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tireman4 wrote:tireman4 wrote:When is recon going in there, after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?
Ok, I have answered my own question and I think Srain alluded to this earlier..sorry...
On Wednesday morning the first mission in BOC but on Tuesday the Gulfstream jet will be up.
CODE: SELECT ALL
EMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.
My guess would be they would wait until it re-emerges over water tonight or tomorrow morning to see where the "center" winds up. I could be wrong though.Stormrider wrote:Given the timimg of a potential landfall and low forecast confidence, do you think NHC will issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone Formation Advisory today?
It's the state of the science. Until yesterday, models were sending this into Mexico. That said, it hasn't formed. There's no guarantee of anything more than rain -- until there is. This is a computer model hurricane. Until a center develops -- a closed low -- there's no storm to track or forecast.BiggieSmalls wrote:Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..
Code: Select all
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 22 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-083
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 49
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0000Z
B NOAA2 0809A HARVEY B. NOAA9 0909A HARVEY
C. 23/1400Z C. 23/1730Z
D. 22.2N 92.8W D. NA
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2130Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z A. 24/0600Z
B AFXXX 1009A HARVEY B. NOAA2 1109A HARVEY
C. 23/2115Z C. 24/0200Z
D. 22.7N 93.2W D. 23.2N 93.6W
E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
A. 24/1200Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA9 1209A HARVEY B. AFXXX 1309A HARVEY
C. 24/0530Z C. 24/0945Z
D. NA D. 23.8N 94.1W
E. NA E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES STARTING AT 24/2100Z
B. A P-3 MISSION FOR 24/1800Z
brooksgarner wrote:It's the state of the science. Until yesterday, models were sending this into Mexico. That said, it hasn't formed. There's no guarantee of anything more than rain -- until there is. This is a computer model hurricane. Until a center develops -- a closed low -- there's no storm to track or forecast.BiggieSmalls wrote:Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..
30yrs ago there'd be no forecast even today. It would be a 48hr surprise. At least today we get 72hrs warning.
A recent example of a short-fuse hurricane is Humberto in 2007. Look that up on a Wikipedia.
Yes, I'm sure you and many others were here in southeast Texas for that one. (I was in South Carolina, watching from my sunny perch.) Computer models are such a blessing... and a curse. Humberto was a great example of one missed by the models, reminiscent of times before computer modelling. At least with Harvey (thanks entirely to models) we have a good hunch that we're going to see something develop beyond, "scattered weekend downpours."Texaspirate11 wrote:brooksgarner wrote:It's the state of the science. Until yesterday, models were sending this into Mexico. That said, it hasn't formed. There's no guarantee of anything more than rain -- until there is. This is a computer model hurricane. Until a center develops -- a closed low -- there's no storm to track or forecast.BiggieSmalls wrote:Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..
30yrs ago there'd be no forecast even today. It would be a 48hr surprise. At least today we get 72hrs warning.
A recent example of a short-fuse hurricane is Humberto in 2007. Look that up on a Wikipedia.
Brooks - we lived thru Humberto - thank you.
We don't like surprises in this neck of the woods....
Yep.TexasBreeze wrote:Starting to fire storms on its nw side. It actually looks like it won't take much time to get more organized once it pulls away from land.