January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[TexasMetBlake]

Well it appears as though it's a battle of the models now. 0z Euro shows it more east with a weaker high. 12z GFS shows a significant outbreak here in Texas. The take home point here I guess is that the GFS has been much more consistent with the synoptic pattern that the Euro. If you remember back to 0z yesterday, it was a crappy run. It depicted a zonal flow and a weaker high. 12z showed the holy grail of set ups for arctic air to spill south---including a stunning 1070 mb high. This mornings 0z run again reverted back to the air going east and a much weaker high. So the Euro is kinda all over right now. Lets be thankful the GFS is so consistent.

[brazoria121]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

See my "sticky" thread above about interpreting these maps. That precip you see on the map may actually be 12 hours prior to the temperature contours reaching the positions on that map.

The 0c line reaches us at 168 and does not leave until beyond 300. That's definitely snow

what date would that be mr t?

[Mr. T]

what date would that be mr t?

looks like the first arctic front would reach us next monday or tuesday...

[srainhoutx]

Closed -30's showing up now. Very impressive cold, folks...

[snowman65]

Mr T. are you saying we are expecting more than 1 arctic front?

[Andrew]

Mr T. are you saying we are expecting more than 1 arctic front?

Most likely it will be a stepping down process.

[Mr. T]

Mr T. are you saying we are expecting more than 1 arctic front?

The kind of upper level pattern being shown on global models the past few days supports a pattern that would allow reinforcing shots of cold air to shoot straight south out of Canada for a period... It does look like we will see the first initial shot of cold air around monday/tuesday of next week, with an even colder shot of air arriving thereafter (if the upper level pattern remains as predicted)

This run has the coldest 850s predicted for IAH that we have seen yet...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is cold but not record-setting. Perhaps low 20s at IAH next week. It's actually a bit "warmer" than yesterday's runs. Has a 1035mb high dropping into eastern Oklahoma. Cold, but nowhere near 1983-1989. At least that's the 12Z GFS run. I wouldn't even begin to speculate on the potential for any winter-type precip 7-12 days out.

[Mr. T]

Thickness values fall below 550 at 168 and do not reach that threshold again until 348.

[snowman65]

Does this have the potential of staying below freezing for several (3-4) days for the golden triangle?

[Mr. T]

12Z GFS is cold but not record-setting. Perhaps low 20s at IAH next week. It's actually a bit "warmer" than yesterday's runs. Has a 1035mb high dropping into eastern Oklahoma. Cold, but nowhere near 1983-1989. At least that's the 12Z GFS run. I wouldn't even begin to speculate on the potential for any winter-type precip 7-12 days out.

I don't know... The upper level pattern being depicted by the 12z GFS is a lot more favorable for some extreme cold air to make it here than many of the runs yesterday. I guess it's just because I don't pay attention to surface features beyond model truncation like everyone else, but it really looks the same to me... If we were going by 850 temps, for instance, it's the coldest we've seen than any run yesterday

I guess it's just up to one's interpretation... I think surface temp plots are useless after day 7, much like forecasting frozen precip beyond that period, as you say...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z CMC (Canadian) is in agreement. That model suggests moisture across N TX near the 168 time frame as well, for what it's worth.

[harpman]

Can I ask for someone's opinion on the effect for southeast Louisiana? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Can I ask for someone's opinion on the effect for southeast Louisiana? Thanks.

It appears the same for our Louisiana neighbors as well, harpman. This looks to be an event that will effect the entire CONUS in some form or fashion.

[ticka1]

oh man not sure if im right or not but is the 12z what i think it is around hour 228?

What does it show?

[harpman]

Can I ask for someone's opinion on the effect for southeast Louisiana? Thanks.

It appears the same for our Louisiana neighbors as well, harpman. This looks to be an event that will effect the entire CONUS in some form or fashion.

Thank you sir.

[brazoria121]

im new here and all and trying to learn..if its not to much trouble would someone tell me what CONUS means? thanks!

[harpman]

im new here and all and trying to learn..if its not to much trouble would someone tell me what CONUS means? thanks!

Continental United States, I believe.

[tireman4]

Contiguous United States (CONUS)

[harpman]

Ok, so I was close......