May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May
Very concerned about that training situation setting up west to east. *** Turn around don't drown***
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
After this supercell passes we need to really watch out for flooding. You can even see on radar the moisture axis is still to the west (Bellville area), just pumping in moisture...
djjordan wrote:Very concerned about that training situation setting up west to east. *** Turn around don't drown***
Flooding in College Station.
Navasota is getting hammered.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT
* AT 428 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONTGOMERY TO NEAR PINEHURST TO NEAR
STAGECOACH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...TOMBALL...WILLIS...PINEHURST...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING...OAK
RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...CUT AND SHOOT...
NEW WAVERLY...MONTGOMERY...STAGECOACH...WOODLOCH...TODD MISSION...LAKE
CONROE DAM...PORTER HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN AND HOOKS AIRPORT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT
* AT 428 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONTGOMERY TO NEAR PINEHURST TO NEAR
STAGECOACH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...TOMBALL...WILLIS...PINEHURST...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING...OAK
RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...CUT AND SHOOT...
NEW WAVERLY...MONTGOMERY...STAGECOACH...WOODLOCH...TODD MISSION...LAKE
CONROE DAM...PORTER HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN AND HOOKS AIRPORT.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#AMA,BR ... 70459/1110
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
441 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Large MCS that developed over the northern parts of the CWA earl-
ier this afternoon will be continuing to move E/SE into the even-
ing hrs. Reports of tornadic damage have been largely confined to
Bryan/College Station area but reports of flooding have been more
widespread over Washington, Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, and Madison
counties. Given the current trends, not expecting things to quiet
down until late this evening. Of concern is the track of this MCS
toward Harris county during the next few hrs. Also seeing another
shortwave (per WV imagery) moving in from the W/SW...with an ext-
rapolated timing for this evening. A break from all the action is
progged for the overnight hours.
However...
Models are hitting SE TX with more unsettled wx for tomorrow with
another disturbance moving in from the SW. Upper jet dynamics and
low-level jet structure are progged to be a bit more favorable as
the very moist airmass remains in place. The main uncertainty may
be how unstable/worked over we will be (in the wake of the storms
today). But given how wet the pattern has been have opted to keep
POPS high for tomorrow.
The forecast for this upcoming holiday weekend looks to remain an
active one (though not as active as today/possibly tomorrow). The
seabreeze should be the main focus with daytime heating. Possible
embedded shortwaves within the persistent SW flow aloft could add
more lift (storms) to this scenario. Did lean more heavily on the
ECMWF in the extended. 41
&&
.MARINE...
The tight pressure gradient between a deep low over the OK/TX
Panhandles and a high over the southeastern U.S. will maintain a
strong southeasterly flow through Friday. Winds will likely
strengthen to SCA levels early this evening. seas are running 4 to 6
feet and should increase to 5 to 8 feet on Friday
A persistent fetch from the Western Carribean combined with the
strong on shore flow will raise tide levels to near 3.5 feet above
MLLW on Friday morning. A coastal flood advisory will likely be
necessary on Friday morning's high tide along the Bolivar Peninsula.
Memorial Day weekend weather will be less active...a 10-15 knot
southeast wind over gradually lowering seas...3 to 4 foot wave
heights by late Saturday night through Sunday PM. Memorial Day will
be tranquil...very low rain chances and a near 10 knot onshore wind
over average 2 to 3 foot wave heights. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 83 71 88 72 / 70 80 50 40 10
Houston (IAH) 75 85 74 88 73 / 60 70 40 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 83 77 83 78 / 40 50 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...
Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
441 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Large MCS that developed over the northern parts of the CWA earl-
ier this afternoon will be continuing to move E/SE into the even-
ing hrs. Reports of tornadic damage have been largely confined to
Bryan/College Station area but reports of flooding have been more
widespread over Washington, Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, and Madison
counties. Given the current trends, not expecting things to quiet
down until late this evening. Of concern is the track of this MCS
toward Harris county during the next few hrs. Also seeing another
shortwave (per WV imagery) moving in from the W/SW...with an ext-
rapolated timing for this evening. A break from all the action is
progged for the overnight hours.
However...
Models are hitting SE TX with more unsettled wx for tomorrow with
another disturbance moving in from the SW. Upper jet dynamics and
low-level jet structure are progged to be a bit more favorable as
the very moist airmass remains in place. The main uncertainty may
be how unstable/worked over we will be (in the wake of the storms
today). But given how wet the pattern has been have opted to keep
POPS high for tomorrow.
The forecast for this upcoming holiday weekend looks to remain an
active one (though not as active as today/possibly tomorrow). The
seabreeze should be the main focus with daytime heating. Possible
embedded shortwaves within the persistent SW flow aloft could add
more lift (storms) to this scenario. Did lean more heavily on the
ECMWF in the extended. 41
&&
.MARINE...
The tight pressure gradient between a deep low over the OK/TX
Panhandles and a high over the southeastern U.S. will maintain a
strong southeasterly flow through Friday. Winds will likely
strengthen to SCA levels early this evening. seas are running 4 to 6
feet and should increase to 5 to 8 feet on Friday
A persistent fetch from the Western Carribean combined with the
strong on shore flow will raise tide levels to near 3.5 feet above
MLLW on Friday morning. A coastal flood advisory will likely be
necessary on Friday morning's high tide along the Bolivar Peninsula.
Memorial Day weekend weather will be less active...a 10-15 knot
southeast wind over gradually lowering seas...3 to 4 foot wave
heights by late Saturday night through Sunday PM. Memorial Day will
be tranquil...very low rain chances and a near 10 knot onshore wind
over average 2 to 3 foot wave heights. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 83 71 88 72 / 70 80 50 40 10
Houston (IAH) 75 85 74 88 73 / 60 70 40 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 83 77 83 78 / 40 50 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...
Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
PWATS now over 2.3" west of Houston according to SPC Mesoanalysis.
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3497
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Kinda crazy how much this reminds me of the tax day flooding but further north. Line is pretty much training west to east like last time. It will be interesting to see how this line progresses tonight and if it weakens.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Gentle rain has turned into deluge of rain!-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1009
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Yeah normally outflow boundaries like to stall out and fire up at night in these tropical like atmosphere situations...Andrew wrote:Kinda crazy how much this reminds me of the tax day flooding but further north. Line is pretty much training west to east like last time. It will be interesting to see how this line progresses tonight and if it weakens.
Last edited by TexasBreeze on Thu May 26, 2016 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yes, the radar similarities are scary. I'm really concerned about the timing of this too. It's only just after 5 in the evening, so it will be a fight between the line trying to push southward and the inflow cranking-up from the south, pushing up against it but feeding it warm, moist air.Andrew wrote:Kinda crazy how much this reminds me of the tax day flooding but further north. Line is pretty much training west to east like last time. It will be interesting to see how this line progresses tonight and if it weakens.
Oh and on top of that, there is still an incoming S/W on the way tonight from the Southwest.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Yes I am also quite concerned that very heavy rains may move slowly into the Houston metro area this evening. A very impressive satellite image this evening of the storms N and NW of Houston.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Update from Jeff:
Over a foot of rainfall in the last 2-2.5 hours over Washington County, tremendous flooding is ongoing.
A dangerous flash flood event is unfolding over SE TX. This is life threatening flash flood situation.
Classic flash flood event is unfolding with well defined low level boundary W to E and strong 30kt low level inflow. Hourly rainfall rates of 4-6 inches in some cells producing tremendous flash flooding.
Over a foot of rainfall in the last 2-2.5 hours over Washington County, tremendous flooding is ongoing.
A dangerous flash flood event is unfolding over SE TX. This is life threatening flash flood situation.
Classic flash flood event is unfolding with well defined low level boundary W to E and strong 30kt low level inflow. Hourly rainfall rates of 4-6 inches in some cells producing tremendous flash flooding.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity