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:54 pm Latest GFS went back to mild. Flip a coin. It had started to pick up the coming cold around Jan. 1st or so in the last few runs, but it's gone on the latest run. *beating head against wall*

that's how it does....comes and goes...if it's more than 6 days out I quit paying attention...lol

harp wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:54 pm Latest GFS went back to mild. Flip a coin. It had started to pick up the coming cold around Jan. 1st or so in the last few runs, but it's gone on the latest run. *beating head against wall*

Don’t look at the temp output, look at the 500mb map.

And I wouldn’t call it mild once we get to next weekend. It’s still below avg. if you watch op run to op run you are going to not enjoy the buildup.

FV3 is still very chilly.

This is why I participate in this forum. Always like to get info and learn more. Thanks.

Random off topic question... Whatever happened to the poster Ed Mahmmoud or something like that. I haven’t seen him around a couple years.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:22 pm Random off topic question... Whatever happened to the poster Ed Mahmmoud or something like that. I haven’t seen him around a couple years.

Wondered the same thing about wxman57.

harp wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:26 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:22 pm Random off topic question... Whatever happened to the poster Ed Mahmmoud or something like that. I haven’t seen him around a couple years.

Wondered the same thing about wxman57.

Oh, he’s still around. He’s been traveling a lot lately to Illinois apparently.

Wxman57 is around. He frequents storm2k more often though.
Way back I wonder about how "Mr.T" is doing.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:22 pm Random off topic question... Whatever happened to the poster Ed Mahmmoud or something like that. I haven’t seen him around a couple years.

Unfortunately, we had to ban Ed a couple years back due to some behind the scenes issues. While the conversation was interesting at times, it became too toxic for the forum and we felt it was negatively impacting the site as a whole. It was a tough decision because we never want to ban anyone, but at the end of the day it was impacting others and creating an environment that was not suitable for this site.

Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:20 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:22 pm Random off topic question... Whatever happened to the poster Ed Mahmmoud or something like that. I haven’t seen him around a couple years.

Unfortunately, we had to ban Ed a couple years back due to some behind the scenes issues. While the conversation was interesting at times, it became too toxic for the forum and we felt it was negatively impacting the site as a whole. It was a tough decision because we never want to ban anyone, but at the end of the day it was impacting others and creating an environment that was not suitable for this site.

10-4. Sorry to hear that.

Growing consensus that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event will unfold around Christmas with a majority of the ensembles individual members onboard as well as the CFSv2 Climate Guidance. The deterministic 12Z GFS certainly suggest a blocking regime develops after Christmas towards New Years Eve. Such a blocking at the High Latitudes of Greenland and near the North Pole suggest a deep cold trough develops across Western and Central Canada and the United States allowing cold air currently bottled up over Siberia to shift across the North Pole bringing the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere to our part of the World. This is just one of many Hemispheric factors aliening that may allow much colder air to anchor in January and with some help from a favorable MJO Phase 6/7/8 possible, unsettled weather may accompany that cold air. Still a tremendous amount of uncertainty and volatility beyond 5 days, so we will continue to monitor.

Wednesday mid morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Soggy and foggy weather over the last 36 hours will give way to a frontal passage tonight.

Fog that has once again blanketed the area this morning is slowly lifting with visibilities improving. Coastal trough is slowing working its way up the upper TX coast with the majority of the rainfall now over deep east TX into LA. However a fairly strong upper level trough over C TX is quickly rotating toward the region and lift will begin to increase over the area over the next few hours allowing additional showers to develop. There is really no instability in place due to the low clouds and fog along with surface temperatures in the 50’s, but as the very cold air aloft spreads over the region this afternoon, a few thunderstorms may be possible.

A strong cold front will cross the area this evening and strong winds are likely on Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens over the region. Sustained speeds of 25-30mph with gusts of 40-45mph will be possible. Gale Watch is already up for all of the waters and this will be upgraded to a gale warning later today. Cold air advection on Thursday will limit the temperature rise to the upper 50’s.

Fairly calm and uneventful weather on tap through the weekend into early next week. A deep trough will begin to develop over the SW US by late this weekend which will result in a prolonged period of onshore flow across the region for much of early to mid next week. This will result in a fairly warm Christmas period for the region with lows near 60 and highs in the 70’s under generally cloudy skies and a chance of rain. Will need to watch dewpoints beyond Sunday as they creep up and over nearshore water temperatures for sea fog development.

Quick question here. What is the best way to visualize the coastal troughs that are present around here so much this time of year. I have attempted to look on the models but am having a hard time picking them out. Is it just solely based on surface observations?