September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Looks like Summer's last stand is the next week or so. I can't wait to kick down that Summer wall and head into Fall. Free at last, free at last, Texas Summers can kiss my ***!
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srainhoutx
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It looks like dry air in working its way S across the Region in the wake of the Coastal low. The next chance of rain looks like this weekend as PW's increase to near the 2.0 range and a wave of low pressure develops along a weak frontal boundary sagging S on Saturday into Sunday. That front may linger into Monday before the frontal wave of low pressure finally pushes it offshore and dry air returns. The westerly's are beginning to show the transition to a more fall like pattern and as we begin October, the first legitimate shot of cold air will begin as the fronts become more active.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote:It looks like dry air in working its way S across the Region in the wake of the Coastal low. The next chance of rain looks like this weekend as PW's increase to near the 2.0 range and a wave of low pressure develops along a weak frontal boundary sagging S on Saturday into Sunday. That front may linger into Monday before the frontal wave of low pressure finally pushes it offshore and dry air returns. The westerly's are beginning to show the transition to a more fall like pattern and as we begin October, the first legitimate shot of cold air will begin as the fronts become more active.

Oh my heart be still.... I just read "cold air"
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kayci
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kayci wrote:Ok, is this sea fog rolling in off the GOM? or is Texas City on fire? :shock:
Ah HAH! I wasn't in a dreamland after all!!!!!!! This from the Galveston Daily News.......


TEXAS CITY — A BP spokesman said the source of smoke seen coming from its chemical plant in Texas City on Monday wasn't a fire. It was fog from mosquito truck in the area.
Texas City emergency management officials reported that a "whiff" of smoke coming from the chemical plant on FM 519, was from a small fire that started when crews were working on a unit that had been offline for about 10 years.
Texas City’s emergency management coordinator Bruce Clawson said he got his information from officials at the chemical plant.
It wasn’t a fire BP spokesman Scott Dean said in an email Tuesday morning.
“There was no fire or smoke from combustion,” Dean said. “It was residual fog from mosquito abatement.”
unome
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so is that a newly planted water oak Ed or were they able to salvage the one that was dropping leaves ? Sad that we have lost so many trees :cry: I hope yours was able to be helped.
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srainhoutx
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The first Slight Risk for severe storms of the fall season appears to be ahead for the Texas Panhandle. While this front doesn't appear to have enough punch to make it too far S with the upper dynamics further N, rain chances do increase Sunday into Monday as the front stalls and washes out as we end September. There are some indications that first ligitamate cold front of the fall season may arrive the second week of October. But that is for a new month and a new Topic.... ;)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL EJECT ONTO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z/SAT...AS A PROMINENT RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ACCELERATE BY THE LAST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...LIKELY AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
OVERTAKE A LEE TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FRI EVENING/NIGHT WITHIN A FAVORABLY COUPLED
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A VIGOROUS ULJ AND A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
THE LATTER WILL YIELD AN INFLUX OF RICHER WRN GULF MOISTURE AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A PLUME OF WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING
FROM WRN TX INTO SWRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MODEST...STEEP LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL YIELD INITIAL HAZARDS OF SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES FRI EVENING.


...MN..
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING
AT 12Z/FRI WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG LLJ OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY D2. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT
SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. BUT WITH NEAR RECORD-WARM
TEMPERATURES...INHIBITION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK BUOYANCY
SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR GIVEN A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS...BUT
AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD YIELD A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE. WITH
THIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR...AND GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES WITH GUIDANCE OVER THE DEGREE OF FRONTAL ACCELERATION
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING...WILL DEFER ON POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK
ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS.. 09/26/2013
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Dry weather of late will transition to more humidity and rain chances over the weekend.

The next cool front/trough will arrive into the plains this weekend and slowly drag into SE TX on Sunday. Limited moisture will make a comeback to the region starting Friday and deepen on Saturday with the potential for a few showers as early as Saturday. Influences of a retreating upper level ridge may result in better rain chances by Sunday as moisture pools over the region and the weak boundary approaches. Think scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening possibly lingering into Monday over the southern part of the area and the near Gulf waters.

Rainfall amounts should average .5 to 1.0 inch over the weekend with the best chances north of I-10 where the best potential for the actual front and lift will be located.
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Ptarmigan
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Nice to see more rain, so the reservoirs get more water. 8-) :twisted:
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srainhoutx
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It appears areas along and W of the I-45 Corridor will see the better chances of rain and possibly some isolated storms late Saturday into Monday. We are already seeing increasing moisture return from the Gulf surging N along the Lower and Middle Texas Coast into the western areas of Houston. Showers are developing S of Freeport and moving inland. As HGX mentioned this morning, we will need to monitor and cold pooling from outflow of storms to our N and any mesoscale driven activity mainly on Sunday.
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Katdaddy
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The Gulf moisture has returned! Humidity 73%, dew point at 77F, and tropical cumulus floating inland.
unome
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I'm rather liking this HGX Facebook post & not even hitting 90 today was a pleasure <3

With the front moving toward the area, here is the rainfall forecast for through Monday. Overall most areas will have about 0.5-1.5 inches of rain. We will be closely monitoring the potential for localized heavy rainfall - especially Sunday night and Monday across the southern parts of SE Tx as some computer models are beginning to suggest.


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srainhoutx
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HGX issue Flood Advisory for Grimes, Waller & Washington Counties.
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srainhoutx
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HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Waller and Washington Counties. 3-6 inches of rain have fallen with an additional 2-4 inches possible. Those with travel plans out 290 need to expect flooding issues.
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djjordan
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY...
EAST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* AT 1110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA FROM NEAR PHFLUGERVILLE TO COUPLAND.
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER TWO INCHES PER HOUR WERE INDICATED IN THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS. IN ADDITION A COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED OVER 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN WITHIN THIS CLUSTER 4 NORTHEAST OF
PFLUGERVILLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PFLUGERVILLE...TAYLOR...WINDEMERE...COUPLAND...MANOR AND THRALL.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Rainfall continues to sit over Austin Metro. Looks to me like an MCS may be forming. Gonna have to keep an eye on this closely as the whole mess pushes toward SE Texas. Milam county now under a Flash Flood Warning as well.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MILAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 1242 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKDALE. THE
STORMS PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. VERY
HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 245
AM CDT. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN...AND
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. OFFICIALS REPORT NUMEROUS
ROADS CLOSED IN THE ROCKDALE AREA.

* THE STORM PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
ROCKDALE AND RURAL AREAS OF MILAM COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Keep up to date on low water crossing closings in Austin here.........

http://www.atxfloods.com/
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Northeast of Metro San Antonio , New Flash Flood Warning issued. Very heavy rainfall occuring and moving very slowly.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BEXAR COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 AM CDT.

* AT 142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN COMAL COUNTY. THESE
STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 4 TO 5 INCHES PER
HOUR.


* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CANYON LAKE DAM...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...BULVERDE...
CIBOLO...FISCHER...GARDEN RIDGE...GERONIMO...LIVE OAK...MARION...
MCQUEENEY...SCHERTZ...SELMA...SPRING BRANCH...TIMBERWOOD PARK AND
ZORN.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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And west of the San Antonio metro area as well as it has been raining heavily in the same spots for most of the night. Turn Around Don't Drown!!!!!!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
156 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* AT 152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE MIDNIGHT OF OVER 2.5 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR RIO
MEDINA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CASTROVILLE...DEVINE...HONDO...BADER...BIRY...DUNLAY...MICO...
NATALIA...NEW FOUNTAIN...NOONAN...PEARSON...QUIHI...RIO MEDINA AND
YANCEY.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Numerous flood reports in the area ..... This whole area of rain is moving very slowly so keep alert to changing conditions.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CALDWELL COUNTY...
NORTHERN GONZALES COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

* AT 310 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS GUADALUPE
AND CALDWELL COUNTIES...NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY...AND NORTHERN
GONZALES COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
OF AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES PER HOUR FROM THESE STORMS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GONZALES...LOCKHART...LULING...SEGUIN...STOCKDALE...FENTRESS...
KINGSBURY...NEW BERLIN...NIXON...PALMETO AND PANDORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Anymore rain that develops in these same areas is going to runoff quickly. Keep alert this morning!!!!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BEXAR COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT.

* AT 419 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS NEW ACTIVITY...THE RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE QUICK TO RUNOFF AND
CAUSE FLOODING.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CANYON LAKE
DAM...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...BULVERDE...CIBOLO...
FISCHER...GARDEN RIDGE...GERONIMO...LIVE OAK...MARION...
MCQUEENEY...SCHERTZ...SELMA...SPRING BRANCH...TIMBERWOOD PARK AND
ZORN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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