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Wind shear and dry stable air surrounding 92L have taken a toll overnight as it entered the Eastern Caribbean Sea. We will see if the wave can regenerate some convection later this week as it nears the Western/NW Caribbean Sea. I see the overnight models completely lost the idea of development and the NHC has lowered the chances of development over the next 5 days.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located over eastern Caribbean have decreased since yesterday.
Although strong winds, possibly to tropical storm force, could still
be occurring in association with this system, development of the
wave is unlikely while it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea
this week. This disturbance could continue to produce periods of
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser
Antilles early today, and over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later
today and on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development of this system after that time while
the system moves west-northwestward into the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

No real surprises on the beating wind shear laid on 92L.The NHC lowering chances of development should come as no surprise either but it still bears watching as it continues its westward track toward the western Caribbean.

the extrordinarily long-lived-99L/TD9/Hermine is winding down, not soon enough for the east coast. A great facebook post by Bryan Norcross: https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcro ... 3926296954 and my fav line from it;

• "Maybe we need to blur everybody’s phone when Mother Nature is conspiring to make accurate forecasts impossible. That way people would have to look for more than a phone-size forecast, and will be less disappointed when the icon or the tweet is wrong."

and just in case you've never heard of him, here's a little history on his distinguished carreer

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Norcross

cperk wrote:No real surprises on the beating wind shear laid on 92L.The NHC lowering chances of development should come as no surprise either but it still bears watching as it continues its westward track toward the western Caribbean.

And there is no guarantee that this storm, if it develops, will go into Texas, if that's what anyone on this forum is thinking. ATTM, there's not even a tropical depression yet. All the models remain divergent, and 92L, given it develops, could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Mexico. And that is if it even develops - which is more likely to not happen than happen. It is too early to say where this storm/invest will go, so Houstonians shouldn't get too worried----yet.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Development of this system, if any, will likely be
slow to occur during the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a little more favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while this system
moves westward and then west-northwestward into the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila

INVEST 93L has been designated for the tropical disturbance just NE of Caribbean Islands.

srainhoutx wrote:INVEST 93L has been designated for the tropical disturbance just NE of Caribbean Islands.

May it have a short and insignificant life.

Watching ET Hermine spin out into its wreckage is pretty cool. Look how she dragged that drier air through the Carolinas and Georgia.

A little more activity this morning across the Tropics with 3 disturbances and one that may increase our rain chances early next week as it moves West out of the Bahamas through the Florida Straights and meanders toward Texas.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. This disturbance is
expected to move toward the west-northwest and then northwest over
the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Cloudiness and showers located just north of the northern Leeward
Islands are spreading west-northwestward with no signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. A small area of disturbed weather associated with a weak low
has formed between Cuba and the western Bahamas. This activity is
expected to spread westward across southern Florida and the Florida
Keys later today and Saturday. Upper-level winds are not favorable
for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Avila

Floater satellite imagery has been activated over the Florida Straights tropical disturbance. We may see INVEST 95L designated later today as a precaution just in case something attempts to spin up quickly over the Gulf in a day or so.

Will this disturbance continue to move toward Texas?

Rip76 wrote:Will this disturbance continue to move toward Texas?

Key West radar and an overnight ASCAT pass suggests a broad surface low is moving generally W to WNW in the mean Easterly low level flow. It appears the surface low reflection will enter the SE Gulf something tomorrow and continue moving in our general direction next week.

This is now Invest 92L.

Very early track guidance...

up to 40 percent!!!


Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

So Forecaster Avila goes from 10% to a 40% Chance of development and states it may become a Depression later today or tomorrow. Did wxman57 take a day off today?

As is mentioned in the NHC outlook wind shear over the gulf for the next few days does not look too friendly for a fledgling system. I wouldn't put too much worry into it right now.

yeah well same thing happen to hermine and we all saw what happen..

Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF suggest an Upper Level Anticyclone (Upper Ridge) does develop over 92L as it enters the SE Gulf in the next day or two.

Hermine started out as a frail looking system in the gulf, but found a little window of favorability and tried to make a run towards a cat 2 hurricane quickly. Never know.....
The tutt low around our area won't help it though.